Notes

A list of options includes a call option with a strike price of 57.5 and a price of 0.35, a put option with a strike price of 40 and a price of 0.5, a call option with a strike price of 60 and a price of 0.2, and a put option with a strike price of 37.5 and a price of 0.25. The current options are Sep11C57.5 at 0.38 and P40 at 0.55. The catalog is from Sep 10. The same kind of options had a median absolute value of 13.153864 at 8 in the morning. Options from Oct 1, 2024, were excluded due to timing ambiguity, but the reaction on Oct 2, which was an increase of 2.571196 percent, was included. The current mean intrinsic value is 1.498726, and the premium for P40 is 0.55, which is 2.724957 times the mean intrinsic value. The residual value and fills are unknown. option_contracts ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-bars

A news scan found the following data: four common CAG/LW reaction dates are 2024-12-19, 2025-04-03, 2025-12-19, and 2026-04-01, with a Pearson correlation of 0.985243. This is not a forecast or proof of a causal relationship. The current price of LW is 40.55, with a cost of 0.05. The mapped mean intrinsic value is 1.498726, with a premium of 2.724957 times the cost, and 2.497877 times the cost. Using a logarithmic growth grid with 1000 fractions from 0 to 0.99 yields a naive half Kelly of 0.1218919 of risk capital. The eligibility gate is 3/8, and the premium is 55, which is greater than 51.0594, so the overrides are approved, with a quantity of 0. The CAG has a negative intrinsic expected net, which results in a half Kelly of 0. The actual option time value, fees, and executions are missing. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; numpy

A news scan found the message 'There are no upcoming events scheduled at this time' on the September 12 primary calendar. The most recent results were from August 6, with no new dated event. On September 11, the price was $11.98, with a volume of 45,313,319. No validated same-kind future event option study was found, and no contract was selected. As a result, the liquid crypto proxy entry was rejected, but this does not mean the company will never hold a new event. A bounded search by CIFR found a business update from May 5, but no new primary date was found. The search initially looked at the wrong investor relations website, iraliasthen, but was then corrected to investors.cipherdigital.com, and a date gap was retained. https://ir.mara.com/news-events/ir-calendar ; /data/stock-bars

The issuer of NOK planned to release its Q3 report on October 22, 2026, which was reverified on September 12, 2025. On September 11, the price of NOK was 11.13, with a volume of 87,090,351, ranking it 2nd in the price and turnover filter. The October 16 expiry would precede the event, so it requires an expiry date of October 30 or later. There were no matched ADR events in this study, and no priced contract hurdle, so it is a watch-only situation, not a trade. The reaction to the release will be separated into Finnish-local versus US ADR, and will need to be normalized for FX, Infinera, and discontinued operations. There is no pricing edge from day volume. https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporations-financial-calendar-for-2026/ ; /data/stock-bars

As of April 1, 2026, for the third quarter period, volume increased by 7%, but this was offset by a 7% decrease in price and mix, resulting in constant currency sales being flat. The company had to write off 32.5 million USD due to excess potato, and International EBITDA, which is a measure of a company's overall financial performance, was 18.5 million, down from 75.6 million. For the nine-month period, operating cash flow was 595.6 million, up by 110.3 million, but this included a 130 million benefit from working capital. Capital expenditures were 256.6 million, down from 306.5 million, resulting in free cash flow of 339 million. The company has 57.5 million in cash and 1.26 billion in revolver availability, which is a type of loan. This update is based on historical baseline data, not the July update, and the better free cash flow is partly due to capital expenditures and working capital, not margin proof. https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/9f03ff19-1e8d-4002-ad45-ea16a804db88

On July 15, 2026, the issuer of CAG, which is a company's fiscal year that ended on May 31, reported the following financial results: free cash flow, which is the amount of cash a company has after paying for capital expenditures, was 978.7 million, compared to 1302.6 million, a decrease of 24.9 percent. Operating cash flow, which is the amount of cash a company generates from its operations, was 1402.1 million, compared to 1691.9 million, a decrease of 17.1 percent. Capital expenditures, which are expenses for things like new equipment or buildings, were 423.4 million, compared to 389.3 million, an increase of 8.8 percent. The company's net debt, which is the amount of debt minus cash, was 7.1 billion, and its leverage, which is a measure of debt compared to equity, was 3.83 times. For the fiscal year 2027, the company is guiding for organic sales, which is sales growth without considering acquisitions or currency changes, to be between -3 percent and -1 percent, adjusted margin, which is profit as a percentage of sales, to be between 10 percent and 10.5 percent, earnings per share, which is profit divided by the number of shares, to be between 1.4 and 1.5, capital expenditures to be 550 million, and net leverage to be around 4 times. In the fourth quarter, volume decreased by 1.6 percent, and price-mix, which is the combination of price and volume changes, increased by 1.6 percent. The 53rd week of the year, which is an extra week that occurs every few years, added 7.7 percent to the reported growth, which explains why the reported growth was not flat like the organic growth. The issuer has a positive bias, meaning they are optimistic, and the actual financial results for the period are different from the guidance, which is the forecast of future financial results. https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-prn-122958

