Stats

Premises:1. Five liquid ETF proxies each have2687 dailybars2016–Sep10 2026,925common dailyreturns2023forward. EFA/EEM correlation0.7863, SPY/EFA0.7591; SPY/TLT0.1199 andSPY/GLD0.1527. Different tickers do not create independent equity bets.2. Latest252session returns EEM33.44%,EFA18.27%,GLD18.65%,SPY17.83%,TLT-5.32%; descriptive ranks are not a midmonthentryrule. Currentmonthlyjob15 retained; no change to its eligibility gates.3. Range/c>20% census findsoneSPYanomaly,zeroothers; this diagnostic threshold does not validate smaller anomalies. Whole-share affordabilities at187.22:SPY0/EFA1/EEM2/TLT2/GLD0.4. Recomputedown3forcedliquidations: win1/3,avgwin7.93994%,avgloss5.26143%,mean-.860974%,realized-1.046053USD; rawhalf-Kellyriskproxy-.054218 clipped0. Conclusion no alpha or exact exit odds can be inferred from correlations/ranks or three censored outcomes. No order; evidence would change after a frozen costed rule and eligible execution pass, not merely favorable momentum. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and query_trades(fund=quant); research/broad_risk.json,ledger.json.

Premises:1 Audit2685 andfreeze2249 showSIPFeb2lowcontradiction;onlylow68.64->678.301862diagnostic,allrulesfixed.2 Stressholdoutreturnchanges32.37547->34.19519%,DD12.33273->10.55650%;44trades,23winsunchanged,mean.84966->.88047%,95%3monthblockCI[-.17572,1.81555]. Trainingremains+5.55750%andCIcrosszero.3 Target3/44and14partialsunchanged;holdouttimeexits23->22,stops16->17,same-dayexits3->2;betabecomes.34605,annualintercept.98628%,HACt.27589. No statisticallydemonstratedalpha.4 Diagnostic10000path21sessionPnLfull187.22fundP5/median/P95=-6.54013/+1.19048/+9.02180USD;41.19%lossprobability;annualreturnmedian8.04715%/P95DD13.18197%. DirectmonthlywealthKellytest10.45232 beforehalving/capsispositivebutunreliable;live0foruncertainty/data/timing.5 Eightadapterauditbacktests+eightunchangedcontinuouscontrolobservationssaved;rawvintagesretained. Conclusionmethodneedsprice-eligibilityreconciliationandprospectiveexecutionvalidation,notparameterretuning. Diagnosticimprovementdoesnotturnrepairintoindependentout-of-sampleevidence. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/audit/results.json,inference.json,sizing.json. Monitor274next08UTC.

Premises:1 RawvendorSPYFeb2 2026alladjusted O685.90 H693.21 L68.64 C691.70 gives90.2949%rangewith+.4969%closereturn;rawdailyL69.005confirmstheproblemisnotonlyadjustment.2 ExactdateSIP64x15min extendedsessionminimum681.94raw vsdailylow69.005;IEXadjusteddailylow685.77. ThesedefinitionsarenotidenticalandIEXisnotfullmarket,butnointraday68printrecovered.3 Feb2badlowaffectsentry-daybarrierand20dayATRintoMarch; rawMarch2stopdistance79.206.4 InternalOHLCorderchecksandeverydailyvectorbtmatch(max7.28e-12units)verifyarithmetic,notpricetruth. Conclusionoverride2673/2674/2680: original64cellsremainrecordedrawvendorresults,NOTacceptededgeorcalibratedexitodds. Continuousmonthlycloseonlycomparisonsarenotmechanicallychangedbythislow. Diagnostic2249replacesonlyFeb2lowwith678.301862 (=681.94*691.70/695.41) usingmatchedadjustmentfactor;conservativeextendedsessionproxy,NOTauthoritativedailycorrection,freshholdoutorpermissiontopromote. GLD2017low110.03alsovisible15min,samefeednotindependentvalidation. Grossoutlierscreenacross13435rowsflagsoneat20%threshold;smallerbadprintsremainpossible. Noliveorder. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/bar_audit.json,audit/change.json; observations24984/24990/24991.

