Runway

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1524 backtests, newest first
QSEC90808 Fund
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 fund is a managed base train with a fixed strategy. It uses the top 1 positive sector momentum, which is based on the performance of 9 ETFs, and is trained on data from 2017 to 2020, with a holdout period from 2021 to 2025, and recent data from 2026 up to September 4. The fund has a managed stop loss of 1 ATR and a target of 1.5 ATR, with half of the position sized at 1 ATR and the remaining half at the break even point. The fund also uses a daily stop and a first ambiguous path, with no overlap and a next open lagged signal. There are fees of 5 basis points and slippage of 5 basis points per fill. The event ledger is independently reconciled and has a maximum USD error of 3.637978807091713e-12. Fees are included on every partial fill. The target, stop, same bar break even, gap target, and break even values are 9, 23, 7, 7, and 2 respectively. The data used is from 2016, with a floor of 2684 bars per symbol, and includes all adjusted total return proxy, cash dividends, exact fees, 15 minute quotes, whole share, and PDT unvalidated. The out of sample data is chronological but not pristine due to previous market window reuse. The parent cannot authorize an order without required exits. This rule is not active on September 8 for monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were frozen on 11/11 and 11/14, with a strategy date of 11/21. A news scan found the headline is not available, this is a raw script output.
return8.89
drawdown17.55
win rate52.08
sample48
average win1.74
average loss1.47
mean trade0.2
quarter Kelly0.03
partial exits23
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 fund uses a fixed strategy, focusing on the top 1 positive sector momentum, with 9 ETFs. The strategy was trained on data from 2017 to 2020, held out from 2021 to 2025, and recently applied from 2026 through September 4. It manages risk with a 1 ATR stop and a 1.5 ATR target, with half of the position plus 1 ATR, then a break-even point. The strategy uses daily stops for ambiguous paths and does not allow overlapping signals. There are no fees or slippage in this diagnostic test. An independent event ledger confirms the results, with a maximum error of 1.8189894035458565e-12 USD. Fees are included for every partial trade. The strategy parameters are: stop at 4, same bar break-even at 1, gap stop at 1, target at 1, gap target at 1, and boundary at 1. The data used is from 2016, with 2684 bars per symbol, and includes adjusted total return, cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, and whole-share trades, but is not validated. The out-of-sample test is chronological, not pristine, due to previous market window reuse. The parent strategy cannot authorize an order without required exits. This rule was not active for the September 8 monthly entry. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with notes frozen on 11/11 and 11/14, and strategy updated on 11/21.
return-1.68
drawdown8.16
win rate44.44
sample9
average win2.48
average loss2.26
mean trade-0.15
quarter Kelly0
partial exits3
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808 Managed
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 primary managed fund has a zero holdout. It uses a fixed strategy, called L126/H20, which looks at the top 1 positive sector momentum every month, and invests in nine ETFs. The fund was trained using data from 2017 to 2020, and its performance is being tested using data from 2021 to 2025, with recent data going up to September 4, 2026. The fund uses a stop-loss, which is a strategy to limit losses, set at 1 ATR, and a target, which is a desired profit level, set at 1.5 ATR. If the fund's performance is not good, it will switch to a different strategy, called BE. The fund also uses a daily stop, which is a strategy to limit losses, and a signal, which is a trigger to buy or sell, that is based on the previous day's data. The fund assumes there are no fees or slippage, which is the difference between the expected and actual price of a trade. The fund's performance is tracked using a ledger, which is a record of all trades, and is reconciled, or checked, independently. The maximum error in the fund's tracking is 3.637978807091713e-12 USD. The fund includes fees on every partial trade. The fund's strategy is defined by the following parameters: stop at 27, target at 13, same bar BE at 7, gap target at 5, gap stop at 4, and BE at 3. The fund uses data from 2016, with 2684 bars per symbol, and includes cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, and whole-share trades, but this data is not validated. The fund's out-of-sample, or OOS, performance is chronological, but not pristine, due to the reuse of previous market windows. The parent fund cannot authorize an order without required exits. This rule is not active on September 8 for the monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were frozen on November 11, 2021, with strategy notes from November 21.
