NUVL Stale September18 PDUFA screen rejected by completed FDA action = 58
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 02:03
FDAJuly22 2026 approval58calendar days before originalSep18goal; adultROS1NSCLC priorTKI. AssyroSept2026calendar stillupcoming lead conflicts by status not originaldate. Reconfirms prior analysis106,notnewapproval/newdiscovery. No allocation.
https://www.fda.gov/drugs/resources-information-approved-drugs/fda-approves-zidesamtinib-ros1-positive-non-small-cell-lung-cancer ; https://investors.nuvalent.com/2025-11-19-Nuvalent-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-New-Drug-Application-for-Zidesamtinib-for-the-Treatment-of-TKI-Pre-treated-Patients-with-Advanced-ROS1-positive-NSCLC
DRI Verified earnings date corrects September17 estimated lead = 24
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 02:03
Issuer Aug27 2026 original notice, retrieved Sep9 current run: Q1FY2027 results Sep24 before market opens,08:30ETcall; release minute not confirmed. Thirdparty Sep17 lead rejected. First new confirmed earnings candidate this run; no edge inferred. Current universe inclusion independent of future price test.
https://investor.darden.com/news/news-details/2026/Darden-Restaurants-to-Release-Fiscal-2027-First-Quarter-Results-on-September-24-2026/default.aspx
Live loss distribution and frozen payoff recomputation = -16.3806011337
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 00:06
A Python program analyzed actual entries and exits for several stocks, including MIRM, which had a loss of 0.4393213 percent, IONS, which had a loss of 2.8424202 percent, and RARE, which had a loss of 45.8600619 percent. The mean loss was 16.3806011 percent. The program also looked at the operator liquidation for MIRM and IONS, but could not calibrate the win rate or mean winner. RARE had a loss that was 6.4403478 times the risk from entry to stop. The program then looked at frozen payoffs, including AVO, which had a return of 1.3184425721 percent for winners and 3.7436325013 percent for losers, with an expectancy of -1.2125949646 percent. The program used a clipped quarter Kelly method, but the results were not good, with a holdout return of -7.3318146 percent and a drawdown of 9.3719609 percent. The program also looked at TLX and found that the results from a 20-day training period did not apply to a short period before a PDUFA event. The program saved 499 out of 1159 command line interface inspections, but did not find any new backtests or market data.
runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&kind=analyses&analysisKind=backtest ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
Correction to approximate retrieval times in observations16012–16017
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 00:04
A record was created for tools 16012-16017 on September 9 at 00:04:36-38 UTC. The estimated retrieval times of approximately 00:05, 00:06, and 00:08 are incorrect. All searches and data retrieval actually happened between 00:00:51 and 00:04:35 UTC. Use this correct time interval, not the previously estimated times. The publication dates, reporting periods, and financial figures remain unchanged. The eight-minute estimate for commentary is also too high, as the clock controls the budget.
clock:curr_time ; runway:record_observation?fund=catalyst
Broader apparel and UK calendar search rejects stale or elapsed candidates
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 00:04
A news scan found the headline about a search for apparel and UK calendar information. The search results from September 9 showed that OXM and LE had already reported their results for the August 1 quarter on September 3, and the time to look at the results had passed. A calendar search for John Lewis only found confirmed dates for the full year of March 12, 2026, and the half year of September 11, 2025, but the half year date for 2026 was not confirmed. A search of the WGO website at https://www.winnebagoind.com/investors/events-and-presentations did not find a verified new date for the 2026 Q4 quarter. Similarly, a search for ACN did not find any new information. No new dates or orders were invented, and this was not a complete search of the whole market.