Premises:1 FixedprimarySPYstressadaptertrain2019-22 +5.5575%,holdout2023-Aug26 +32.3755%;48/44trades.2 Rawtrade mean0.62035%/0.84966%;10000 three-month moving-block mean95%CI[-.59212,1.80894]/[-.20030,1.78505]%. Capital-weightedfundmonthlyCI[-.39509,.64125]/[-.20727,1.52007]%.3 DailySPYOLS/HAC5 adapterannualintercept training-.90499%(t-.27775),holdout+.21390%(t.05951),holdoutbeta.36583. These are descriptivezero-yieldcash regressions,notoriginalexcess-factoralpha.4 Continuousmonthlymanagedstressholdout72.7201%/DD12.6491%/Sharpe1.33907,constant89.0037%/DD16.3501%/Sharpe1.41453;managed-minusconstantmean-.20681pp/month,3monthblockCI[-.53573,.08946]. Lessdrawdown comeswithlessexposure; no demonstratedincrementalreturnpremium.5 Externalstressadapter train/test EFA-19.2499/+4.2771,EEM-24.7622/+12.8840,TLT-16.3080/-14.8836,GLD+8.5946/+37.2622%;noGLDpromotion. Conclusionprimaryisprospectivewatch,notliveadoption;neithernegativeuniversalvolatilityclaimnorpositivealphaclaim. Historyreusedelsewhere,3monthbootstrapmisseslongregimes,64cellsarenot64independentconfirmations. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json,inference.json; fixed2230.

Frozen2177 applies five separately normalized lag1..5 negative cross-sectional-return weights to nine ETFs and averages them. Individual overlays are long1/short1; offsets make aggregate gross<2, correcting shorthand in2177, with no renormalization. Cash-only control clips aggregate negatives and normalizes positives to1. Next-open returns use weights known previousclose; same-close reference is explicitly non-executable. Findings: long-short nextopen holdout gross+3.38%, mean0.381bp/day; one-way turnover break-even0.6897bp, versus6bp baseline yielding−35.60% and16bp−70.75%. Training gross+22.55%,6bp−18.91%,break-even3.164bp. Long-only baseline holdout+20.48% but stress−51.74%; this positive baseline retains marketrisk and doesnotvalidate short-termselection. Highvol condition doesnot rescue holdout: long-short nextopen6bp mean−4.61bp/day, longonly−5.29. These are identification calculations with linear turnover costs, no borrow/financing/terminal-liquidation charge and no actual short order; do not rank as executable backtests. They are not the weekly ATR/3R portfolio, which separately reconciles with vectorbt. Dailyindustry results neednotreplicate monthlywithin-stockresults. All18 descriptivecells recorded; no parameter promoted. Source research/diagnostic.py/json and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; methodological primary https://www.nber.org/papers/w17653 .

Premises:1 All20 weekly costed cells reconcile to vectorbt; holdout2021–Sep10 2026 with full-current-week excluded, historical window not globally untouched.2 Primary baseline holdout +34.9556%, CAGR5.43259%, market beta0.453798 and annual simple OLS intercept−0.051691%, HAC5 t−0.00823; this is not evidence of alpha. Stress beta0.453772, annual intercept−8.00789%, t−1.27233. Fixed-beta OLS cannot eliminate all conditional exposures.3 On the same220 training weekly opportunities, time-only loser mean0.038393% vs equal9 basket0.192879%, selection delta−0.154486pp (month-cluster5000 CI[−0.392151,+0.073100]). On255 holdout weeks loser0.128452% vs equal9 0.172813% vs SPY0.212909%; delta−0.044361pp CI[−0.305723,+0.216633]. Costs identical6bp/side; no claim significant negative delta, just absent demonstrated incremental selection.4 Full-window uncosted SPY buyhold +103.0918% training/+121.2061% holdout, equal9 +82.8131/+113.6551%; these have different exposure and cannot substitute for matched control. Conclusion: positive baseline total is compatible with equity exposure; signal-selection evidence fails. Counterexample: nonlinear crash recovery might escape fixed beta; pre-frozen highvol model still stressed−7.2856% holdout,N41,CIcross0. Uncertainty, nine-sector scope and changing index composition prevent universal anti-reversal claim. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/results.json,inference.json and matched_train/test.csv.

Premises:1 Frozen252daystress holdout190trades,38.4211%wins,averagewin8.2380%/loss3.4970%,mean1.01171%,monthclusterCI[-.04849,2.13027]%; training48mean-.51159% andhalfKelly0.2 Holdout1933dailyreturns OLS vsalignedSPY beta0.41960102253097215,correlation0.6300643543775979,dailyintercept0.000012204135180099584; annualsimpleintercept0.3075442065385095% isdescriptive, noHACsignificance/causalalpha claim. Timestampstrings normalizedtoUTC beforejoin; invalidzeroSPYearlierdiscarded.3 Recent60day XLE/XLKcorr-.253247,XLK/XLI.542399; correlationcanchange undergapstress.4 OwnledgerN3win33.33%,mean-.860974%,avgwin7.93994/avgloss5.26143%,realized-$1.04605. Alloperatorliquidations, no stopped/targetedtrade orarrivalquote; cannotestimateplannedhorizonedges,stopprobabilityorexecutionslippagefromthatrecord. Conclusion livehalfKelly0fromprimarytraining; holdoutplugin6.1405%risk isnotlicensedconfidence orvenuesizing. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; query_trades fundquant Sep1102UTC; research/inference.json; analyses2403–10.

Premises:1 Exchangecurrentroster13176testissuesremoved; SIPsnapshot132batches403. HistoricalSIP/allSep8–10recovery12704symbols,12128currenttwo-barrows;384format-excludedpreferred/warrants,88othermissing and576insufficient/stale rows. Allrecoverybatches200; cannot claim everyUSlistingfullycovered.2 Price>=5/daydollarvolume>=10m/nonETF leaves2442; allhistoricalrequestscompleted,2351have>=253bars;91insufficient. Full2351rank/vol/ADVmetrics archived89observations, seven significantdigits, fullprecisionCSV retained. TopAXTI2326.97%,SNDK1702.65%,WOLF1556.04%12-1momentum; dailyleadersTNON117.21/DBGI81.07/PCLA31.00% notsamefactor.3 Overseas20instrumentpanel in9markets,16stocks4indices; localcurrencyhistoriesSep9orSep10, notexhaustiveforeignlistingcensus. ASML/HSBC/MUFGtopstocks; crosscalendar,FX,dividendandvenuegaps.4 Crypto25pairs23sufficient histories,allnegative12-1scores; PAXG211/MKR36rows failhistory. Stablecoinsnotriskmomentum. Counterexample current-survivor winners inflatehistoricalstocktest, so independentfixedsectorfamilyused. Conclusion broad discovery achievedwithnamedcoveragegaps, nostock-specificliveedge. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ .

Premises: 1 Frozen200daydailycross/2ATRstop/6ATRtarget adapter, ninefixed equalcapital ETF sleeves, stress1bpfee+15bpslippage/side, dailyOHLC proxy. 2 Training2016Dec29–2022 N228,p26.7544%,meanwin3.59161%,meanloss1.63334%,mean-0.235438%/trade; halfKelly riskfraction max(0,.5*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0. 3 Heldout2023–Sep10 2026 N162,p24.6914%,W5.41611%,L1.43555%,mean+0.256218%; resample entry-month clusters10000 seed9110000:95%CI[-.382200,.949164]% on39clusters; trainingCI[-.613839,.164982]%62clusters. Holdout binary-payoff halfKelly would be.0236533 riskfraction, but using it to override failedtraining would select after inspection; live0. Strongestcounterargument emerging equitytrend regime: holds can paytails despite lowwinrate, but independence/uncertainty unresolved. Valid arithmetic; soundness limited by crossasset/serialdependence beyond entrymonth and postpublicationhistory, data/execution proxy. Holdout median4sessions,113trend/timeexits,27targets,22stops; worsttrade-6.22562%,95thpercentile9.29716%, not alltrades realize nominal3R. Recent60sessioncorrelations SPY/IWM .733317,EFA/EEM .719261,TLT/IEF .887219,SPY/GLD .318342 warn relatedbets. No estimate from three operator-liquidated live trades used as natural-exit odds. Sources research/inference.py,json and immutable rawpanels; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf .

Premises:1. Fresh fundledger3closed operatorliquidations,0active/pending/closing; censoring precludes stop/target odds and execution-slippage inference.2. Saved2284/2208/2209 costedgap holdoutN2151 return-26.212876%,DD27.351241%,win43.979544398%,mean monthlyclusterCI[-.165928,-.052452]%,stressreturn-56.878654%; not rerun.3.Python p=.43979544398,W=.617581664%,L=.682768517% yields mean-.1108804318176%,halfKelly=max(0,.5*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0. Conclusion cash187.22; positioncap212.7475 and normalaccount risk25.5297 do not force use. Validity arithmetic correct conditional on empiricalpayoffs; soundness constrained by saved vendorhistory/costmodel/selection. Regimechange is counterexample but requires independentcosted evidence. No newMonteCarlo or simulatedexitodds claimed: negativeexpectancyalreadyfailsgate. Sources22967 and saved2284; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Premises:1.FreshQuantledger has3operator-liquidatedclosedtrades,zeroactive; intended4–6weekoutcomes censored, no calibrated stop/target or slippage distribution.2.Saved2269/2208/2209 gaprule costedholdoutN2151 return-26.212876%,DD27.351241%,win43.979544398%,72monthlyclustermeanCI[-.165928,-.052452]%,stress-56.878654%. Reuse, not newbacktest.3.Python recomputes p=.43979544398,W=.617581664%,L=.682768517%,mean-.1108804318176%,halfKelly=max(0,.5*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0. Conclusionzeroentry. Valid conditionalarithmetic; soundness limited to savedvendorhistory,costs,selection. Counterexample newregime couldchangeedge, but oneintradayrally isnotindependenttest. No newMonteCarlo probabilities claimed; empiricalnegativeedge alreadyfailsentry. Source obs22897; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Premises:1.Freshledger has3 closed trades, all operator liquidations, and0open/pending/closing. They censor intended4–6week outcomes, so cannot estimate intended stop/target probabilities or execution slippage.2.Saved2255/2208/2209 costed gap holdoutN2151 return-26.212876%,DD27.351241%,winrate43.979544398%,72monthlyclusters meanCI[-.165928,-.052452]%,stressedreturn-56.878654%. Reused evidence, not a rerun/newsample.3.Python recomputation p=.43979544398,W=.617581664%,L=.682768517% yields-.1108804318176%mean; halfKelly=max(0,.5*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0. Conclusion no entry under currenthalfKelly even though oldernotes usedquarterKelly. Validity correct conditional on imported outcomes; soundness limited by vendorhistory/cost assumptions and selection. Counterexample sustainednewregime might reverseexpectancy, but intradayrally/onepaperwin cannot independently demonstrate it. No newparameter sweep justified in tradingreview. Source obs22873; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; saved2255.

Premises:1.Freshquantledger0open/pending/closing,3closedoperatorliquidations; Pythonexactexit/entry return arithmetic matches prior sample. Interventions truncate4–6weektheses; cannot infer intendedstophit/targethit/slippage from these outcomes.2.Saved2222 p=.43979544398,W=.617581664%,L=.682768517% gives pW-(1-p)L=-.1108804318%/trade;max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0.3.Carry2208/2209OOSN2151return-26.212876%,DD27.351241%,stress-56.878654%,72monthlyclusters/meanCI[-.165928,-.052452]%. These are saved tests, no new backtest or independent sample. Latestneighbor2216recent+.03478% disappears atstress2217-2.18831%;alreadyinspectedneighborcannotrescuefixedrule. Conclusionzero sizebeforefundcap187.22/positioncap212.7475/riskcap8.5099. Assumedcostsnotmeasuredcurrentquotes; absentpositiveedge quoteswonotchangerejection. Source query_trades(fund=quant), obs22847; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf .

1.Freshfundledger has0open/pending/closing and3closedoperatorliquidations. Pythonexactexit/entry arithmetic givesp1/3,W7.93994%,L5.26143%,mean-.860974%;notunbiasedcalibrationofintended4–6weekPEADexits. Arrivalquotes/orderbook, naturalstop/targetoutcomes absent: cannotestimate slippage or planned exit odds. 2.Recomputed saved2222 p=.43979544398,W=.617581664%,L=.682768517% yields-.1108804318%pertrade, quarterKelly=max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0. Carry2208/2209 holdoutN2151,return-26.212876%,DD27.351241%,stress-56.878654%,72monthlyclusters,meanCI[-.165928,-.052452]%. No new backtest or independent sample. 3.Saved2221 five-session-block20,000paths/15-session horizon remainsconditional historical simulation; no rerun or revisedexitoddsclaimed. Zero allocation precedes187.22fundcap,212.7475positioncap and8.5099riskcap. New primary headlines cannot alter these payoff estimates without independent validation. Source query_trades(fund=quant); https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min . Obs22816.

1. Fresh query_trades fundquant yields3closedalloperatorliquidations. Python exit/entry-1 givesSNOW-5.39236448%,DELL7.93994131%,GTLB-5.13049905%;p1/3,W7.93994%,L5.26143%,mean-.860974%,clippedquarterKelly0. Censored intended4–6week exits andN3 cannot calibrate PEAD,slippage,stophitfrequency or merger completion. 2. Recompute saved2222 expectancy .43979544398*.617581664-(1-.43979544398)*.682768517=-.1108804318%pertrade. Saved2151holdout return-26.212876%,DD27.351241%,stress-56.878654%;72monthlyclusters,meanCI[-.165928,-.052452]%. This is arithmetic validation of journal figures,not new backtest or independent data. 3. Prior2211/2221 simulations remain historical conditional resamples,notnewlycalibrated future odds; no rerun needed for unchanged gate. AVAVN9CIcross0 remainsinconclusive; observed premarket news cannot supply pendingSep10close EAR. Allocation0 beforecashcap187.22,positioncap212.7475 orrisk8.5099 bind. Sources query_trades(fund=quant),saved2208/2209/2218/2221/2222; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

1. The fixed 2020–25 holdout has 2,151 trades across 887 signal dates and 72 monthly clusters. Mean net return is −0.110880% with 95% month-cluster bootstrap CI [−0.165928%, −0.052452%]; stressed mean −0.310459%, CI [−0.365700%, −0.251403%]. Resampling 20,000 times does not create new observations. 2. Pooled OLS on 11,968 ETF-days, with symbol effects, lagged RV20 and SMA200 status, gives gap coefficient −0.009604 percentage points per ADR, day-cluster SE 0.024997, t=−0.384, R²=0.005536. This is association, not evidence of causal order flow. 3. Strong counterargument: gross expectancy is slightly positive. Removing the constant assumed cost factor transforms the mean CI to [−0.046055%, +0.067557%], still spanning zero. All six portfolio holdout cells lose; QQQ's one-ADR neighbor gains 5.281% at base cost but loses 4.928% stressed (N=51). Conclusion: reject this adaptation, not all overnight/intraday anomalies. Historical eras were used in earlier fund research; current ETF survivors and assumed costs limit external validity. Source: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

P1 query_trades(fund=quant)08:02UTCreturned3closedonly;SNOW373.046->352.93,DELL474.336->511.998,GTLB51.418->48.78. Returns-5.39236448,+7.93994131,-5.13049905%;win1/3,avgwin7.93994131%,avgloss5.26143176%,mean-.86097407%. P2 Alloperatorliquidationsbefore4–6weekhorizons,notstrategyexits;entryarrivalquotes/feebreakdownunavailable,soexecution slippageandplannedstop/targetfrequencyunmeasured. P3 Currentcontextnoopen/queuedlots,187.22fundcash;prior06auditagrees. ConclusionpointquarterKellyclipped0;N3PEADlotoutcomescannotvalidatenewETFdayruleorjustifyrecoverysize. Original ledger sourcequery_trades(fund=quant);providerreturnmathnotcausalattribution.

P1 query_tradesfundquant06:20returns3closed,0open/pending;alloperatorliquidations. ReturnsSNOW-5.39236448%,DELL+7.93994131%,GTLB-5.13049905%;win33.333%,avgW7.939941%,avgL5.261432%,mean-.860974%. QuarterKelly0. P2 Holdsendedbefore4–6weekstatedhorizons,notnormalstop/targetoutcomes;cannotestimateplannedexitoddsororderslippagewithoutarrivalquotes. Conclusiondonotborrowthree-tradewinprobabilityforcalendarstrategyanddonotfitliquidationlossesaway. Source query_trades(fund=quant),actualvenueledger;returnsbeforeunobservedfeeattribution.

P1 Fixed8ETF2020–25holdout568tradesare71sharedmonths;meantradecorrelationcalendar.7851/swing.6067. P2 Calendarpooledmean+.314209%baseCI[-.175992,.778329]%,stress+.113780%CI[-.369358,.576591]%;matchedsessions10–13advantage+.607433%CI[-.082291,1.273104]%. P3 Swingmean-.064592%baseCI[-.368358,.234912]%;stress-.264263%CI[-.568733,.034432]%. 20000circular3monthblockresamplesseed91006,preserveETFdependence. P4 HAC5lagdailycloseTOMregressions1508sessions:SPYincrement+.004056%t.05297;EEM+.119247%t1.4421;all8CIsinclude0. StrongestcounterexampleEEMunmanagedbase+.638174%meanCI[.058044,1.252755]% butstressCI[-.144644,1.043289]%;unmanagedexitsnotvenueplan. Conclusion chronologicalholdoutdoesnotestablishrobusttradablecalendaralpha;historicaleraalreadyreusedacrossresearch. No refit/promoteprofitablecells. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf .

P1 Frozenbase693holdout2020–25events in72entrymonths; longnetreturn-4.5294% vs partner-4.59854%, onidenticaldates andcosts. P2 Meanpairedtrade difference+.00749122%, trade-returncorrelation.9941244. Monthclusterbootstrap10000 CI[-.0263933,.0421721]%; additional3consecutive-monthcircularblockCI[-.0246642,.0397757]%; neither supports positiveconditionaledge. P3 DailyOLS longportfolio onpartnercontrol: beta1.009636, annualizedintercept+.025113%, Newey-West10lagalpha t.12717. SPY-onlyregressionbeta.29198,alpha-5.2025%annual,t-2.2804; conditionalpartner isclosercontrolthanmarket. P4 Swingmean-.133650%,3monthblockCI[-.249193,-.015275]%;stress-.333183%,CI[-.448336,-.216552]%. Conclusion rejectdeployment; largecommonexposureandcosts dominate. SoundnesslimitedbycurrentETFsurvivors, historicalperiodreuse acrossresearch, assignedcosts/adjustmentproxy; this ischronologicalparameterholdout, notgenuinelyunseenprospectiveevidence. Counterexample: someindividualpairs/lowcostneighborcellspositive, but selectingthemnow contaminatesholdout. Need independentprospectivedifferenceCI>0 beforechange. Fullnumdiagnostics archived. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all .

P1 Fixed monthly mix earns39.6058% over2020–25 (5.7224%annualized), but72monthly observations have mean0.4861% and circular3monthblock95%CI[-0.0238,0.9909]%. P2 Regression on same-universe passive monthly returns gives beta0.4087, intercept0.1220%/month, HAC3SE0.1428%, t0.854. Reduced market exposure, not established independent alpha, plausibly explains drawdown improvement. This is not a full factor regression. P3 The mandatory swing adaptation's1239 trades have mean-0.14538%; IID95%CI[-0.22257,-0.06877]% becomes[-0.35574,0.07246]% when resampling72whole entry-month clusters. Related ETFs do not create1239independent trials. P4 Last63daily EWY/EWT correlation0.8139, EWY/SMH0.8858, EWT/SMH0.8915. Counterexample: broad long-horizon diversification can still improve risk-adjusted returns; do not claim alltrendfollowingfails. Soundness limited by currentETFsurvivors,reusedera,shorttraining,feeassumptions. Conclusion: preserve monthly research; reject current swing allocation. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; AQR methodology https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf .

P1 Fixed positive-EAR AVAV rule has9holdout trades, not enough to precisely estimate mean: daily five-session managed mean2.0060%, IID95%CI[-.8066,4.6100]%, year-clusterCI[-.1383,5.3758]% across5years. Fifteen-minute approximation mean2.52996%, CI[-.78743,5.51668]%; sharedsameevents, not independent corroboration. P2 All19complete holdout20session outcomes regress excessreturnonEAR: slope-.026049,stderr.288890,r=-.021864,p=.929206; lowpower,no fullfactoralpha. P3 Parent20return66.72% is concentrated in2025+91.67%; other years mixed. P4 Own3operator-liquidated trades p1/3,avgwin7.93994%,avgloss5.26143%,mean-.860974%,clippedquarterKelly0; censoring prevents intended-horizon inference. Strongcounterargument is positive cost-stressed daily/intraday point estimates; they deserve prospectivewatch, not forcedzero arithmetic. Quant's old IBSfailure doesnotdisproveAVAV. Soundness limited by single-name news selection, reusedmarketera,N9/5clusters,fees assumptions andunobservedtails; no claim rigorous confidence aftermultiplefamilysearch. Source observations18718/18740/18842/18844 and https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

P1 Original backtest1642 reread, not rerun: 2021–25 holdout252 after2016–20train, cashmean-.094356461%,p45.634920635%,W.490801991%,L.585547862%,return-21.631824%,DD25.206217%;stress-52.657075%. P2 Own three operator-liquidated trades recomputed p1/3,W7.939941%,L5.261432%,mean-.860974%; intended4–6week horizons censored, quote benchmarks absent so slippage/stop-hit odds unidentified. P3 max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)*L/W))=0 for both. Counterexample2026extensionN28+2.31% exists but stress-3.26% and cannot replace holdout. Conclusion zero allocation; no clinical-response proportion transferred to stock win rate. Observation18615; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and query_trades fund=quant.

P1 Original1642 reread: train2016–20,holdout2021–25,252trades,-21.631824%,DD25.206217%,p45.634921%,cashW.490802%/L.585548%,mean-.09435646%; stress-52.657075%. P2 Extension2026N28+2.31% loses3.26%stress and cannot replace holdout. P3 OwnN3 operatorliquidations p1/3,W7.93994%/L5.26143%,mean-.860974%; censoredhorizons andmissingquote benchmarks prevent exit/slippage inference. Both clippedquarterKelly0. No newbacktest/refit; keepallocation0. Counterexample recentpositiveextension is real but insufficient independent evidence. Source original1642 and query_trades fund=quant; observations18585.

P1 Original1642 re-read, not rerun: frozen2016–20train/2021–25holdout, IBS<=.2 nextopen1ADRstop/1.5ADRtargetorclose,fee1bp+slip5bpsside,vectorbt cashcurvereconciled. Holdout252,-21.631824%,DD25.206217%,p45.634921%,cashW.490801991%,L.585547862%,mean-.094356461%; stress-52.657075%. P2 2026extensionN28+2.31%base/-3.26%stress cannot replace holdout. P3 query_trades threeoperatorliquidations p1/3,W7.93994%,L5.26143%,mean-.860974%; censored4–6weektheses, no slippagebenchmarks. Both clippedquarterKelly=max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)*L/W))=0. Conclusion allocation0 valid under gate; soundness conditional on cost/data assumptions, not proof allquantfails. Clinicalresponses and intradaymoves not independentstockwinprobability. Need untouched matchedclinicalpanel/costedactualexits to change decision. Obs18550/18558; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and query_trades fund=quant.