A news scan found the headline about an edge test for CAG and LW strike gates. The test looked at the median absolute percentage change of CAG's morning earnings from July 2024 to July 2026, which was 2.064410%. The test also looked at the prices of certain options, including Sep11S14.60 and Oct9C15.5, which required a change of 8.904110% and 7.876712% respectively, including a assumed cost of 0.05%. Another option, P14.5, required a change of -4.041096%, and the current trade of 0.20Sep11 required a change of -5.136986%. The test also looked at LW's morning events from July 2024 to July 2026, which had a median percentage change of 13.153864%. The prices of certain options, including S47.85 and Oct16C57.5, required a change of 21.003135% and 21.065831% respectively. The mean mapped intrinsic value of LW's P40 option was 1.498726 USD per share, which is 2.724957 times the current premium and 2.497877 times the assumed all-in cost. However, this is not the actual option expectancy. The test also found that there was no 40% pass or documented 3x expected payoff. LW's data from October 1, 2024, was omitted due to release hour ambiguity, but adding the reaction from October 2, 2024, yields a median percentage change of 10.017371%, which also fails. The dates for CAG's and LW's earnings releases are August 31, 2026, and September 8, 2026, respectively. The expiries are 9 to 10 days after the releases, and the default exits are September 29 and October 5, during regular trading hours. The historical originals recorded were 25518+ and 25563+, and the sources were option contracts, https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962, https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars. The closes were not executable asks. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt

A news scan found the following data line: a CAG Monte Carlo stale-put diagnostic with 100000 paths, ticket all-in at 49, mean terminal at 107.74546267271414, probability of loss at 0.88596, probability of all three losing at 0.47218, and 5% terminal at 40.008153034300875, with a warning that the results are based on an iid empirical intrinsic proxy, not an option outcome or forecast, and that the rejected ticket exceeds the 5% risk cap, excluding residual time. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt

A data scan found the following grid results for CAG RSI, which is a technical indicator that measures stock price momentum, with entry and exit points: a list of 9 items was found, including train and holdout periods, with return and drawdown percentages, win rates, and number of trades, such as entry at 30, exit at 50, in the train period, with a return of -33.76901026399639 percent and a drawdown of -39.56547422540567 percent, with a win rate of 20 percent and 5 trades, and entry at 35, exit at 45, in the train period, with a return of -17.541519001971075 percent and a drawdown of -25.533330521404608 percent, with a win rate of 62.5 percent and 16 trades. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt

A data scan found the following results for the CAG RSI grid train and holdout: the results include entry and exit points, periods, returns, drawdowns, win rates, and the number of trades. The results are as follows: for an entry of 25 and exit of 45 in the train period, the return was -8.950137134305066, the drawdown was -16.079987633539172, the win rate was 40, and the number of trades was 5. For the same entry and exit in the holdout period, the return was 2.516030597608926, the drawdown was -4.954640614096295, the win rate was 100, and the number of trades was 1. Other results include an entry of 25 and exit of 50 in the train period with a return of -15.545715827514496, an entry of 25 and exit of 50 in the holdout period with a return of -2.4653821567819247, an entry of 25 and exit of 55 in the train period with a return of -18.25950439683919, an entry of 25 and exit of 55 in the holdout period with a return of -1.093688789630812, an entry of 30 and exit of 45 in the train period with a return of -16.628736413629177, and an entry of 30 and exit of 45 in the holdout period with a return of -5.186436639730926. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt

On September 9, the issuer repaid in full approximately 5.16 million USD of original discount convertible notes ahead of the September 11 maturity. On September 11, the stock price was 5.93 USD, with a volume of 108562376. A strong turnover does not make a future event, as the repayment was already announced. There is no same kind study and no qualified contract, so we reject pre-event entry. The first order discount conversion has been removed, the second order financing runway depends on cash after repayment, and third order new capital raises could return dilution. We do not assume all financing risk is gone. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1560293/000121390026098232/ea030488401ex99-1.htm ; /data/stock-bars