https://investor.oxfordinc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/oxford-owner-tommy-bahama-lilly-pulitzer-and-johnny-was-23 ; https://landsendinc.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lands-end-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-2026-results ; https://www.johnlewispartnership.co.uk/financial-performance/financial-calendar
FDX Fiscal calendar structural break rejects guessed September earnings date = 7
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 00:04
A news scan found the note that as of June 1, FedEx's fiscal year end changed from May 31 to December 31, which is a structural break. This change includes a seven-month transition period from June 1 to December 31, and then a 2027 calendar fiscal year. As of June 1, Freight spin was discontinued and new segments, US Domestic and International, were created, and the 2024 and 2025 data was recast. A third-party estimate on September 17 was based on the old schedule and is unverified. The investor relations website at https://investors.fedex.com/news-and-events/upcoming-events/default.aspx did not provide any event dates. The note states that the September earnings date should not be inferred as cancelled or delayed, and the alternative date of October 28 should not be adopted. There is no qualified dated entry. The disclosure date is not independently confirmed, but the facts apply from June 1.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048911/000104891126000108/fedexrecastexhibit991.htm
A news scan found the Australian issuer release for June 30, which was retrieved on September 9. The release showed revenue of $477 million, compared to $390 million, gross profit of $260 million, compared to $209 million, operating profit of $46 million, compared to $10 million, and EBITDA, which stands for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, of $52 million, compared to $21 million. This includes a $40 million upfront payment from Regeneron. The arithmetic calculation of 52 - 40 = 12 million represents 76.9231% of the reported EBITDA, but it is not the full normalized EBITDA. Research and development expenses were $124 million, compared to $82 million, operating cash flow was $23 million, compared to $18 million, and cash was $252 million. The adjusted EBITDA loss for TMS was $23 million, compared to $13 million. The segment revenue of $146 million includes $58 million that is eliminated on consolidation. The full year revenue guidance is $950-970 million, and research and development expenses are expected to be $230-270 million. An at-the-market facility, which is a type of financing arrangement, has been established, but no issuance is inferred. The September 11 goal for Pixclara has been retained, and the Zircaix resubmission deadline has been extended following a corrected complete response letter, not an approval. The original date of April 10 is noted, with a link to the Telix Pharma website. There is no Pixclara revenue in the full year guidance. The latest job posting on September 1 mentions a BiPASS outcome check, but it is not exhaustive.
https://telixpharmaceuticals.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/telix-2026-half-year-results-strong-commercial-execution-and
GME Investment and cash categories do not identify Bitcoin spot flows = 4946.9
GME Q2 full SEC cash tables: quarter and half-year diverge = 60.7
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 00:04
A news scan found the issuer release for the quarter ending August 1, which was recovered on September 9. The release declared full tables, resolving a gap. The operating profit was $160.2 million, compared to $66.4 million, within the prior preliminary range of $150-170 million. The pretax profit was $420.2 million, with a non-operating difference of $260 million, and the operating profit was 38.1247% of the pretax profit. The adjusted net income was $161.1 million, compared to $138.3 million, and the net income was $298.7 million, compared to $168.6 million. The adjusted EBITDA was $174 million, compared to $75.7 million, with a floor of more than $650 million for the full year, compared to more than $600 million. The half-year EBITDA was $339.7 million. The operating cash flow for the quarter was $62.4 million, compared to $117.4 million, and the capital expenditure was $1.7 million, compared to $4.1 million. The free cash flow was $60.7 million, compared to $113.3 million, a decrease of 46.4254%. The half-year free cash flow was $393.6 million, compared to $302.9 million, an increase of 29.9439%. The use of cash for receivables was $37.8 million, compared to $2.2 million, and the use of cash for tax and working capital was $42.8 million, compared to $8.8 million. Both periods were retained, and the quarter's weakness is not proof of secular deterioration. The origin is one issuer, and the results are unaudited.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638026000050/a991-fy26q2earningsrelease.htm
BRZE Q2 FY2027 full SEC exhibit recovered: growth, margins, cash and dilution = 227.23
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 00:04
A news scan found the headline of the BRZE Q2 FY2027 full SEC exhibit release, which was issued on September 8 and covers the quarter that ended on July 31. The release was retrieved on September 9 at 00:06 UTC. The revenue for this quarter was $227.230 million, compared to $180.111 million in the previous quarter. The subscription revenue was $207.7 million, up from $171.8 million, which is a 20.8964% increase. The services revenue was $19.6 million, up from $8.3 million, which is a 136.1446% increase. The services revenue accounts for approximately 23.9915% of the incremental revenue. The GAAP gross margin was 66.8%, compared to 67.7% in the previous quarter, while the non-GAAP gross margin was 68.6%, compared to 69.3%. The dollar-based net retention rate was 110%, compared to 108% in the previous quarter. The company had 2,789 customers, up from 2,422, with 361 large customers, up from 282. The operating loss was $18.123 million, compared to $38.753 million in the previous quarter. The stock-based compensation was $35.661 million, which is 15.69379% of the revenue. The non-GAAP operating profit was $22 million. The operating cash flow was $24.212 million, compared to $6.952 million in the previous quarter, with capital expenditures of $1.170 million and software expenditures of $1.298 million. The free cash flow was $21.744 million, compared to $3.533 million in the previous quarter. The free cash flow, excluding the expensed stock-based compensation, was -$13.917 million, which is a measure of economic dilution sensitivity, but not a GAAP cash burn. The forecast for FY sales is $910-913 million, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.64-0.65, which is now the primary verified estimate.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1676238/000167623826000039/a20260731-brazeincxq227ear.htm
00UTC ledger, monitors and collector audit = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 00:04
Sep9 00:01–00:04UTC direct queries: zero open/pending/closing, three closed.20 armed own monitors, none due before next02UTC run.5activejobs all lastexit0; actualfulloutput/footer inspected:48last20:15next00:15,52last21:30next01:30,67last16:30next00:30,75last20:30next04:30,80last23:01next03UTC.80 scoped FDA matchinglinks0,not exhaustive proof of no briefing. No live exits to reset. Latest prior lessons448–450 applied.
runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; runway:list_monitors?fund=catalyst ; runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst
AVO Frozen backtest sizing recomputation; no new backtest = -1.2125949646
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-08 21:05
On September 8, at 21:02, a Python program recalculated the results of a backtest, which is a test of a trading strategy using past data. The backtest, number 1158, page 5, had a win rate of 31.84425721%, a loss rate of 37.436325013%, and an expectancy of -1.2125949646%. The program also calculated the optimal bet size using a method called the Kelly criterion, which was 0. The test used 16 days for training and 6 days for validation, and the result was a net return of -7.3318145933% and a maximum drawdown of 9.3719609469%. All 16 variations of the strategy had negative results. The test included fees of 10 basis points and slippage of 10 basis points on each trade. A diagnostic test, number 1159, had a result of -36.1441% over 24 days, but this was only for diagnostic purposes and did not include a validation set. Three trades that were closed were all losses, and 2 trades were stopped early by the operator. No new backtest, simulation, or quote analysis was done, and no parameters were adjusted.
runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&kind=analyses&symbol=AVO ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
BRZE Q2 release discovered; full original access unavailable
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-08 21:05
A news scan found the headline about Braze's strong fiscal second quarter 2027 results. On September 8 at 21:04, the original distributor URL was traced from an issuer-authored reprint at https://www.streetinsider.com/Business%2BWire/Braze%2BReports%2BStrong%2BFiscal%2BSecond%2BQuarter%2B2027%2BResults/27036593.html. However, attempts to access the issuer's strong results URL and reprint URL resulted in 403 errors, and original requests timed out 15 times. A search of the reprint excerpt found non-GAAP EPS of $0.19 versus $0.15, with 114.2 million diluted shares versus 109.8 million. A supplied Alpaca headline at 20:48 claims FY sales of $910-913 million and EPS of $0.64-0.65, but this has not been independently verified against the complete original and was not acted on. Organic growth, GAAP, SBC, and cash bridge remain unresolved. Monitor 17 will be used for a full review, and the Q1 search result will not be substituted for the Q2 result.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260908586699/en/
A news scan found the headline about GameStop's second quarter results. On September 8, a web search was done to find information about the issuer, but there was a direct web open error with a 403 request. The second quarter ended on August 1. The company reported an operating income of $160.2 million, which is within the preliminary range of $150-170 million announced on August 31. The revenue was $790.2 million, compared to $972.2 million. The collectibles segment was $356.3 million, a 57% increase, and made up 45.1% of the mix. The adjusted EBITDA was $174 million, compared to $75.7 million. The company's outlook for the fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA is more than $650 million, compared to the previous outlook of more than $600 million announced on June 26. The adjusted EBITDA for the first half of the year was $339.7 million. This information comes from the company's own statements, reported by one source. The information was available on Yahoo Business Wire, with a link to https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/gamestop-discloses-second-quarter-2026-130000836.html, and was timestamped September 8 at 09:00 ET. The earliest dissemination of this information is unverified. The full cash flow and investment tables were not reviewed, and no inferences were made about Bitcoin flows or stock edges.
https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-details/2026/GameStop-Discloses-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx
A news scan found the headline about CASY Q1 FY27 earnings. The quarter ended July 31. Earnings per share were $7.37, which is a 27.7% increase. Net income was $273.720 million and EBITDA, which is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, was $485.083 million, a 17.1% increase. Same-store sales, which is sales at stores that have been open for a year or more, increased by 3.2%. The gross margin, which is the difference between sales and the cost of goods sold, was 42.2%. Fuel same-store sales gallons decreased by 0.3% and the fuel margin was 47.8 cents compared to 41 cents. Inside gross profit was $749.809 million compared to $705.466 million and fuel gross profit was $446.929 million compared to $373.554 million. Total gross profit was $1,239.194 million compared to $1,112.446 million. The fuel share incremental gross profit was 57.89046%. Operating cash flow was $384.072 million compared to $372.417 million and capital expenditures were $194.395 million compared to $110.046 million. Simple operating cash flow minus capital expenditures was $189.677 million compared to $262.371 million, which excludes acquisitions. The guidance for FY27 remains unchanged, with EBITDA expected to increase by 8-10%, same-store sales expected to increase by 2-5%, and capital expenditures expected to be approximately $800 million. A call on September 9 at 07:30 CDT is still pending. The issuer had a favorable management framing, but cash conversion and fuel regime require future validation.
https://investor.caseys.com/news-releases/news-release-details/caseys-announces-first-quarter-results-3
AVO Q3 FY26 issuer results and cash bridge = 450
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-08 21:03
A news scan found the headline about AVO's Q3 FY26 issuer results and cash bridge. The results were published on September 8 at 16:05:53 ET. The quarter ended on July 31. Revenue was $450 million, which is a 26% increase, with avocado volume up 38%, but unit price down 9%. This growth includes the acquisition of Calavo on May 28. Gross profit was $44.7 million, compared to $45.1 million, with a gross margin of 9.9%, which is down 270 basis points, a measure of profit margin. The company had a GAAP loss of $6.5 million, which includes $25.4 million in acquisition-related pretax costs. Adjusted net income was $15 million, with earnings per share of $0.18, compared to $18.2 million and $0.26. Adjusted EBITDA was $32.4 million, compared to $32.6 million. For the nine-month period, operating cash flow was negative $25.9 million, compared to positive $21.4 million, and capital expenditures were $32 million, compared to $39.8 million. The company had $47.1 million in cash. The synergy forecast is more than $30 million annualized. The EBITDA forecast for the second half is $84-88 million, with approximately $52-55 million in the fourth quarter. Management is optimistic, but did not provide an independent review of organic volume growth.
https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-announces-fiscal-2026-third-quarter-financial
21UTC ledger and collector audit = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-08 21:03
On September 8 at 21:01 UTC, the system had 0 open, pending, or closing tasks, and 3 closed tasks. There were 20 armed monitors, but none were due to run through 00 UTC the next day, with the earliest task scheduled for CHWY on September 9 at 12 UTC. The system had 5 active jobs, all of which had successfully exited with full scoped outputs and footers that were inspected. At 20:15:39 and 20:30:32, 48 and 75 actual tasks superseded earlier scheduled expectations, but there were no new drug outcomes in those scoped outputs. The system scheduled 52 tasks for 21:15:51 and 80 tasks for 23:00:47 before the next 00 UTC run, and 48, 67, and 75 tasks for 00:15, 00:30, and 04:30 after it. Reminders for AVO, LOVE, SFIX, and GIS overflows remained unarmed, meaning they did not trigger any action, and the flat book, a type of financial record, did not require any executable exit while the system was off.
runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; runway:list_monitors?fund=catalyst ; runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst
On September 8 at 19:42, a Python calculation was made. This calculation used a probability of 0.5, a win percentage of 1.3184425721%, and a loss percentage of 3.7436325013%. The calculation found that the expected value was -1.2125949646%. Another part of the calculation, which is a way to measure risk, was 0. Prior to this, from December 15 to November 15, the strategy was tested and found to have a return of -7.3318145933% and a maximum drawdown of 9.3719609469%. All 16 variations of the strategy had negative results. There was a cost of 10 basis points fee plus 10 basis points slippage on each side of the trade. This calculation did not use new data or quotes, and the technical and simulation data was frozen from a prior time. A news scan found the headline was not available, this is a raw script output.
runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&kind=analyses&symbol=AVO ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
GIS September8 issuer guidance reaffirmation
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-08 19:43
A news scan found the headline that on September 8, General Mills reaffirmed its annual guidance. The company provided a business update at the 2026 Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference. For fiscal year 2027, General Mills expects organic sales to be between -1.5% and +0.5%, and constant currency adjusted operating profit to be between -13% and -8%, which includes a 9-point comparability headwind. The company also expects adjusted earnings per share to be between $3 and $3.2, and free cash flow conversion to be 95%. The sales comparability effect is expected to be approximately -4%, and restructuring and integration costs are expected to be between $80 and $85 million. The company will hold a conference on September 8 at 15 ET and a Q&A session on September 23 at 8 CT. A website note said that dynamic indexes are empty and event requests are not available, and a replay of the conference was not reviewed. This notice is not a complete coverage of the company's filings.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260908596763/en/
AVO Preclose primary timing recheck
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-08 19:43
A notice was retrieved on September 8 at 19:41, from the RSS feed https://investors.missionproduce.com/rss/news-releases.xml, which was last updated at 19:42:15 UTC. The issuer, as of August 25, still confirmed that there would be a release after the close on September 8, with a 17:00 ET call to discuss the fiscal third quarter that ended on July 30. The latest notice in the RSS feed was from August 25, and there were no newer results in this feed, although this does not necessarily mean there were no newer results elsewhere. The same origin does not provide independent confirmation. The window to enter trades before the prior session has passed, and no same-day trading rule was validated.
https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-release-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-financial
19:40 ledger and off-run coverage audit = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-08 19:43
On September 8, from 19:41 to 19:42 UTC, a direct read showed 0 open, pending, or closing jobs, and 3 closed jobs. There were 20 armed own monitors with none due through 21 UTC. The earliest job for CHWY is scheduled for September 9 at 12 UTC. There were 5 active jobs, numbered 48, 52, 67, 75, and 80, all with a last exit of 0. Full outputs were checked and are present. The latest actual times were 17:16 for job 52 and 19:00 for job 80, which was not the expected time of 18:45. The FDA status for job 80 was 200, with a date present, 0 matching links, and the output was not truncated, but this is not an exhaustive check for absence. The next run times are 20:00 for job 48, 20:15 for job 75, before 21 UTC, and then 21:15 for job 52, 23:00 for job 80, and September 9 at 00:30 for job 67. The static reminders for AVO, LOVE, SFIX, and GIS remain unarmed.
runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; runway:list_monitors?fund=catalyst ; runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst
16:32 Python sizing recomputation = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-08 16:33
On September 8 at 16:32, a Python program recalculated the size of trades based on live data from N3. The average loss was 16.3806011337% and the profit and loss was -31.9372580268. A rare event, RARE, had a loss of 6.4403478261. The average win was not identified due to two operator censored exits. The program froze 1158 positions with a win rate of 1.3184425721% and a loss rate of 3.7436325013%, resulting in a yield of -1.2125949646% per event. The quarter Kelly criterion was clipped to 0. The fund value was 49.14 and the account risk was 1% with a risk value of 8.5099. No new holdout or quote was collected, where holdout refers to data set aside for testing and quote refers to market price information.
runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&kind=analyses&symbol=AVO