Notes

3935 observations, newest first

HAIN Sep6 HAIN regimes measured row 12

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","part":"holdout","indicator":"preannounced","value":true,"sample":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN regimes measured row 11 = -54.89694584073622

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","part":"holdout","indicator":"preannounced","value":false,"sample":6,"return_pct":-54.89694584073622,"trade_end_dd_pct":54.89694584073622,"win_pct":16.666666666666664,"mean_pct":-10.976670632339482,"avg_win_pct":19.973799926024416,"avg_loss_pct":17.166764744012262,"quarter_kelly":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN regimes measured row 10 = -49.51638228645171

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","part":"holdout","indicator":"spytrend","value":true,"sample":5,"return_pct":-49.51638228645171,"trade_end_dd_pct":51.03103609698405,"win_pct":20,"mean_pct":-11.04039700247952,"avg_win_pct":19.973799926024416,"avg_loss_pct":18.793946234605503,"quarter_kelly":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN regimes measured row 9 = -10.6580387816393

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","part":"holdout","indicator":"spytrend","value":false,"sample":1,"return_pct":-10.6580387816393,"trade_end_dd_pct":10.6580387816393,"win_pct":0,"mean_pct":-10.6580387816393,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":10.6580387816393,"quarter_kelly":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN regimes measured row 8 = -16.891481454974954

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","part":"holdout","indicator":"trend","value":true,"sample":3,"return_pct":-16.891481454974954,"trade_end_dd_pct":30.727776734362354,"win_pct":33.33333333333333,"mean_pct":-3.9407579562342234,"avg_win_pct":19.973799926024416,"avg_loss_pct":15.898036897363543,"quarter_kelly":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN regimes measured row 7 = -45.729926427663784

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","part":"holdout","indicator":"trend","value":false,"sample":3,"return_pct":-45.729926427663784,"trade_end_dd_pct":45.729926427663784,"win_pct":0,"mean_pct":-18.01258330844474,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":18.01258330844474,"quarter_kelly":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN regimes measured row 6 = 6.557011528595824

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","part":"train","indicator":"preannounced","value":true,"sample":1,"return_pct":6.557011528595824,"trade_end_dd_pct":0,"win_pct":100,"mean_pct":6.557011528595824,"avg_win_pct":6.557011528595824,"avg_loss_pct":0,"quarter_kelly":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN regimes measured row 5 = 30.808632505153554

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","part":"train","indicator":"preannounced","value":false,"sample":12,"return_pct":30.808632505153554,"trade_end_dd_pct":14.164980726201115,"win_pct":58.333333333333336,"mean_pct":2.4034491330031713,"avg_win_pct":6.519730212639896,"avg_loss_pct":3.359344378488242,"quarter_kelly":0.0921606053707395} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN regimes measured row 4 = 15.841528427747043

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","part":"train","indicator":"spytrend","value":true,"sample":9,"return_pct":15.841528427747043,"trade_end_dd_pct":12.188056545577453,"win_pct":55.55555555555556,"mean_pct":1.7881650301024572,"avg_win_pct":6.127778267355124,"avg_loss_pct":3.6363515164633764,"quarter_kelly":0.07295323656000474} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN regimes measured row 3 = 20.324525678071502

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","part":"train","indicator":"spytrend","value":false,"sample":4,"return_pct":20.324525678071502,"trade_end_dd_pct":2.2513158265877076,"win_pct":75,"mean_pct":4.826228963427942,"avg_win_pct":7.185410560099825,"avg_loss_pct":2.2513158265877076,"quarter_kelly":0.1679176479569489} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN regimes measured row 2 = 1.854334464232199

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","part":"train","indicator":"trend","value":true,"sample":1,"return_pct":1.854334464232199,"trade_end_dd_pct":0,"win_pct":100,"mean_pct":1.854334464232199,"avg_win_pct":1.854334464232199,"avg_loss_pct":0,"quarter_kelly":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN regimes measured row 1 = 36.84814726059851

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","part":"train","indicator":"trend","value":false,"sample":12,"return_pct":36.84814726059851,"trade_end_dd_pct":15.727671556342804,"win_pct":58.333333333333336,"mean_pct":2.795338888366807,"avg_win_pct":7.191541221834699,"avg_loss_pct":3.359344378488242,"quarter_kelly":0.09717454166429929} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN measured holdout_mean_excess_xlp_pct

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"barsSep2020–Sep42026;holdout2025+","data":-11.193421710153622} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN measured holdout_mean_excess_spy_pct

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"barsSep2020–Sep42026;holdout2025+","data":-12.390496866013269} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN measured bootstrap_mean_ci_pct

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"barsSep2020–Sep42026;holdout2025+","data":[-23.217082997392456,2.91121453361781]} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN backtests measured row 12 = 23.041763886079615

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","sample":1,"return_pct":23.041763886079615,"trade_end_dd_pct":0,"win_pct":100,"mean_pct":23.041763886079615,"avg_win_pct":23.041763886079615,"avg_loss_pct":0,"quarter_kelly":0,"lookback":15,"part":"holdout","slippage":0.0025,"vbt_return_pct":23.04176388607963,"drawdown_pct":5.804749340369386} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN backtests measured row 11 = 23.411444623045163

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","sample":1,"return_pct":23.411444623045163,"trade_end_dd_pct":0,"win_pct":100,"mean_pct":23.411444623045163,"avg_win_pct":23.411444623045163,"avg_loss_pct":0,"quarter_kelly":0,"lookback":15,"part":"holdout","slippage":0.001,"vbt_return_pct":23.411444623045156,"drawdown_pct":5.804749340369398} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN backtests measured row 10

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","sample":0,"lookback":15,"part":"train","slippage":0.0025,"vbt_return_pct":0,"drawdown_pct":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN backtests measured row 9

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","sample":0,"lookback":15,"part":"train","slippage":0.001,"vbt_return_pct":0,"drawdown_pct":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN backtests measured row 8 = -21.62236535973905

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","sample":6,"return_pct":-21.62236535973905,"trade_end_dd_pct":26.101849260477582,"win_pct":16.666666666666664,"mean_pct":-3.3821163997307315,"avg_win_pct":20.2845254796689,"avg_loss_pct":8.115444775610658,"quarter_kelly":0,"lookback":5,"part":"holdout","slippage":0.0025,"vbt_return_pct":-21.622365359739103,"drawdown_pct":28.788917058184538} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN backtests measured row 7 = -20.198789563890895

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","sample":6,"return_pct":-20.198789563890895,"trade_end_dd_pct":25.43376184878219,"win_pct":16.666666666666664,"mean_pct":-3.091826588488529,"avg_win_pct":20.64592205446154,"avg_loss_pct":7.8393763170785435,"quarter_kelly":0,"lookback":5,"part":"holdout","slippage":0.001,"vbt_return_pct":-20.198789563890955,"drawdown_pct":28.253012695908808} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN backtests measured row 6 = 23.058592015337865

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","sample":16,"return_pct":23.058592015337865,"trade_end_dd_pct":3.00132536801484,"win_pct":62.5,"mean_pct":1.3365257291832884,"avg_win_pct":2.7203472628695713,"avg_loss_pct":0.9698434936271835,"quarter_kelly":0.12282675703077772,"lookback":5,"part":"train","slippage":0.0025,"vbt_return_pct":23.058592015337776,"drawdown_pct":12.448035817587522} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN backtests measured row 5 = 29.109483769196487

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","sample":16,"return_pct":29.109483769196487,"trade_end_dd_pct":1.9650470890454352,"win_pct":62.5,"mean_pct":1.6409927680968077,"avg_win_pct":3.0289720133457765,"avg_loss_pct":0.6723059739848065,"quarter_kelly":0.13544139404941063,"lookback":5,"part":"train","slippage":0.001,"vbt_return_pct":29.109483769196366,"drawdown_pct":12.184984690722233} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN backtests measured row 4 = -55.701540355895375

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","sample":6,"return_pct":-55.701540355895375,"trade_end_dd_pct":55.701540355895375,"win_pct":16.666666666666664,"mean_pct":-11.243341281145875,"avg_win_pct":19.614416702623384,"avg_loss_pct":17.414892877899728,"quarter_kelly":0,"lookback":10,"part":"holdout","slippage":0.0025,"vbt_return_pct":-55.701540355895396,"drawdown_pct":57.31231089895354} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all

HAIN Sep6 HAIN backtests measured row 3 = -54.89694584073622

Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 06:12

{"collected":"2026-09-06","period":"train2021–2024/holdout2025–May2026;bars throughSep4","method":"research/analyze.py seed60606,fee5bp and statedslippage;simulation conditional not forecast","sample":6,"return_pct":-54.89694584073622,"trade_end_dd_pct":54.89694584073622,"win_pct":16.666666666666664,"mean_pct":-10.976670632339482,"avg_win_pct":19.973799926024416,"avg_loss_pct":17.166764744012262,"quarter_kelly":0,"lookback":10,"part":"holdout","slippage":0.001,"vbt_return_pct":-54.896945840736244,"drawdown_pct":56.61700932814229} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all