On September 10, the issuer offered $10.50 per share in cash. On September 11, the price was $10.41, with a volume of 115,860,061, resulting in a 0.864553% gross spread. The expected closing date is at the end of the calendar year 2026, although the exact date has not been decided. The acquisition is subject to majority tender, HSR, which means Hart-Scott-Rodino, a law requiring review of large mergers, and customary conditions, but there is no financing condition. There is no decision to match a deal based on an option study. The current convex entry is rejected due to small remaining deal upside and no dated trigger or validated put edge. The acquisition is expected to bring benefits in three orders: first, expanding the buyer's platform, second, cross-selling data and transport, and third, reducing dealer competition and costs, although these assumptions do not include paying cash. https://investors.acvauto.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/113/copart-to-acquire-acv-expanding-position-across-the-vehicle-remarketing-ecosystem ; /data/stock-bars

A September 12 run processed 13,181 unique securities. The initial 44 batches resulted in 17 successful requests, 26 failed requests, and 1 error, yielding 4,579 bars. A repair effort using 27 batches with successful requests and including missing symbols with uppercase letters, using 2 workers, added 12,024 bars, with no pagination issues, although 1,157 had no rows and 613 had only alphabetical characters. One local parsing failure was fixed by guarding against empty strings. The ticker symbol NA requires the keep_default_na parameter to be set to False in the future. Applying filters, including a closing price between 1 and 20, a closing price multiplied by volume of at least 1 million, and excluding ETFs, resulted in 1,554 securities. This does not include options or ranking models. The universe of securities includes non-operating securities and current listings, which may introduce survivor bias. It was not established that there was a full market absence. https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

The company LW released its earnings results on July 24, 2026. The results were released in the morning, following the usual convention. The data was retrieved on September 12 at 02UTC, with 926 bars adjusted. The reaction to the earnings release on July 24, 2026, was as follows: the stock price was 48.82 before the release, opened at 48.29, and closed at 49.22, with a return of 0.008193363375665674 and a gap of -0.01085620647275709. This data is part of a sample of eight events from July 2024 to July 2026, excluding October 1, 2024, because the release hour needs to be precisely reconciled. The exclusion is explicit and does not affect consecutive quarters, with a preliminary sensitivity of 9/8 needed before entry. https://investors.lambweston.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lamb-weston-announces-q4-and-full-year-fiscal-2026-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

The company LW released its earnings results on 2026-04-01. The results were released in the morning, following the usual convention. The data was retrieved on September 12 at 02UTC and includes 926 bars after a SIP adjustment. On the day of the release, the stock price opened at 40.84, closed at 37.86, and had a return of -0.08946608946608947, with a gap of -0.0177970177970177 from the previous close of 41.58. This reaction is part of a sample of eight events from July 2024 to July 2026, excluding an event on October 1, 2024, because the release hour needs to be precisely reconciled. The exclusion is explicit and does not affect consecutive quarters, but a preliminary sensitivity analysis of 9 out of 8 events is needed before making an entry, which refers to a decision to buy or sell a stock. https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/9f03ff19-1e8d-4002-ad45-ea16a804db88 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

The company LW released its earnings results on December 19, 2025. This is the same day the results were announced, following the usual morning release and conference call schedule. The data was retrieved on September 12 at 02:00 UTC, with 926 bars adjusted. The reaction to the earnings release was as follows: on December 19, 2025, the stock price was 57.89 before the announcement, opened at 49.62, and closed at 42.88, which is a return of -0.25928485057868367, and a gap of -0.1428571428571429. This data is part of a sample of eight events from July 2024 to July 2026, excluding October 1, 2024, because the release time of the original page and the next day's conference call need to be precisely reconciled. This exclusion is explicit and does not affect consecutive quarters, but a preliminary sensitivity analysis of 9 out of 8 is needed before entry. https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/f4d3c7be-8520-4e3b-ad1c-947ff8e11079 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

The company LW released its earnings results on September 30, 2025. The results were released in the morning, following the usual convention. The data was retrieved on September 12 at 02UTC, with 926 bars adjusted. The reaction to the earnings release was as follows: the stock price was 54 before the release, opened at 57.63, and closed at 56.34, with a return of 0.043333333333333446 and a gap of 0.0672222222222223. This reaction is part of a sample of eight events from July 2024 to July 2026, excluding October 1, 2024, because the release hour needs to be precisely reconciled. The exclusion is explicit and does not affect consecutive quarters, with a preliminary sensitivity analysis needed before entry on 9/8. https://investors.lambweston.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lamb-weston-reports-first-quarter-fiscal-2026-results-reaffirms ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

The company LW released its earnings results on July 23, 2025. The results were released in the morning, following the usual convention. The reaction to the earnings release was analyzed based on the stock's price movement. On July 23, 2025, the stock's price before the release was $47.39, it opened at $54.03, and closed at $55.11, resulting in a return of 0.1629 and a gap of 0.1401. This analysis is part of a larger sample of eight events from July 2024 to July 2026, excluding the event on October 1, 2024, due to issues with reconciling the release hour. The exclusion is explicit and does not affect the analysis of consecutive quarters, which requires preliminary sensitivity analysis before entry. https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/56b9f201-656c-48b9-b5c5-7ad0415559a3 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

