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1524 backtests, newest first
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
A frozen specification note, number 1344, was provided. The provider made a SIP adjustment from September 8, 2016, to 2026, which includes every NYSE session for each ETF, but does not include data from 2010 to 2015. This is an extension test where only entries and exits within a partition are considered, and a holdout period from 2019 to 2025 has 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding boundary spanning trades. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. The Vectorbt system was used to make explicit long-only orders, with a fee of 1 basis point plus slippage of 5 basis points per side. The rule for trailing stops is based on the last session's open price, a lagged 20-session mean of high and low prices, and a stop loss of 1 ADR and a target of 1.5 ADR. The system is managed daily, with stops and targets adjusted to avoid ambiguity and adverse gap fills. The results are based on daily bar data and do not claim 15-minute execution. A bootstrap analysis of 10,000 complete calendar window means was conducted across four ETFs. The verdict rejects live adoption if uncertainty, cost, or execution gates fail, and a positive point estimate alone is not enough for adoption. The sources for this information are https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return0.16
drawdown2.93
win rate43.75
sample32
mean trade pct0.03
average win pct1.65
average loss pct1.23
CI low pct-0.75
CI high pct0.96
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side6
calendar windows8
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
A frozen specification note1344 was made. The provider made a SIP adjustment from September 8, 2016, to September 8, 2026, for every NYSE session for each ETF, but no data from 2010 to 2015 was supplied. This was an extension test where only entries and exits within a partition were considered, and a holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding trades that span boundaries. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. There was no periodic rebalance between sleeves, and idle cash was set to 0. The Vectorbt system was used to make explicit long-only orders, with a fee of 1 basis point plus 15 basis points for slippage per side. The cash return was reconciled with the Vectorbt trade P&L accounting, considering the entry fee denominator. The rule managed was to use the last session's open, with a stop at 1 ADR and a target at 1.5 ADR, based on the lagged 20-session mean of high and low prices. If this rule did not apply, the third session's close was used. The system managed daily OHLC stops to avoid ambiguity, and adverse gap fills were capped at the target. A bootstrap of 10,000 complete calendar window means was done across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. Confidence intervals and per-symbol statistics were saved to match the observation title. The verdict was to reject live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates failed, and a positive point estimate alone was not enough for adoption. The sources used were https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return-1.66
drawdown3.41
win rate37.5
sample32
mean trade pct-0.2
average win pct1.75
average loss pct1.37
CI low pct-1.01
CI high pct0.76
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side16
calendar windows8
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
A frozen specification note1344 was made. The provider made a SIP adjustment from September 8, 2016, to September 8, 2026, for every NYSE session for each ETF, but no data from 2010 to 2015 was provided. This was an extension test where only entries and exits within a partition were considered, and a holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding boundary spanning trades. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. There was no periodic rebalance between sleeves, and idle cash was set to 0. The Vectorbt system was used with explicit long-only orders, a fee of 1 basis point, and slippage of 5 basis points per side. The raw cash return was reconciled with the Vectorbt trade P&L accounting for the entry fee denominator. The rule managed was to use the last session open, a lagged 20-session mean high-low stop of 1 ADR, and a target of 1.5 ADR. If this rule did not apply, the third session close was used. Daily OHLC stops were managed to avoid ambiguity, and adverse gap fills were capped at the target. A bootstrap of 10,000 complete calendar window means was done across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. Confidence intervals and per-symbol statistics were saved to match the title. The verdict was to reject live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates failed, and a positive point estimate alone was not enough for adoption. The sources used were https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return-0.07
drawdown2.93
win rate40.63
sample32
mean trade pct0
average win pct1.81
average loss pct1.24
CI low pct-0.81
CI high pct0.96
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side6
calendar windows8
QTR9090400
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
This is a frozen specification note1344. The provider made a SIP adjustment from September 8, 2016, to 2026, which includes every NYSE session for each ETF, but does not include data from 2010 to 2015. This is an extension test where only entries and exits within a partition are considered, and a holdout period from 2019 to 2025 has 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding boundary spanning trades. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. The vectorbt system was used to generate orders with a long-only strategy, and a fee of 1 basis point plus a slippage of 15 basis points per side was applied. The rule for opening a position is from the last session's open to the next month's third close. The system managed daily OHLC stops and ambiguity, and adverse gap fills were capped. A bootstrap of 10,000 complete calendar window means was performed across four ETFs, and confidence interval and per-symbol statistics were saved. The verdict rejects live adoption if uncertainty, cost, or execution gates fail, and a positive point estimate alone is not enough for adoption. The sources for this information are https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return3.28
drawdown5.5
win rate53.13
sample32
mean trade pct0.42
average win pct1.86
average loss pct1.21
CI low pct-0.75
CI high pct1.59
quarter Kelly0.06
cost bps side16
calendar windows8
QTR9090400
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
A frozen specification note, number 1344, explains how a provider adjusted its system. The adjustment, which started on September 8, 2016, and will end on September 8, 2026, happens every 2685 NYSE sessions for each exchange-traded fund, or ETF. No data from 2010 to 2015 is provided. This is an extension test where only entries and exits within a certain partition are considered. A holdout period from 2019 to 2025 has 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding trades that span boundaries. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. There was no periodic rebalance between sleeves, and idle cash was set to zero. A system called Vectorbt was used to make explicit long-only orders, with a fee of 1 basis point plus 5 basis points for slippage per side. The cash return was reconciled with the trade profit and loss accounting, considering the entry fee. The rule for opening a trade is from the last session's open to the next month's third close. Daily high, low, open, and close prices were managed to stop ambiguity, and adverse gap fills were capped. A target gap was also capped. Bootstrap sampling of 10,000 complete calendar window means was done across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. Confidence interval and per-symbol statistics were saved to match the observation title. A verdict rejects live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates fail. A positive point estimate alone is not enough for adoption. The sources for this information are https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return4.94
drawdown5.31
win rate62.5
sample32
mean trade pct0.62
average win pct1.77
average loss pct1.3
CI low pct-0.55
CI high pct1.79
quarter Kelly0.09
cost bps side6
calendar windows8
QTR9090400
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
A frozen specification note1344 was made. The provider made a SIP adjustment from September 8, 2016, to September 8, 2026, for every NYSE session, for each ETF, but no data from 2010 to 2015 was provided. This was an extension test where only entries and exits within a partition were considered, and a holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding boundary-spanning trades. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. There was no periodic rebalance between sleeves, and idle cash was set to 0. The Vectorbt system was used with explicit long-only orders, a fee of 1 basis point, and slippage of 15 basis points per side. The cash return was reconciled with the trade P&L accounting for the entry fee denominator. The rule for the parent was to use the close of the second-to-last session to determine the close of the next month's third session. Daily OHLC stops were managed to avoid ambiguity, and adverse gap fills were capped at the target. A bootstrap of 10,000 complete calendar window means was run across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. The verdict rejects live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates fail, and a positive point estimate alone is not enough for adoption. The sources used were https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return4.52
drawdown6.51
win rate56.25
sample32
mean trade pct0.58
average win pct2.34
average loss pct1.67
CI low pct-1
CI high pct2.15
quarter Kelly0.06
cost bps side16
calendar windows8
QTR9090400
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
A frozen specification note1344 was made by the provider. The provider made a SIP adjustment from September 8, 2016, to 2026, which includes every NYSE session for each ETF, but does not include data from 2010 to 2015. This is an extension test where only entries and exits within a partition are considered. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 has 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding boundary spanning trades. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. There was no periodic rebalance between sleeves, and idle cash was set to 0. The vectorbt system was used with explicit long-only orders, a fee of 1 basis point, and slippage of 5 basis points per side. The raw cash return was reconciled with the VBT trade P&L accounting for the entry fee denominator. The rule for the parent is to use the close of the penultimate session to the close of the next month's third session. The test was managed daily with OHLC stops, and ambiguity was handled by filling adverse gaps and capping target gaps. Daily bar touches were used for preliminary fills, but no 15-minute execution or whole-lot replication was claimed. A bootstrap of 10,000 complete calendar window means was used across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. Confidence intervals and per-symbol statistics were saved to match the title of the observation. The verdict rejects live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates fail, and a positive point estimate alone is not enough for adoption. The sources used were https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return6.2
drawdown6.23
win rate59.38
sample32
mean trade pct0.79
average win pct2.41
average loss pct1.59
CI low pct-0.8
CI high pct2.36
quarter Kelly0.08
cost bps side6
calendar windows8
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
A frozen specification note, number 1344, was made. The provider made an adjustment to the SIP, which is a system that provides stock prices, from September 8, 2016, to September 8, 2026, for every NYSE session for each exchange-traded fund, or ETF, which is a type of investment fund. No data from 2010 to 2015 was provided. A holdout test was done, which means that only the entries and exits within a certain partition, or section, were considered. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, and trades that spanned boundaries were excluded. Four independent cash sleeves, or pools of money, were initially equal, with $250 in each, and there was no leverage, which means borrowing money to invest, and no periodic rebalancing, or adjusting, of the sleeves. The vectorbt system, which is a backtesting framework, was used to make explicit long-only trades, which means buying stocks with the expectation of selling them at a higher price, with a fee of 1 basis point, or 0.01%, plus slippage, or the difference between the expected and actual price, of 15 basis points, or 0.15%, per side. The cash return was reconciled with the vectorbt trade profit and loss accounting, which means that the cash return was compared to the profit and loss of the trades, and the entry fee was considered. The rule sensitivity was tested, which means that the rules for making trades were adjusted to see how they affected the results. The rules were based on the last session open, the lagged 20 session mean, which is the average of the high and low prices over the last 20 sessions, and the stop, which is the price at which a trade is automatically sold, was set at 1.25 times the average daily range, or ADR, and the target was set at 2 times the ADR. If these conditions were not met, the trade was made based on the third session close. The daily open, high, low, and close, or OHLC, prices were used to manage the trades, and the stop was set first to avoid ambiguity, or confusion. Adverse gap fills, which are trades made at a worse price than expected, were filled at the open, and target gap fills were capped at the target price. Daily bar touch fills, which are trades made when the price touches a certain level, were preliminary, and it was not claimed that the trades were executed at a specific 15-minute interval, nor was it claimed that the trades were replicated exactly. A bootstrap test, which is a statistical test, was done 10,000 times, and the results were saved. The verdict was that the strategy should not be adopted if the uncertainty, cost, or execution gates, which are the conditions that must be met for a trade to be made, failed. A positive point estimate, which is a single estimate of the expected return, alone was not enough to adopt the strategy. The sources of the information were https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return-14.57
drawdown19.42
win rate43.98
sample332
mean trade pct-0.19
average win pct1.61
average loss pct1.59
CI low pct-0.52
CI high pct0.15
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side16
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
This is a frozen specification note1344 from a provider. The provider made an adjustment to the Systematic Investment Plan, which includes all NYSE sessions from September 8, 2016, to September 8, 2026, for each Exchange-Traded Fund, but does not include data from 2010 to 2015. A holdout test was conducted, which only included entries and exits within a specific partition. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding trades that span boundaries. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. There was no periodic rebalance between sleeves, and idle cash was set to 0. The Vectorbt system was used to generate orders, with a long-only strategy, a fee of 1 basis point, and slippage of 5 basis points per side. The cash return was reconciled with the Vectorbt trade profit and loss accounting, considering the entry fee denominator. The rule sensitivity was based on the last session's open, a lagged 20-session mean of high-low, with a stop at 1.25 times the average daily range and a target at 2 times the average daily range. If this condition was not met, the target was set to the third session's close. The system managed daily high-low-close stops, with ambiguity resolved by using the first stop, and adverse gap fills were capped at the target. A bootstrap analysis was conducted with 10,000 complete calendar window means across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. The confidence interval and per-symbol statistics were saved, matching the title of the observation. The verdict rejected live adoption when uncertainty, cost, and execution gates failed, and a positive point estimate alone was not enough for adoption. The sources of this information are https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return0.86
drawdown12.45
win rate47.29
sample332
mean trade pct0.01
average win pct1.69
average loss pct1.49
CI low pct-0.32
CI high pct0.35
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side6
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
This is a frozen specification note1344. The provider made a SIP adjustment from September 8, 2016, to September 8, 2026, with data present for each ETF in every 2685 NYSE session, but no data was supplied for 2010-2015. A holdout test was conducted, where only entries and exits within the partition were considered, and the holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding boundary-spanning trades. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. The Vectorbt system was used to generate orders with a long-only strategy, with a fee of 1 basis point plus 15 basis points for slippage per side. The cash return was reconciled with the trade profit and loss accounting, considering the entry fee. The rule sensitivity was based on the last session's open, with a stop at 1 ADR and a target at 2 ADR, using a 20-session mean of high-low values. Other rules were based on the third session's close. Daily OHLC stops were managed to avoid ambiguity, with adverse gap fills and target gap capped targets. A bootstrap analysis was conducted with 10,000 complete calendar window means across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. The results included confidence intervals and per-symbol statistics, saved to match the observation title. The verdict rejected live adoption when uncertainty, cost, and execution gates failed, as a positive point estimate alone was not enough for adoption. The sources used were https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return-21.58
drawdown25.81
win rate37.65
sample332
mean trade pct-0.29
average win pct1.61
average loss pct1.44
CI low pct-0.6
CI high pct0.03
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side16
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
A frozen specification note, number 1344, was made by a provider. The provider adjusted the Systematic Investment Plan, or SIP, from September 8, 2016, to September 8, 2026. This adjustment was made for every 2685 New York Stock Exchange, or NYSE, session for each Exchange-Traded Fund, or ETF. No data from 2010 to 2015 was provided. A holdout test was done, which only included entries and exits within a certain partition. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, but trades that spanned boundaries were excluded. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250 in cash, and no leverage was used. There was no periodic rebalancing of cash across sleeves, and idle cash was set to 0. The Vectorbt system was used to make explicit long-only orders, with a fee of 1 basis point and slippage of 5 basis points per side. The raw cash return was reconciled with the Vectorbt trade profit and loss accounting, taking into account the entry fee denominator. The rules for the test were as follows: the last session open, a lagged 20-session mean of high and low with a stop at 1 Average Daily Range, or ADR, and a target at 2 ADR, and otherwise the third session close. The test was managed daily, with open, high, low, and close, or OHLC, stops and ambiguity resolved first, adverse gap fills at open, and target gap capped at target. Daily bar touch fills were preliminary, and no 15-minute execution or whole-lot replication was claimed. A bootstrap of 10,000 complete calendar window means was done across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. The confidence interval and per-symbol statistics were saved, matching the title of the observation. The verdict was to reject live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates failed, and a positive point estimate alone was not enough for adoption. The sources for this information were https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return-7.42
drawdown14.74
win rate40.36
sample332
mean trade pct-0.09
average win pct1.7
average loss pct1.3
CI low pct-0.4
CI high pct0.23
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side6
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
This is a note about a frozen specification. The provider made an adjustment to the data from September 8, 2016, to 2026, including every NYSE session for each ETF, but did not supply data from 2010 to 2015. The holdout test only included entries and exits within a certain partition. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding trades that spanned boundaries. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage or periodic rebalancing. The Vectorbt system was used with explicit long-only orders, a fee of 1 basis point, and slippage of 15 basis points per side. The rule sensitivity was based on the last session's open price, a 20-session mean of high and low prices, and a stop loss of 0.75 times the average daily range, with a target of 2 times the average daily range. The test managed daily high, low, open, and close prices, with stops and targets adjusted accordingly. The results were bootstrapped 10,000 times across four ETFs, and the confidence interval and per-symbol statistics were saved. The verdict was to reject live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates failed, and a positive point estimate alone was not enough for adoption. The sources of the data were https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return-23.34
drawdown26.49
win rate31.63
sample332
mean trade pct-0.32
average win pct1.66
average loss pct1.23
CI low pct-0.59
CI high pct-0.02
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side16
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
This is a frozen specification note1344 from the provider. The SIP adjustment includes all NYSE sessions from September 8, 2016, to September 8, 2026, for each ETF, but does not include data from 2010 to 2015. A holdout test was conducted, which only included entries and exits within a specific partition. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding trades that spanned boundaries. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. The Vectorbt system was used to generate explicit long-only orders, with a fee of 1 basis point and slippage of 5 basis points per side. The raw cash return was reconciled with the Vectorbt trade profit and loss accounting, using the entry fee as the denominator. The rule sensitivity was based on the last session's open price, with a stop loss set at 0.75 times the average daily range and a target set at 2 times the average daily range. If this condition was not met, the target was set at the third session's close price. The test was managed daily, with stops and targets set at the open, high, low, and close prices. Bootstrap sampling was used to generate 10,000 complete calendar window means across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. The results included confidence intervals and per-symbol statistics, which were saved to match the observation title. The verdict rejected live adoption when uncertainty, cost, and execution gates failed, and a positive point estimate alone was not enough for adoption. The sources used were https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return-9.5
drawdown14.71
win rate33.73
sample332
mean trade pct-0.12
average win pct1.75
average loss pct1.07
CI low pct-0.39
CI high pct0.18
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side6
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
This is a frozen specification note 1344 from a provider. The provider made an adjustment to the Systematic Investment Plan, which includes all NYSE sessions from September 8, 2016, to 2026, for each Exchange-Traded Fund, but does not include data from 2010 to 2015. A holdout test was conducted, which only included entries and exits within a certain partition. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding trades that span boundaries. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. The Vectorbt system was used to make explicit long-only orders, with a fee of 1 basis point plus 15 basis points for slippage per side. The cash return was reconciled with the Vectorbt trade profit and loss accounting, considering the entry fee denominator. The rule sensitivity was based on the last session's open, with a stop at 0.75 Average Daily Range and a target at 1.5 Average Daily Range, or the third session's close if otherwise. The test managed daily high, low, open, and close stops, with ambiguity resolved by stop-first, and adverse gap fills were opened, with target gaps capped at the target. Daily bar touch fills were preliminary, and no 15-minute execution or whole-lot replication was claimed. A bootstrap of 10,000 complete calendar window means was conducted across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. The confidence interval and per-symbol statistics were saved, matching the title. The verdict rejects live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates fail, and a positive point estimate alone is not enough for adoption. The sources of this information include a publication from Purdue University and a stock bars dataset from Aditya Perswal.
return-25.1
drawdown27.26
win rate34.34
sample332
mean trade pct-0.34
average win pct1.37
average loss pct1.24
CI low pct-0.59
CI high pct-0.09
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side16
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
This is a frozen specification note1344 from a provider. The provider made an adjustment to the Systematic Investment Plan, which started on September 8, 2016, and will end on September 8, 2026. The plan is applied to every 2685 New York Stock Exchange session for each Exchange-Traded Fund, but does not include data from 2010 to 2015. A holdout test was conducted, which only included entries and exits within a specific partition. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding trades that spanned boundaries. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. The Vectorbt system was used to generate explicit long-only orders, with a fee of 1 basis point and slippage of 5 basis points per side. The raw cash return was reconciled with the Vectorbt trade profit and loss accounting, taking into account the entry fee denominator. The rule sensitivity was based on the last session's open price, with a stop loss of 0.75 times the average daily range and a target of 1.5 times the average daily range. If this condition was not met, the target was set to the third session's close price. The test managed daily high, low, open, and close prices, with stop-loss ambiguity resolved first, and adverse gap fills opening, with target gaps capped. A bootstrap test was conducted with 10,000 complete calendar window means across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. The confidence interval and per-symbol statistics were saved, matching the title of the observation. The verdict rejects live adoption when uncertainty, cost, and execution gates fail, and a positive point estimate alone is not enough for adoption. The source of this information includes a study on equity returns at the turn of the month from Purdue University and stock bar data from a website.
return-11.57
drawdown15.28
win rate36.45
sample332
mean trade pct-0.14
average win pct1.49
average loss pct1.08
CI low pct-0.39
CI high pct0.11
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side6
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
A frozen specification note, number 1344, was made by the provider. The provider adjusted the SIP, which stands for Securities Information Processor, for all data from September 8, 2016, to 2026, and made sure that every NYSE session was present for each ETF, or exchange-traded fund, but did not supply any data from 2010 to 2015. This was a holdout test, meaning it was a test where only entries and exits within a certain partition were considered. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, and trades that spanned boundaries were excluded. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. There was no periodic rebalance of cash across sleeves, and any idle cash was set to zero. The vectorbt system was used to make explicit long-only orders, with a fee of 1 basis point plus slippage of 15 basis points per side. The raw cash return was reconciled with the VBT trade P&L, or profit and loss, accounting for the entry fee denominator. The rule for trailing stops was to use the last session's open price, and a lagged 20-session mean of the high-low price, with a stop at 1 ADR, or average daily range, and a target at 1.5 ADR. If this rule did not apply, the third session's close was used. The system managed daily OHLC, or open-high-low-close, stops to avoid ambiguity, and adverse gap fills were capped at the target. The trail stop was activated after a gain of 1 ADR and updated the next day, not every 15 minutes. Daily bar touch fills were preliminary, and no claim was made about 15-minute execution or whole-lot replication. A bootstrap test was run 10,000 times, using complete calendar window means across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. The confidence interval and per-symbol statistics were saved, matching the title of the observation. The verdict was to reject live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates failed, and a positive point estimate alone was not enough to adopt the system. The sources used were https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return-23.53
drawdown26.31
win rate39.46
sample332
mean trade pct-0.32
average win pct1.33
average loss pct1.39
CI low pct-0.59
CI high pct-0.03
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side16
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
This is a frozen specification note1344. The provider made a SIP adjustment from September 8, 2016, to 2026, and every 2685 NYSE session is present for each ETF, but no data from 2010 to 2015 is supplied. This is a holdout test, where only entries and exits within the partition are considered. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 has 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding boundary spanning trades. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. There was no periodic cross-sleeve rebalance, and idle cash was set to 0. Vectorbt was used to generate orders, with an explicit long-only strategy, a fee of 1 basis point, and slippage of 5 basis points per side. The rule trail is based on the last session's open, a lagged 20-session mean of high-low, stop 1 ADR, and target 1.5 ADR. If this rule does not apply, the third session's close is used. The test was managed daily, with OHLC stops and ambiguity resolved by using the first stop, and adverse gap fills were set to open, with target gaps capped at the target. The trail 1 ADR was activated after +1 ADR and updated the next day, not every 15 minutes. Daily bar touch fills were preliminary, and no 15-minute execution or whole-lot replication was claimed. A bootstrap of 10,000 complete calendar window means was run across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. The confidence interval and per-symbol statistics were saved, matching the title. The verdict rejects live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates fail, and a positive point estimate alone is not enough for adoption. The sources used were https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return-9.72
drawdown15.41
win rate42.47
sample332
mean trade pct-0.12
average win pct1.44
average loss pct1.26
CI low pct-0.39
CI high pct0.17
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side6
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
A frozen specification note, number 1344, explains the rules for a trading system. The system uses data from the New York Stock Exchange, or NYSE, from September 8, 2016, to 2026, but does not include data from 2010 to 2015. This is a test to see how well the system works, called a holdout test, where the system can only make trades within a certain time period. The test from 2019 to 2025 includes 83 complete calendar windows and 332 trades of exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, that are correlated, but excludes trades that span across boundaries. The system starts with four separate accounts, each with $250 in cash, and does not use borrowed money, or leverage, and does not move money between accounts periodically. The system uses a method called vectorbt to make trades, only buying, not selling, with a fee of 1 basis point, or 1bp, plus a slippage of 15bp for each trade. The system's rules are based on the opening price of the last trading session, and use a stop-loss order, which is an order to sell a stock when it falls to a certain price, at 1 average daily range, or ADR, below the target price, and a target price at 1.5 ADR above the stop-loss price. If the system does not meet certain conditions, it uses the closing price of the third trading session instead. The system also takes into account gaps in prices, where the price of a stock jumps up or down suddenly. The system does not claim to be able to execute trades at a specific time, such as every 15 minutes, and does not try to replicate the exact trades made by the system. The system uses a method called bootstrapping to test its performance, running 10,000 simulations of complete calendar windows across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. The results include confidence intervals, or CI, and statistics for each symbol, saved in a file with a title that matches the observation. The system will not be used in live trading if it does not meet certain conditions, such as passing uncertainty, cost, and execution tests. A positive estimate of the system's performance is not enough to adopt it for live trading. The sources for this information include a research paper from Purdue University and a website with stock market data.
return-24.07
drawdown27.08
win rate40.36
sample332
mean trade pct-0.33
average win pct1.34
average loss pct1.46
CI low pct-0.61
CI high pct-0.04
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side16
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
This is a frozen specification note. The provider made an adjustment to the Systematic Investment Plan, which started on September 8, 2016, and will end on September 8, 2026. The plan is present for every New York Stock Exchange session for each Exchange-Traded Fund, but it does not include data from 2010 to 2015. The holdout test only includes entries and exits within a certain partition. From 2019 to 2025, there were 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding trades that span boundaries. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. There was no periodic rebalancing between sleeves, and idle cash was set to 0. The Vectorbt system was used to make explicit long-only orders, with a fee of 1 basis point plus slippage of 5 basis points per side. The raw cash return was reconciled with the Vectorbt trade Profit and Loss accounting, taking into account the entry fee denominator. The rule managed the trades as follows: the last session open, a lagged 20-session mean of high-low with a stop at 1 Average Daily Range and a target at 1.5 Average Daily Range, or the third session close. The daily Open-High-Low-Close stop was managed to avoid ambiguity, with adverse gap fills opening and target gap capped at the target. Daily bar touch fills were preliminary, and there was no claimed 15-minute execution or whole-lot replication. A bootstrap of 10,000 complete calendar window means was run across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. The confidence interval and per-symbol statistics were saved, matching the title. The verdict rejects live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates fail, and a positive point estimate alone is not enough for adoption. The sources for this information are https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return-10.36
drawdown16.54
win rate43.07
sample332
mean trade pct-0.13
average win pct1.45
average loss pct1.32
CI low pct-0.41
CI high pct0.16
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side6
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
This is a frozen specification note. The provider made an adjustment to the Systematic Investment Plan, which includes all NYSE sessions from September 8, 2016, to 2026, for each Exchange-Traded Fund, but does not include data from 2010 to 2015. The holdout test only includes entries and exits within a specific partition. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 has 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding trades that span boundaries. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage or periodic rebalancing. The Vectorbt system was used to generate explicit long-only orders, with a fee of 1 basis point plus 15 basis points for slippage per side. The rule for opening a position is from the last session's open to the next month's third close. The system manages daily high, low, open, and close prices, with stops and targets set to avoid ambiguity and adverse gap fills. A bootstrap analysis of 10,000 complete calendar window means was conducted across four ETFs. The results include confidence intervals and per-symbol statistics, which are saved with the observation title. The verdict rejects live adoption if uncertainty, cost, or execution gates fail, and a positive point estimate alone is not enough for adoption. The sources for this information are https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return5.18
drawdown19.02
win rate51.81
sample332
mean trade pct0.08
average win pct1.85
average loss pct1.83
CI low pct-0.42
CI high pct0.56
quarter Kelly0.01
cost bps side16
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
This is a frozen specification note1344. The provider made a SIP adjustment from September 8, 2016, to September 8, 2026, which includes every NYSE session for each ETF, but does not include data from 2010 to 2015. The holdout test only includes entries and exits within a certain partition. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 has 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding trades that span boundaries. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250 in cash, and no leverage was used. The Vectorbt system was used to make explicit long-only trades, with a fee of 1 basis point plus 5 basis points for slippage per side. The rule for opening a trade is to buy at the last session's open and sell at the next month's third close. The system managed daily high, low, open, and close prices, with a stop-loss order to limit losses. A bootstrap analysis was done with 10,000 complete calendar window means across four ETFs. The results are saved with the title. A verdict to reject live adoption was made when uncertainty, cost, and execution gates failed. A news scan found the source https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return24.17
drawdown15.94
win rate58.13
sample332
mean trade pct0.28
average win pct1.84
average loss pct1.9
CI low pct-0.22
CI high pct0.76
quarter Kelly0.04
cost bps side6
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
This is a frozen specification note. The provider made a SIP adjustment from September 8, 2016, to 2026, including every NYSE session for each ETF, but did not supply data from 2010 to 2015. The holdout test only includes entries and exits within a partition. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 has 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding boundary-spanning trades. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage or periodic rebalance. The Vectorbt system was used with explicit long-only orders, a fee of 1 basis point, and slippage of 15 basis points per side. The rule for the parent is to buy at the close of the second-to-last session and sell at the close of the third session of the next month. The system managed daily high, low, open, and close prices, with stops and targets set to avoid ambiguity. A study from Purdue University and stock bar data from Aditya Perswal were used as sources.
return-9.22
drawdown22.42
win rate51.2
sample332
mean trade pct-0.1
average win pct1.66
average loss pct1.95
CI low pct-0.57
CI high pct0.36
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side16
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
This is a frozen specification note1344. The provider made a SIP adjustment from September 8, 2016, to 2026, which includes every 2685 NYSE session for each ETF, but does not include data from 2010 to 2015. A holdout test was conducted, which only included entries and exits within a partition. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, excluding trades that spanned boundaries. The test started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250, and no leverage was used. There was no periodic rebalance between sleeves, and idle cash was set to 0. The Vectorbt system was used with explicit long-only orders, a fee of 1 basis point, and slippage of 5 basis points per side. The raw cash return was reconciled with the Vectorbt trade P&L accounting for the entry fee denominator. The rule parent was based on the penultimate session close to the next month's third close. The system managed daily OHLC stops, with ambiguity resolved by stop-first, adverse gap fills open, and target gap capped target. Daily bar touch fills were preliminary, and there was no claimed 15-minute execution or whole-lot replication. A bootstrap of 10,000 complete calendar window means was conducted across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. Confidence intervals and per-symbol statistics were saved, matching the title of the observation. The verdict rejects live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates fail, and a positive point estimate alone is not enough for adoption. The sources for this information are https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return7.17
drawdown14.64
win rate56.33
sample332
mean trade pct0.1
average win pct1.7
average loss pct1.97
CI low pct-0.37
CI high pct0.56
quarter Kelly0.01
cost bps side6
calendar windows83
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
A frozen specification note1344 was made. The provider made a SIP adjustment from September 8, 2016, to 2026, for every 2685 NYSE session, for each ETF, but no data from 2010 to 2015 was supplied. The training and testing only included entries and exits within a certain partition. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, and trades that spanned boundaries were excluded. There were four independent cash sleeves, each initially worth 250 USD, with no leverage and no periodic rebalancing between sleeves, and idle cash was set to 0. The vectorbt system was used with explicit long-only orders, a fee of 1 basis point, and slippage of 15 basis points per side. The raw cash return was reconciled with the VBT trade P&L, taking into account the entry fee denominator. The rule sensitivity was based on the last session's open, a lagged 20-session mean of high-low, a stop of 1.25 ADR, and a target of 2 ADR. If these conditions were not met, the third session's close was used. The system was managed daily, with OHLC stops and ambiguity resolved by filling at the open, and targets were capped. A bootstrap of 10,000 complete calendar window means was run across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. The results included confidence intervals and per-symbol statistics, saved to match the title. The verdict rejected live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates failed, and a positive point estimate alone was not enough for adoption. The sources of this information are https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
return-16.95
drawdown19.75
win rate37.5
sample136
mean trade pct-0.54
average win pct1
average loss pct1.46
CI low pct-0.91
CI high pct-0.16
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side16
calendar windows34
QTR9090400
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-09 04:09
A frozen specification note, number 1344, was made by a provider. The provider adjusted the Systematic Investment Plan, or SIP, from September 8, 2016, to September 8, 2026. This adjustment happened every 2685 New York Stock Exchange, or NYSE, session for each Exchange-Traded Fund, or ETF. No data from 2010 to 2015 was provided. The training and testing of the system only included entries and exits within a certain partition. The holdout period from 2019 to 2025 had 83 complete calendar windows and 332 correlated ETF trades, but trades that spanned boundaries were excluded. The system started with four independent cash sleeves, each with $250 in cash, and no leverage was used. There was no periodic rebalancing of cash across sleeves, and idle cash was set to 0. The system used Vectorbt to make explicit long-only orders, with a fee of 1 basis point, or 1bp, plus slippage of 5 basis points, or 5bp, per side. The raw cash return was reconciled with the Vectorbt trade profit and loss, or P&L, accounting for the entry fee denominator. The rule sensitivity was based on the last session's open price, the lagged 20-session mean of the high-low price, and a stop of 1.25 average daily range, or ADR, with a target of 2 ADR. If these conditions were not met, the system used the third session's close price. The system managed daily open-high-low-close, or OHLC, stops to avoid ambiguity, and adverse gap fills were capped at the target price. Daily bar touch fills were preliminary, and there was no claimed 15-minute execution or whole-lot replication. The system used bootstrapping with 10,000 complete calendar window means across four ETFs, not 332 independent trades. Confidence intervals, or CI, and per-symbol statistics were saved to match the observation title. The verdict rejected live adoption when uncertainty, cost, or execution gates failed. A positive point estimate alone was not enough for adoption. The sources for this information include a publication from Purdue University and a dataset from Aditya Perswal.
return-11.11
drawdown14.53
win rate38.97
sample136
mean trade pct-0.34
average win pct1.16
average loss pct1.29
CI low pct-0.71
CI high pct0.04
quarter Kelly0
cost bps side6
calendar windows34
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