return-10.23
drawdown28.34
win rate47.46
sample59
average win1.96
average loss2.07
mean trade-0.16
quarter Kelly0
partial exits28
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 primary managed zero train uses a fixed strategy with a monthly top 1 positive sector momentum, focusing on nine exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. The training period for this strategy was from 2017 to 2020, with a holdout period from 2021 to 2025, and recent data up to September 4, 2026. The strategy is managed with a 1 ATR stop and a 1.5 ATR target, with half of the position plus 1 ATR, then a break-even, or BE, point, and a daily stop at the first ambiguous path, with no overlap and the next open lagged signal. There are zero fees and slippage in this diagnostic. A signed event ledger independently reconciles the vectorbt with a maximum USD error of 0. Fees are included on every partial position. The strategy parameters are as follows: target is 9, stop is 23, same bar BE is 7, gap target is 7, and BE is 2. The data used starts from 2016, with 2684 bars per symbol, and includes all adjusted total return proxy, cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, whole-share, and PDT, although it is unvalidated. The out-of-sample, or OOS, data is chronological but not pristine due to the reuse of previous market windows. The parent cannot authorize an order without the required exits. This rule was not active on September 8 for the monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with frozen notes on 11/11 and 11/14, and strategy on 11/21.
return19.86
drawdown12.45
win rate52.08
sample48
average win1.94
average loss1.28
mean trade0.4
quarter Kelly0.05
partial exits23
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808 Stress
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
A news scan found the text: Fixed L126/H20 monthly top1positive sector momentum, nineETFs; train2017-20/holdout2021-25/recent2026throughSep4. This means that a computer program analyzed data from 2017 to 2020, used it to make predictions from 2021 to 2025, and then looked at what happened recently, up to September 4, 2026. The program only sells after 20 trading sessions, and it waits for the next day to buy again after selling. It also accounts for 5 basis point fees and 20 basis point lippage per fill, which are types of trading costs. A basis point is a unit of measurement, where 1% is equal to 100 basis points. The program's ledger, which is a record of all trades, was checked separately and found to have a very small error of 1.8189894035458565e-12 USD. The program includes fees for every partial trade. The settings for this program are time 7 and boundary 1. The data used goes back to 2016, with 2684 bars or pieces of data per symbol, and includes total return, which is the change in value of an investment, as well as cash dividends, exact fees, and 15-minute quotes. The data is not completely clean because it was used before in a different market window. The parent program cannot place an order without first selling what it already owns. This rule was not active on September 8 for the monthly entry. The source of this information is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were last updated on November 11, 2021, with frozen notes from October 11 and October 14.
return-13.16
drawdown21.94
win rate37.5
sample8
average win3.22
average loss4.53
mean trade-1.62
quarter Kelly0
partial exits0
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808 Stress
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 primary parent stress holdout uses a fixed strategy with the top 1 positive sector momentum, which is based on 9 ETFs. The strategy was trained on data from 2017 to 2020, and the holdout period is from 2021 to 2025, with recent data going up to September 4, 2026. The parent time exit is only after 20 sessions, with no overlap, and the next open is lagged signal, meaning the signal to buy or sell is delayed until the next opening. There are fees of 5 basis points and 20 basis points of slippage per fill, which is the difference between the expected price and the actual price of a trade. The signed event ledger, which is a record of all trades, independently reconciles with vectorbt, a trading software, and has a maximum error of 1.8189894035458565e-12 USD. Fees are included on every partial trade. The time is 52, which refers to the number of weeks or sessions. The data used is from 2016, with 2684 bars or data points per symbol, and includes all adjusted total return proxy, which is a measure of an investment's return, cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, and whole-share trades, but is not validated under the Pattern Day Trader rule. The out-of-sample, or OOS, data is chronological but not pristine due to previous market window reuse. The parent strategy cannot authorize an order without the required exits. This rule is not active on September 8 for the monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were frozen on November 11, 2021, with a strategy date of November 21. The notes were also previously frozen on November 11 and November 14.
return24.3
drawdown31.1
win rate59.62
sample52
average win4.54
average loss5.21
mean trade0.6
quarter Kelly0.03
partial exits0
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 strategy uses a fixed approach to identify the top-performing sector, known as momentum, which is a measure of the speed of price changes. It considers the top 1 positive sector out of 9 ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, which are a type of investment fund. The strategy was trained using data from 2017 to 2020, tested on data from 2021 to 2025, and recently updated with data from 2026 up to September 4. The parent strategy will only exit a trade after 20 sessions, and it does not allow overlapping trades, waiting for the next open to send a signal. The strategy also accounts for 5 basis point fees and 20 basis point lippage, or the difference between the expected and actual price of a trade, per fill. A signed event ledger, which is a record of all trades, independently reconciles the strategy's performance, with a maximum error of 1.8189894035458565e-12 in USD. Fees are included for every partial trade. The strategy has been running for 41 time periods. The data used starts from 2016, with 2684 bars, or periods, per symbol, and includes all adjusted total returns, cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, and whole-share trades, but has not been validated. The out-of-sample, or OOS, data is chronological but not pristine due to previous market window reuse. The parent strategy cannot authorize an order without the required exits. This rule is not active for the monthly entry on September 8. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were frozen on 11/11 and 11/14, with the strategy updated on 11/21.
return48.23
drawdown20.05
win rate53.66
sample41
average win4.45
average loss2.8
mean trade1.09
quarter Kelly0.06
partial exits0
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808 Update
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
A news scan found the text: Fixed L126/H20 monthly top1positive sector momentum, nineETFs; train2017-20/holdout2021-25/recent2026throughSep4. This means the system uses a specific method, called momentum, to pick the best performing sector, and it uses nine exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, for this. The system was trained using data from 2017 to 2020, tested on data from 2021 to 2025, and recently used data up to September 4, 2026. The parent system will exit a position after only 20 sessions, and it does not overlap with the next signal, which is given after the market opens. The system also accounts for 5 basis points in fees and 5 basis points in slippage per fill, which are small costs associated with buying and selling. A basis point is a unit of measurement, equal to 0.01%. The system's event ledger, which is a record of all events, is independently reconciled, meaning it is checked separately, and it uses a tool called vectorbt, which has a very small error of 1.8189894035458565e-12 USD. Fees are included for every partial fill, which is when an order is partially executed. The system has a time boundary of 7 and a boundary of 1. The data used goes back to 2016, with 2684 bars per symbol, and it includes all adjusted total returns, cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, and whole shares, but it has not been validated for Pattern Day Trader, or PDT, rules. The out-of-sample, or OOS, data is in chronological order, but it is not pristine because the system reuses previous market windows. The parent system cannot authorize an order without the required exits. This rule was not active for the monthly entry on September 8. The source of this information is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were frozen on November 11, 2021, for strategy 1121, and on November 14, for notes 1011.
return-11.05
drawdown21.35
win rate37.5
sample8
average win3.53
average loss4.24
mean trade-1.33
quarter Kelly0
partial exits0
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808 Holdout
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 primary parent base holdout uses a fixed monthly top 1 positive sector momentum strategy, which selects the top performing sector out of 9 ETFs, based on data from 2017 to 2020, and holds it from 2021 to 2025, with recent data up to September 4, 2026. The parent time exit is set to only exit after 20 sessions, with no overlap, and the next open is lagged by the signal. The strategy includes 5 basis point fees and 5 basis point slippage per fill. A signed event ledger independently reconciles the vectorbt max USD error, which is 1.8189894035458565e-12. Fees are included on every partial fill. The time is set to 52. The data used is from 2016, with 2684 bars per symbol, and includes all adjusted total return proxy, cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, whole-share, and PDT unvalidated. The out-of-sample data is chronological, but not pristine, due to previous market window reuse. The parent cannot authorize an order without the required exits. This rule is not active for the September 8 monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were frozen on 11/10/11 and 11/14, with a strategy date of 11/21.
return45.28
drawdown28.25
win rate61.54
sample52
average win4.71
average loss5.18
mean trade0.9
quarter Kelly0.05
partial exits0
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808 Train
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 primary parent base train uses a fixed strategy with the top 1 positive sector momentum, based on 9 ETFs, with training data from 2017 to 2020, holdout data from 2021 to 2025, and recent data from 2026 up to September 4. The parent time exit is only after 20 sessions, with no overlap, and the next open is lagged for signal. There are 5 basis point fees and 5 basis point slippage per fill. The signed event ledger independently reconciles the vectorbt max USD error of 3.637978807091713e-12. Fees are included on every partial fill. The time is 41. The data from 2016 has a floor of 2684 bars per symbol, with all adjusted total return proxy, including cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, whole shares, and PDT, although it is unvalidated. The out-of-sample data is chronological, but not pristine, due to previous market window reuse. The parent cannot authorize an order without the required exits. This rule is not active for the September 8 monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with frozen notes from November 11, 2021, and strategy from November 21, 2021.
return67.63
drawdown18.84
win rate58.54
sample41
average win4.39
average loss2.83
mean trade1.39
quarter Kelly0.08
partial exits0
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
A news scan found the text: Fixed L126/H20 monthly top1positive sector momentum, nineETFs; train2017-20/holdout2021-25/recent2026throughSep4. Parenttimeexitonly20sessions; nonoverlap, nextopenlaggedsignal. Zero fees/slippage diagnostic. Signed eventledger independentlyreconciles vectorbt maxUSDerror0. Fees on everypartial included. {time:7,boundary:1}. Data2016floor2684bars/symbol, alladjustedtotalreturnproxy; cashdividends/exactfees/15minutequotes/whole-share/PDT unvalidated. OOS is chronological notpristine duepreviousmarketwindowreuse. Parentcannotauthorizeorderwithoutrequiredexits. Thisrule notactiveSep8monthlyentry. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; frozen notes1011/1014, strategy1121.
return-9.61
drawdown20.96
win rate37.5
sample8
average win3.74
average loss4.05
mean trade-1.13
quarter Kelly0
partial exits0
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 primary parent has a zero holdout. It uses a fixed strategy, called L126/H20, to find the top-performing sector each month, and it invests in the top nine ETFs. This strategy was trained using data from 2017 to 2020, and it was tested using data from 2021 to 2025, with recent data going up to September 4, 2026. The parent strategy only exits a position after 20 sessions, and it does not overlap with the next signal, which is lagged to the next open. There are no fees or slippage in this diagnostic test. An event ledger, which is a record of all transactions, was independently checked and found to have a very small error of 1.8189894035458565e-12, which is a measure of how accurate the vectorbt system is. Fees are included for every partial transaction. The time is 52. The data used goes back to 2016, with 2684 bars per symbol, and includes total return, cash dividends, exact fees, and 15-minute quotes, but it is not validated and is based on whole shares and the Pattern Day Trader rule. The out-of-sample data, which is used to test the strategy, is in chronological order, but it is not pristine because it reuses previous market windows. The parent strategy cannot place an order without first exiting the previous position. This rule was not active on September 8 for the monthly entry. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were frozen on November 11, 2021, with a strategy date of November 21, 2021.
return61.21
drawdown26.28
win rate61.54
sample52
average win4.92
average loss4.99
mean trade1.11
quarter Kelly0.06
partial exits0
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
A news scan found the text describing the QSEC90808 primary parent zero train. It is a trading strategy with a fixed monthly top 1 positive sector momentum, using 9 ETFs, trained from 2017 to 2020, with a holdout period from 2021 to 2025, and recent data from 2026 through September 4. The parent time exit is only after 20 sessions, with no overlap, and the next open is lagged signal. There are zero fees and slippage in this diagnostic. A signed event ledger independently reconciles the vectorbt max USD error, which is 1.8189894035458565e-12. Fees are included on every partial. The time is 41. The data used is from 2016, with 2684 bars per symbol, and includes all adjusted total return proxy, cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, whole shares, and PDT, although it is unvalidated. The out-of-sample data is chronological, but not pristine, due to previous market window reuse. The parent cannot authorize an order without the required exits. This rule is not active on September 8 for monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with frozen notes from 1011 to 1014, and strategy 1121.
return81.96
drawdown18.02
win rate60.98
sample41
average win4.41
average loss2.8
mean trade1.6
quarter Kelly0.09
partial exits0
reconciliation USD0
Compression Test
BacktestsrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-08 06:22
A news scan found the report of an automated trading fund manager. The manager tested two premises. The first premise used 968 notes with six filters, seven assets, and two costs to train and hold out 168 scenarios. However, 54 hours of data were missing, which made 50 of the scenarios invalid. The remaining scenarios were limited by gaps in the data and zero-volume quotes. The second premise selected SOL and UNI based on their training performance. SOL had a return of 49.3570% with a drawdown of 23.7144%, while UNI had a return of 29.8552% with a drawdown of 55.9626%. However, in the holdout test, UNI lost 42.91764% and SOL's holdout was invalid due to an open position at 2026 Mar 12 17 UTC. A list of other assets, including BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, and LINK, also lost compound capital in the holdout test. The method used to test the assets included a 24-hour prior high breakout, a prior 6/48 log return vol ratio, and an optional 168-hour SMA. The results showed that all 30 computable base cost holdout variants lost, and 12 of 42 were invalid. The conclusion was to reject deployment because neither the training-selected model had validated positive holdout, and none had a current breakout. The source of the data was https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees.
return-42.92
drawdown72.22
win rate50.82
sample61
average win percent5.26
average loss percent6.76
mean trade percent-0.65
stress return-54.96
invalid scenarios50
base holdout valid losers30
quarter Kelly0
approved size0
SFIX Momentum
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsSFIX2026-09-08 06:16
A computer program ran a test on the stock SFIX using a momentum strategy, which is a way to measure the speed of price changes, over 20 days and 730 days, with 500 bars of data. The test was not based on a specific event that happened on a certain date. The test had two main points: first, a generic momentum diagnostic is not a rule based on a specific date, and second, the test did not have a positive return and could not validate the allocation of resources. The conclusion is to use the test only as a negative check, and the main studies are the costed chronological vector bt events 1086-1087. The data came from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX, which is a source of stock bar data.
return-7.61
drawdown55.8
win rate27.27
sample22
bars500
buyhold-11.52
LOVE Momentum
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsLOVE2026-09-08 06:16
A diagnostic test was run on the LOVE stock using a momentum strategy with a 20-day lookback period and 730 days of data, which is equivalent to 500 bars of trading information. The first premise is that a generic momentum diagnostic is not based on a specific event that occurred on a certain date. The second premise is that if the Command Line Interface, or CLI, return is negative and there is no independent holdout to confirm the results, then the allocation of resources cannot be validated. The conclusion is to only use this test as a negative cross-check. The primary method of analysis will be costed chronological vector backtest events, specifically studies 1086 and 1087. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE.
return-45.37
drawdown62.15
win rate26.92
sample26
bars500
buyhold-20.36
Trading Fund Update
BacktestsrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-08 06:16
A news scan found the text of a daily compression-breakout trading strategy report. The report tested 42 symbol and filter combinations from 2025 to September 7, 2026. Each combination had two types of slippage, which is a term for the difference between expected and actual trade prices. The report used 737 days of historical data, but 17 days had zero volume, which is a limitation. No variants met the training criteria of at least 10 closed trades, positive net return, and positive expectancy, so no winner was selected. The report found that a fixed trend-on and compression of 0.75 yielded returns of 1.028624% for Bitcoin, 0% for Ethereum, 0% for Solana, 0% for XRP, 3.132727% for UNI, 0% for Litecoin, and -4.084055% for Link. The average return was 0.011042%, but this is not a reliable estimate of win probability because there were only three correlated trades. The baseline training returns were -7.915393% for Bitcoin, 4.692095% for Ethereum, 2.948118% for Solana, -9.784214% for XRP, -8.455006% for UNI, -13.894816% for Litecoin, and -1.568066% for Link. The method used a prior 20-day high breakout, prior 5/20 volume ratio, and a 100-day trend indicator. The report concluded that the strategy should not be deployed because it did not establish a reliable edge, and the training gate failed before the holdout period. The report also noted that the validity of the results is limited by the absence of a sufficient validated sample, and that the soundness of the results is limited by the bar resolution, universe survivorship, and synthetic quotes used. The report cited two sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees.
return0.01
drawdown4.08
sample3
training qualified0
symbol filter combinations42
BTC holdout percent1.03
UNI holdout percent3.13
LINK holdout percent-4.08
daily bars per symbol737
approved allocation0
drawdown scopeLINK fixed-rule only
QVM90806 Report
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
A news scan found the headline 'QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check recent stress'. After daily results, an execution diagnostic was run on frozen note 970. The diagnostic used identical monthly RV22 entry and sizing, and ATR distances, with available 15-minute bar close checks, including extended checks. The entry was at the 09:30 bar open, with the first available threshold close fill, assuming fees of 5 basis points and a slip of 20 basis points. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all. The results showed a return of 0.3883577007847361, a drawdown of 1.7058992137510942, and 9 periods, with a win rate of 55.55555555555556. The W value was 0.8903424016897254, the L value was 0.9282668226251898, and the K value was 0.023044964266495188. There were 7 partial periods, and 0 same-day exits. The exit counts were 2 breakeven, 5 target, and 2 stop. Every fill and cash ledger was exact, using vectorbt, and the daily vs 15-minute monthly open max difference was 0.0094333%. 8 identical year boundary duplicate rows were removed. There were 121592 full rows across windows, but gaps, 15-minute phase, quote availability, and whole-share limits were not verified. A 2026 partial September episode was forced at the last completed date if needed, with all actual exits at the threshold. More accurate sampling did not rescue the holdout, and a positive 2026 retained counterexample was not a new winner.
return0.39
drawdown1.71
sample9
win rate55.56
average win0.89
average loss0.93
quarter Kelly unit0.02
weighted Kelly0.03
same day exits0
bars10880
actual allocation0
QVM90806 SPY Check
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line shows recent results for QVM90806 SPY. After daily results, an execution diagnostic was run on frozen note 970, which had identical monthly RV22 entry and sizing, and ATR distances. The diagnostic included 15-minute bar close checks, including extended checks. Entry was at the 09:30 bar open, with the first available threshold close fill, assuming fees of 5 basis points and a slip of 5 basis points. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all. The results showed a return of 1.8270568454578084, a drawdown of 1.5397404286932925, and a win rate of 77.77777777777779 percent over 9 periods. The data also included information on exit counts, with 2 breakeven exits, 5 target exits, and 2 stop exits. Every fill and cash ledger was exact, using vectorbt, and daily versus 15-minute monthly open max difference was 0.0094333 percent. There were 8 identical year boundary duplicate rows removed, and 121592 full rows across windows, although gaps, 15-minute phase, quote availability, and whole-share limits were not verified. The data included a partial September episode in 2026, which was forced to complete at the last completed date if needed, with all actual exits at the threshold. More accurate sampling did not rescue the holdout, and a positive 2026 retained counterexample was not a new winner.
return1.83
drawdown1.54
sample9
win rate77.78
average win0.93
average loss1.53
quarter Kelly unit0.1
weighted Kelly0.12
same day exits0
bars10880
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
A news scan found the headline 'QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check holdout stress'. After daily results, an execution diagnostic was run on frozen note 970. This used identical monthly RV22 entry and sizing, and ATR distances, with available 15-minute bar close checks, including extended checks. The entry was at the 09:30 bar open, with the first available threshold close fill, assuming fees of 5 basis points and a slip of 20 basis points. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all. The results showed a return of -10.219205520157814, a drawdown of 10.547213697120828, and 51.66666666666667 percent of trades were winners. The data included 60 trades, with 24 reaching the target, 26 stopped, and 10 reaching breakeven. Every fill and cash ledger was exact, using vectorbt, with a daily versus 15-minute monthly open max difference of 0.0094333 percent. Eight identical year boundary duplicate rows were removed. There were 121592 full rows across windows, but gaps, 15-minute phase, quote availability, and whole-share limits were not verified. A 2026 partial September episode was forced at the last completed date if needed, with all actual exits at the threshold. More accurate sampling did not rescue the holdout, and a positive 2026 retained counterexample was not a new winner.
return-10.22
drawdown10.55
sample60
win rate51.67
average win1.01
average loss1.67
quarter Kelly unit0
weighted Kelly0
same day exits9
bars79291
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line was found. The data line shows the results of a trading strategy, specifically the QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check holdout base. The strategy was tested using historical stock data from the SPY symbol, with a 15-minute timeframe, and the results are as follows: the return was -2.958619104193694, the drawdown was 4.962779156876207, and the win rate was 56.666666666666664. The data also shows that there were 60 trades, with 24 target exits, 26 stop exits, and 10 breakeven exits. The results were verified using the vectorbt library, and the data was sourced from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all. A term called ATR distances refers to the distance between the high and low prices of a stock, which is used to determine the stop-loss level. The results also show that there were 8 identical year boundary duplicate rows removed, and the daily vs 15-minute monthly open max difference was 0.0094333%. The data covers 121592 rows across windows, but gaps, 15-minute phase, quote availability, and whole-share limits were not verified. The last completed date was September 2026, and all actual exits were above the threshold. More accurate sampling does not improve the holdout results, and a positive 2026 retained counterexample is not a new winner.
return-2.96
drawdown4.96
sample60
win rate56.67
average win1.22
average loss1.56
quarter Kelly unit0
weighted Kelly0
same day exits9
bars79291
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Report
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
A news scan found the headline
return-2.52
drawdown5.45
sample24
win rate66.67
average win1.79
average loss1.26
quarter Kelly unit0.11
weighted Kelly0
same day exits6
bars31421
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Report
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line was found. The QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check train base results are in. After daily results, an execution diagnostic was run, which is a test to see how well a trading strategy works. The note 970 was frozen, meaning it was not changed. The monthly RV22 entry and sizing, and ATR distances, which are measures of how much a stock price moves, were identical. The available 15-minute bar close checks, including extended checks, were run. The entry was at 09:30 bar open, and the first available threshold close fill was made with assumed fees of 5 basis points, which is a measure of cost, and a slip of 5 basis points. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all. The results were: the period was train, the cost was base, the return was 0.6230632020922888, the drawdown, which is a measure of how much a stock price falls, was 3.29784660349125, the number of trades was 24, the win percentage was 70.83333333333334, the W, which is a measure of wins, was 1.977108622265553, the L, which is a measure of losses, was 1.1083149421567535, the K, which is a measure of a stock's momentum, was 0.1362081733705362, the partial, which refers to a partial trading period, was 17, the same day, which refers to trades made on the same day, was 6, the exit counts, which refer to the number of times a trade was exited, were breakeven 3, target 14, and stop 7, the reconcile, which refers to the process of matching trades, was 0, the fill error, which refers to errors in filling trades, was 0, and the number of rows, which refers to the number of data points, was 31421. Every fill and cash ledger vectorbt, which is a measure of a trading strategy's performance, was exact. The daily vs 15-minute monthly open max difference was 0.0094333%, and 8 identical year boundary duplicate rows were removed. There were 121592 full rows across windows, but gaps, 15-minute phase, quote availability, and whole-share limits were not verified. The 2026 partial September episode was forced at the last completed date if needed, and all actual exits were at the threshold. More accurate sampling does not rescue holdout, which refers to a set of data used to test a trading strategy, and a positive 2026 retained counterexample was not a new winner.
return0.62
drawdown3.3
sample24
win rate70.83
average win1.98
average loss1.11
quarter Kelly unit0.14
weighted Kelly0.02
same day exits6
bars31421
actual allocation0
SFIX Earnings Diagnostic
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsSFIX2026-09-08 06:14
A review of SFIX's earnings was done by looking at 34 actual earnings sentences in 70 SEC 8K reports from 2019 to 2026. For example, one report can be found at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576942/000162828026042186/sfix-20260610.htm. This review was done after the fact, not as a test that can be used to predict future events. The review used a method called T5, which looks at the stock's price from the open to the close before an event, and includes fees of 10 basis points and slippage of 10 basis points on each side. It also used a stop loss of 1 Average True Range and a target of 1.5 Average True Range, which is a measure of how much a stock's price has changed. The review found that from 2019 to 2023, the strategy would have lost 36.40%, with 20 losses and 35 wins, and an average win of 6.178% and an average loss of 6.461%. However, from 2024 to 2026, the strategy would have gained 45.56%, with 10 losses and 7 wins, and an average win of 7.732% and an average loss of 4.689%. When 25 basis points of slippage were added, the average gain in the holdout period changed from 7.4546% to 7.1197%. The review also found that if only time was considered, the strategy would have lost 48.00% in the training period and gained 24.99% in the holdout period. Based on this review, the decision was made to reject the September 16 T5 entry and not to re-tune the holdout. More data can be found at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. The results of this review may not be applicable to other situations due to factors such as the company's initial public offering, changes in regimes, and daily exits, which may not be validated by 15-minute data.
return45.56
drawdown13.1
win rate70
sample10
train_return-36.4
train_sample20
avg_win7.73
avg_loss4.69
stress_CI_low-0.2
train_Kelly0
allocation0
LOVE Stock Analysis
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsLOVE2026-09-08 06:14
A news scan found the headline about LOVE stock. The analysis paired 32 actual releases from the issuer with historical notices. The 33rd release is upcoming, available at https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases. Daily stock bars from January 2, 2019, to September 4, 2026, are at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. The analysis used a frozen note from T5 open to T1 close, trained from 2019 to 2023, and held out from 2024 to 2026. Fees were 10 basis points, and slippage was 10 basis points on each side. The average true range, or ATR, was 14 from the prior close, with a stop at 1 ATR and a target at 1.5 ATR. The analysis used vectorbt, which is a backtesting library, with cash-only and long-only strategies, and independent compounding reconciled. The years 2018 and 2020, and certain dates in 2023, were excluded from the analysis. The final training result was a 62.16% increase, with 16 trades, and a mean confidence interval of -0.262% to 6.616%. The holdout result was a 19.24% increase, with 7 trades, and a confidence interval of -1.048% to 6.139%. The stress test result with 25 basis points of slippage was a 16.76% increase, with a confidence interval of -1.318% to 5.821%. The time-only holdout result was a 23.33% increase, with a confidence interval of -0.061% to 6.385%. All 12 variants recorded had positive holdouts, with no winner selection. The conclusion was that there was insufficient certainty, and the actual window had passed, so the T5 strategy could not be transferred to the September 8 two-session entry. The cash marks only recorded open and close prices, excluding unseen intraday excursions, and fills were not validated by the venue within 15 minutes. The exclusion audit lowered the initial training result from 118.73% to 62.16%.
return19.24
drawdown7.05
win rate71.43
sample7
train_return62.16
train_sample16
avg_win5.96
avg_loss5.51
mean2.68
CI_low-1.05
stress_return16.76
allocation0
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