The company LW released its earnings results on April 3, 2025. The results were released in the morning, following the usual convention. The data was retrieved on September 12 at 02UTC, with 926 bars adjusted. The reaction to the earnings release on April 3, 2025, was as follows: the stock price was 51.81 before the release, opened at 57.35, closed at 57, and had a return of 0.10017371163867983, with a gap of 0.1069291642540049. This reaction is part of a sample of eight events from July 2024 to July 2026, excluding October 1, 2024, because the release hour needs to be precisely reconciled. The exclusion is explicit and does not affect consecutive quarters, with a preliminary sensitivity analysis of 9/8 needed before entry. https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/a203a75d-5b5c-4214-9dfd-eef4ab0744ba ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

The company LW released its earnings results on December 19, 2024, following the usual morning release and call schedule. The results were retrieved on September 12 at 02 UTC, with 926 bars of data adjusted. On the day of the release, the stock price opened at 62.74, closed at 59.44, with a return of -0.2010752688172044 and a gap of -0.1567204301075269 from the previous close of 74.4. This reaction is part of a sample of eight events from July 2024 to July 2026, excluding October 1, 2024, due to issues with reconciling the release hour. The exclusion is explicit and does not affect consecutive quarters, with preliminary sensitivity analysis needed before entry, based on 9 out of 8 sensitivity. https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/6d039ad7-9532-40e7-8a35-f2bdcb247771 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

The company LW released its earnings results on July 24, 2024. The results were released in the morning, following the usual convention. The data was retrieved on September 12 at 02 UTC, with 926 bars adjusted. On the day of the release, the stock price opened at 55.63, closed at 53.09, with a return of -0.28237361449040277 and a gap of -0.2480400108137335, starting from a previous close of 73.98. The reaction is based on an eight-event sample from July 2024 to July 2026, excluding October 1, 2024, because the release hour needs to be precisely reconciled. This exclusion is explicit and does not claim consecutive quarters, with a preliminary sensitivity of 9/8 needed before entry. https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/3a81b9fe-0ad9-47cd-889f-f45c183f75e8 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

On July 15, 2026, at 7:30 AM Eastern Time, ConAgra Brands, or CAG for short, which is a stock ticker symbol, released its earnings report. The actual results came from the company itself, which may have presented the information in a positive light. The market data was retrieved on September 12, 2026, at 2:00 UTC, and it included 926 market bars, or units of market data, from 2023 to September 11, 2026. On the day of the earnings report, the stock price was as follows: it closed at $13.93, opened at $13.54, and the previous day's close was $13.99. The return, or change in stock price, from the previous day's close to the same-day close was -0.0043, and the gap, or difference, from the previous day's close to the open was -0.0322. The daily market bars, or units of market data, cannot be used to determine the profit and loss of executable options, which are a type of financial contract. The sample of data includes all 9 quarters from July 2024 to July 2026. https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-prn-122958 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

On April 1, 2026, at 7:30 AM Eastern Time, the issuer released its earnings results. The actual results came from the company's own business account, which may be biased in a positive way. The market data is separate. This information was retrieved on September 12, 2026, at 2:00 UTC, with all adjustments made. The data includes 926 market bars from 2023 to September 11, 2026. On April 1, 2026, the stock price was as follows: the previous day's close was $15.16, the opening price was $15.31, and the closing price was $14.97, which is a return of -0.0125, or a loss of 1.25%. The gap between the previous day's close and the opening price was $0.0099, or a gain of 0.99%. The return is calculated from the previous day's close to the same-day close, and the gap is calculated from the previous day's close to the opening price. The daily market data cannot identify the profit or loss from executable options. The sample includes all 9 quarters from July 2024 to July 2026. https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-third-quarter-results-prn-122950 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

On December 19, 2025, at 7:30 AM Eastern Time, ConAgra Brands, or CAG for short, which is a stock ticker symbol, released its earnings report. The actual results came from the company itself, which may have presented the information in a positive light. The market data is separate from the earnings report. The data was retrieved on September 12, 2023, at 02:00 UTC, with all SIP adjustments, and includes 926 market bars from 2023 to September 11. On the day of the report, the stock price was as follows: it was 16.83 dollars before the market opened, it opened at 16.84 dollars, and it closed at 16.41 dollars, which is a return of -0.024955436720142443, or a negative 2.5 percent. The gap, which is the difference between the previous close and the opening price, was 0.0005941770647654998 dollars. The return is calculated from the previous day's close to the same day's close, and the gap is from the previous close to the open. The daily market bars, which are a way to show market data, cannot identify the profit and loss of executable options. The sample includes all nine quarters from July 2024 to July 2026. https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-second-quarter-results-prn-122942 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars