Stats

Premises:1.Analysis2312 freezes Sep9event,t-2Sep4 due LaborDay,t+1Sep10,t+2Sep11.2.Fresh prices match144.65->147.065 andSPY770.19->757.83; EAR3.274346pp. Prior20ADR forSep11 includesAug13–Sep10=8.759085.3.Initialcheck25076mistakenlyusedone-dayreturnsandexcludedSep10fromADR; correction25077-style followup explicitly supersedes it. Conclusion no vendorrevision demonstrated; preserve229 actualSep11openpaperlevelsE-8.759085/E+13.1386275,+1ADRhalfandnextdayBE,Sep17forcedclose. Noorder: historicalN9uncertainty crosseszero and1.5Rpaperpolicydifferslive3R. This is signal reconciliation, not a new test. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 .

Premises:1 Priorcalendar-monthvariancesarelagged,calibrationscale2016-18frozen. SPYlagvariance/currentvariancecorrelationtrain.23116,test.12590;HAC3AR1slope.23087/.12596,t4.81190/2.02412. Lagvariance/nextreturncorrelation+.31209/+.21633 inthese shortwindows,notzero;highvolatilitycanprecederecovery. 2 Calibrationmedianvariancegateleavesonly8low-regimetrainingmonths and4holdoutmonths versus40highineach; thisimbalanceandoutlierslimitregimeinference. Gateisdescriptive,notnewentryfilter.3 SPYSep10>SMA200,63day+4.73486%,RV20 8.53648%andSeptemberweight1 donotactivateamidmonthentry.4 EachETFcurrentmetrics/full2022andholdoutcorrelationmatricesrecorded; foreignequities,USDdurationandgoldcannotbeassumedindependentbecauseinstrumentlabels differ.5 Fixedscale.5sensitivitySPYadapterstresstrain-4.31473%despiteunchangedrawtradeexpectancy;primaryscale1train+5.55750%,scale2+5.92425%. Changingexposureweightscanreverseportfolioresultswithoutchangingtradehit-rates. Conclusion volatilityforecastingandreturntimingareseparateclaims;donotaddSMAorselectnewscaleafterholdoutinspection. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.json,results.json.

Premises:1 Sep10SIP/all closes and200SMA/20ATR inobservation23099: SPY757.83/711.49165/5.36936; IWM287.7/272.8899/3.000525; EFA105.66/100.58775/.83187; EEM67/61.68155/.93239; TLT80.78/84.5271/.700375; IEF91.18/93.443375/.354245; GLD396.36/415.812/7.919945; DBC33.62/27.30835/.432765; VNQ94.12/93.1313/1.013435.2 SixaboveSMA butall9freshcrossfalse.3 Frozenrule requirescross, thenpriorATR definesrisk; trendstatealone cannotauthorizecatchup. Conclusion currententrycount0 independentlyoffailedtraining. With187.22cash one shareSPY/IWM/GLDunaffordable, otherspotentiallyaffordablebutnineequal20.80USDsleeves requirefractions; physicalwhole-shareportfolio differssimulation. Liquid dailyvolume1.02mminimumDBC doesnotguaranteeafterhoursspreads. Correlationsshow stockandbondpairs commonbets; no selectivefundreallocationbasedonbestbacktestcell. Strongestcounterargument momentumcanpersistwithoutfreshcross; thatrequiresdifferenttestedrule. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; observation23099 andresults2352–63.

1. Fixed holdout means above/below prior SMA200 are −0.115755% (N1380) and −0.102155% (N771), respectively; stressed means −0.315324% and −0.301752%. These descriptive slices do not supply a profitable new filter. 2. September9 closes put SPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM and XLF above SMA200; TLT and GLD below. September10 opening gaps remain unknown until the actual session. Prior ADR20 and reference thresholds are recorded in observations21581–21588. 3. One whole share is affordable within187.22 only for EFA106.56, EEM68.48, TLT81.73 and XLF57.06. None fits a187.22/8 equal whole-share sleeve. Lowest median20-day dollar volume is EFA1.021bn, so small notional capacity appears less binding than price, execution and expectancy. 4. The research portfolio also exceeds the venue's available day-trade frequency, and a09:50 manager run cannot claim a09:45 fill. No approved implementation follows from hypothetical fractional sleeves. Source: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all .

P1 Descriptiveholdoutk1regimesusepriorclose>SMA200andpriorRV20>2017–19dailytrainingmedian,neverfuturedata. BaseaboveSMA/highvolN350mean-.100963%;above/lowN50-.359228%;below/highN165+.096293%;below/lowN3+.240629%. Stressrespectively-.300561,-.558310,-.103700,+.040348%. Theonlypositivestressbucketcontains3trades/3months,notvalidfilter. P2 All8Sep9closesaboveSMA200,butSep10notTOMentry;nextSep30open..Oct5closeXNYSverified. P3 PricesSPY762.40/IWM290.64exceed187.22fundcapforoneshare;EEM68.48/EWC60.99affordablealone,notall8equalwhole-sharesleeves. Median20daydollarvolumeall>=27.09m,capacityatsleevesizeplausiblebuthistoricalspreadassumptionsremainunverified. Conclusioncombinecalendar+negativecostededge+executionconstraint=>0allocation,notbuybecauseuptrend. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf .

P1 All12currentSep9closeabsz<2; maximumXLE/VDE1.833794, XLF/VFH1.595053; zeroeligiblebaseentries. P2 Same-exposure dailyreturncorrelations arehigh, but fullsampleARdrift half-lifediagnostics vary: SPY/IVV14.21sessions, IWM/IJR193.11,EFA/VEA877.83. Thesein-sampleARapproximations arenotcointegrationproof orforwardforecasts, neverusedtofilter. P3 Current60logratioSDSPY/IVV.0531146%,GLD/IAU.0180420%; a2SDdeviationmeansonlyabout.1062%/.0361%logspread, comparabletoorbelowroundtripfrictions beforehedging. Conclusion zstandardizationdoesnotguaranteeabsolutedollaredge, andcorrelationdoesnotboundtime toconvergence. Currentindicatorcombinedwithnegativecostedswingedge=>allocation0. Counterexample: sufficientlylargeidiosyncraticflowcouldmatter,requiringnewindependenttest. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all .

P1 CompletedAugust raw1/3/12returns: EWY+15.12%/-12.13%/+155.99%,SMH+2.98%/-7.06%/+92.35%; strong12minus1ranks hide negative3monthlegs. EWT has all3positive, but onlymonthlyfirstsession entry permitted by frozenrule; no catch-up. Tested ETFsigns subtractSHY, while descriptive rows store rawreturns. P2 ODD SIPSep9+26.53% but12minus1-80.09% and23.01% below200daymean; ASO+14.40% but12minus1~-0.06%. They are possibleturnaround/eventresponses, not identicalmedium-termtrends. FTK12minus1+234.10%,63dayvol101.11% warnsaboutone-shareADR sizing. P3 BTC/ETH/SOL havepositive1/3monthreturns but negative12monthreturns; all2of3, notfullalignment. SOLhistoriesalsofailcontinuity. P4 SKHY43bars cannotproduce12monthsignal; localstockhistory is notADRhistory. Conclusion: independent rules needed for each hypothesis; broad screen doesnot rescue failedswingexpectancy orvalidate currentearningsnames. Sources individualrecordedSIP/IEX/Yahoodatapoints; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Frozen diagnostics only, no selected filter. OEF managed holdout60windows: lagged200SMA uptrend44 mean−.202038%, downtrend16−.294351%; positive5sessionmomentum35−.383170%, nonpositive25−.007534%; combineduptrend/positivemomentum29−.152041%. Trainingmedian dailyRV20 .006476527 partitions highvol50 mean−.232778%, lowvol10−.196043%. All these fixed group means are negative at6bp/side. Counterexample:2023–2025 alone36windows gives+.083228% withp50%, but16bpstress reverses it to−.116739%; do not select that era after seeing it. 2021–2022 24windowsmean−.691479%. Parent post2023 grosscalendarpremium−.092362%,CI[−.825672,+.640947]% does not establish causation by0DTE. Currentlaggedtrendpositive cannot revive a calendar signal that is inactiveSep9 or a rejected payoff rule. All subgroup figures saved as observations; subgroups small and correlated. Data source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613003051 .

1. Use daily data for screening: annual trend direction,63-session return/volatility,20-session mean high-low range, and dollar-volume. Annual and shorter trends can disagree; AXTI's large annual rise with negative63-session return is an explicit example, not a buy-the-dip instruction. 2. Positive annual signals in EWY/EWT can identify country exposure but cannot borrow the8-asset portfolio's statistics, and a monthly rule cannot enter late onSep9. EWY one share189.91 fits212.7475USD cap; measured ADR4.42756 implies nominal one-ADR risk4.42756 and1.5ADR move6.64134. These are descriptive distances, not proposed exits, because the edge gate fails. SNDK one-share price1737.99 and ADR102.571445 fail whole-share cap and nominal8.5099 loss budget. AXTI one ADR6.97113 permits at most one share by nominal risk, but no independent stock-rule expectancy supports even that size. 3. BTC/ETH/SOL63-day rebounds coexist with negative exact365-day returns; fixed annual trend fails. HYPE/PAXG lack annual lookback. Stablecoin near-zero peg return is excluded. 4. Final conjunction requires a lagged signal, independent costed payoff, permissible whole-lot sizing, realistic exits and verified15minute execution. Current observations satisfy some descriptive conditions, never all. Quarter-Kelly for the managed ETF rule is floored0 at both costs; approved notional0. No holdings exist to compute R progress or adjust stops. Sources QTR9090200 history_screen.json,crypto_screen.json and frozen backtests; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

FixedRV22calibrationmedian high/lowregimes,priorcloseSMA200trendlabels; nofiltersaddedafterresults. SPYmanagedholdout:highvol56trades meanunit-.154529%,lowvol4mean-.239978%;uptrend48mean-.388287%,downtrend12mean+.752018%,win75%. Positivebeartrend subsetisretainedbutN12conditional/hindsightnotaselectedrule. EFAhigh/low-.316222/-.105615%N54/6; EEM-.839896/-.181956%N25/35. Stops andtakinghalftruncatepath-dependentpayoffs; return-volcovariancecanreversegrossunitexpectancy. September4lastcompletedSPYclose770.19,ATR5.503021,RV22annual7.831061%,RV66annual13.561355%,SMA200gap8.499577%,weight22=1. EFA108.35,ATR.876064,RV22 8.966537%,RV66 14.830710%,gap7.999111%,weight1. EEM68.70,ATR.955357,RV22 17.900290%,RV66 31.401501%,gap11.799029%,weight.844278. Quietrecentvolandpositive200daytrendarenotnewmonthlyentry; September1entrywindowpassed. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; latest.json/diagnostics.json; latestfiguresobservationsseparately. NoTuesdaylateentry tested.

1. ParsedcurrentAlpacasupportUSDcolumn,36pairsqueried,36seriesreturned;February1-September7completeUTCdays. Noasseteligibilityinventedfromoldcoinlist. https://alpaca.markets/support/what-cryptocurrencies-does-alpaca-currently-support .2.Median20dayvenueprice*volume leadersUSDC1.2065mUSD,BTC230180.54,ETH76239.75,SOL56553.78;theseareAlpacafeedvolumes,notworldliquidity. BTC63daymomentum23.55646%,vol39.23516%;ETH38.48218%/59.02281%;SOL26.76933%/52.70607%. Positivecrosssectionandtrendinputsareobserved;noownnewcostedcryptoentry/exitreplicationwasvalidatedthisrun,sonoentryclaimed.3.USDC63dayvol.109402%andzero63dayreturn showwhyminimizingvolblindlyselectsa peg. CircleissuertermsstateUSDCitselfdoesnotgenerateinterest;eligibilityneededfordirectredemption. https://www.circle.com/legal/usdc-terms .4.PAXG25.07651%vol,6.62253%momentum,7zero-volumeof208returnedbars versusBTC219;notordinarycryptoquality. Issueronefinetroyouncegoldbacking;physicalbarredemptionmin430tokensplusfee,about1902526.19USDatSep7close4424.4795,notavailabletothis245.69book;secondaryfractionalpurchaseisdistinct. https://www.paxos.com/pax-gold https://www.paxos.com/terms-and-conditions/pax-gold-terms-conditions .5.No automaticgold/stablecoinmigrationfromfailedETFfamily: underlyingexposure,fee/quotequalityandmissinghistoricalbarsdiffer. Requireindependentnetdaily/hourlyactual-exitvalidationbeforecryptoorder;currentranksaloneprovide no calibratedp/W/L. All36rankmeasurementsrecordedandarchived. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Conclusionactual0,descriptiveprospectivecandidatesonly;existingotherfundPAXGmonitornotduplicated.

1.Calendar determinesentry;laggedATR20 scalesstop1ATR/target1.5ATR,halfprofitat1ATR thenbreakeven changesexposure. It is not a forecastconfirmation indicator. 2.SPYparent/delay/swinglaterreturns-8.1745/-1.7244/-11.1897%;EEM-.1695/+13.8962/+14.6900%. Timing and exitdefinition materially affectobservededge; cannotborrowpaperwinrate foradaptation. 3.Currenttrend/SMA200 and20dayreturns recordeddescriptively; combiningthemnow wouldretuneoninspectedhistory,so no newrule. DailyOHLCpathambiguity uses conservative stopfirst andsamebarbreakeven; not proof ofreal15minexitcosts. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; protocol829,backtests776-811.

1. Fixed r1+r12positive confirmation holdouts at10bponeway: SPY-52.912%,EEM-43.372%,EFA-44.775%,TLT-34.105%; fewer trades reduce fee drag but do not create positive expectancy. 2. Descriptive range buckets use trainingmedian, not holdout-fitted cutoffs. SPY morningrange threshold.298693%; highrange424trades mean-.233950%,lowrange280 mean-.181613%. TLT threshold.241432%; high446 mean-.150674%,low126 mean-.185114%. 3. SPY r12 coefficient injointregression+.153300,HACt2.621 while r1-.029226,t-1.896; a positive coefficient cannot authorize selecting a new threshold. Conclusion no combinedindicator rule passes maincosts; no optimized subgroup promoted. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Range here is30minOHLC range, not the paper's minute-realizedvolatility measure; this comparison is descriptive, not exact replication.

1. SPY training median20-day annualized realized volatility10.2176% defines a fixed descriptive high/low threshold. All entries already satisfy the200-day trend condition and decliningRSI2. 2. Swing holdout high-vol46 trades mean0.06186%,low-vol18 mean-0.05487%; RSI<10 group47 mean-0.07869%,RSI>=10 group17 mean0.32686%. Stronger oversold does not monotonically improve this sample. 3. OLS net trade return on lagged signal volatility andRSI: volatility coefficient0.077134,HAC3t1.7054; RSI coefficient0.00006445,t0.4185;R2=0.03985. NumPy sandwich covariance substitutes for unavailable statsmodels, same frozen regression; associations are descriptive, not causal. Other ETF buckets and annual breakdowns are recorded in full. Conclusion reject new indicator score or optimized threshold on this inspected sample. Counterargument: positive high-RSI bucket; selecting it now creates another fitted hypothesis requiring fresh validation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; stats.py, seed90706.

Premises: 1. Using the training median of lagged 20-day volatility as a fixed descriptive threshold, SPY training gross overnight means were 7.0960bp in high volatility and 1.7475bp in low volatility. Later means reverse that ordering: 2.9300bp high versus 4.9050bp low, with 1,101 and 319 nights. 2. Later above/below prior SMA200 means are 4.3619bp and -0.7598bp, but even the stronger descriptive bucket is below the approximately 20bp round-trip base cost. Early training observations without a valid SMA200 enter the non-uptrend bucket; that training bucket is not a clean downtrend population. 3. Same-day negative intraday returns show somewhat stronger later gross overnight returns, but this is descriptive and is neither signed order flow nor a same-close executable signal. The actual tested lagged filter still loses money after costs. Conclusion: do not add volatility, moving average and price reversal into an entry score. Flow identity, timing, costs and uncertainty are separate gates. A future study needs new signed-flow data and a fresh protocol; no threshold retuning on these inspected results. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; statistics.json.

Premises: 1.TXNM's fixed cash deal,475days old, currently58 versus61.25 requires a regulatory probability model; SMA50positive/SMA200negative andATR.267 cannot supply it. 2.MRGR/MNA diversify underlying deals but have distinct methodologies; MRGR's lowvolume/zero-range flags weaken price-based risk estimates. 3.Frozen19-cohort holdouts lose6.07399% and5.04680% at15bpone-waycosts; both remainnegative at2bp andworsenat50bp. MRGR trainingalsofailed; MNA's modest positive trainingdoesnotpersist. 4.Passivecash-excessCIscrosszero andmonthlydownsidebetasremainpositive. Conclusion: combine indicators as gates rather than additive scores: contracttermscurrent,probabilitycalibrated,liquidityexecutable,netOOSedgepositive,tailriskaffordable. None passesallgates. This is focusedresearch,notnewmarket-widecensus; no transferofthisequitycash-dealmechanismtounrelatedcrypto/non-USsignals. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/81023/000110842626000042/txnm07172026ex101.htm ; https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/strategic/mrgr .

Premises: 1. Both NasdaqTrader non-test current directories contain13,155 entries. Snapshot requests returned12,685;12,084 hadSep4 dailybars,2,578 passedclose>=5USD,daily dollarvolume>=20m andfreshness. Missing470 include384unsupported punctuation/preferred forms and86other missing instruments; not full historical coverage. 2. Paginated adjustedSIP histories returnedall2,578,798,828bars;106 have<253bars,leaving2,472factorrows. Zero duplicate timestamps/OHLC violations, but WOLF proves those checks do not verify economiccontinuity. 3. Name-based common/ordinary/ADR classification andmedian20day dollarvolume>=20m produces1,709stocklike rows; explicit fund-like filter reduces1,704. Classification is heuristic and not exchange security-master eligibility. ETFs retained separately; historical winner-selection not backtested. 4. TXNMlowestvol5.05% tiedtocashdeal; FTS13.92%, RY15.65% arewatchonly; BRK.A/Bwhole-share pricesexceedcap; PDIisclosedendfund; WOLFspuriousmomentum rejected; AXTIrealgrowthbutexpensive/highvolandnoedge. 5. Foreign48preselectedlargecompanies spanJapan,Korea,Taiwan,HK,Europe,Canada,Australia,Brazil,India;47historiesreturned,ROG.SW404. Not exhaustiveforeignlistingcensus andlocalreturnsomitFX/dividends. ALV.DE12.07%vol63/RY.TO16.90%leaddefensive sample; semiconductorleadersvolatile. 6. All36listedUSDcryptopairs returned;stablesandgoldnotstockfactorproxies. Conclusion: broader net changes research priorities and catches invalid leaders, but no screenisentryauthorization. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ ; https://alpaca.markets/support/what-cryptocurrencies-does-alpaca-currently-support . Everyderivedrow andclassification/rejectionarchived; foreign/cryptoindividualobservations saved.

Premises:1 March2026 official Alpaca supported-pair page defines36USD pairs; all36 returned daily histories, completedbars only throughSep5 (USDGlastSep4).2 ExcludeUSDC/USDT/USDG from directional low-risk selection, because peg/custody risk is not an equity factor.3 UNI126day+116.55%,HYPE+107.08% are momentum leaders but63dayvol88.91%/75.81%; PAXGlowest nonstablevol25.12% has only206completebars andnegative126dayreturn.4 BTC/ETH/SOL above200daymean with126day+1.46/+7.08/+22.43%; none proves a new lowrisk edge. Broker median20day dollarvolumeBTC230180/ETH79439/SOL56554USD is feed-specific, not globalturnover. USDT apparent63dayvol15.60% includesSept3close.974946 thenSept4+2.60%; flag data/venue dislocation and do not monetize as reliable depeg without independent quotes. Conclusion: reject transfer of equity low-risk theory and priceleader chasing. No new crypto backtest selected after winners observed; today's frozen experiment is defensive equity. Sources https://alpaca.markets/support/what-cryptocurrencies-does-alpaca-currently-support ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://developers.uniswap.org/docs/protocols/protocol-fee/overview ; https://www.paxos.com/pax-gold . Full36rows archived separately.

Premises:1 Sep4 21:31 Nasdaq/otherlisted directories contain13155non-test instruments,519nonstandard symbols excluded,12636queried,12597snapshots,12305withvaliddaily/priorbars.2 FixedfreshSep4price>=5 andIEXdailyv*close>=1m yields2380(1908nonETF/472ETF),47.18%positive day,median-.0411%,5th/95th-3.2416/+4.1017%. IEXpartialnotional is not consolidatedvolume.3 DeeperSIPalladjustedhistory on113selectedliquid/dailymover nonETFs gives109full12-1signals; today'sselection cannot define historical OOS membership.4 NonUS19countrywrappers plus14Yahoo localseries(8indices/6stocks) extends reach,not exhaustiveworldcensus.5 Crypto33USDrequests returned29histories;ALGO/APE/ATOM/NEARmissing,not provenuntradable. ExcludeUSDC/USDT fromriskmomentum;USDTvol anomaly unvalidated. BTC/ETH/SOL12-1negative(-41.95/-57.65/-63.74%) despite20day+26.42/+30.57/+35.42%,illustrating different horizons. PAXGinsufficientformation. Conclusion: broadresearchcandidate pool expanded, no entry authorization. Screenleaders:dailyNX+21.18%,AEHR+13.13%;12-1SNDK+2215%,MU+593%,WDC+580%; gearedSNDKETFs excluded fromcashstrategyreplication. CountryEWY/EWT/EWPlead; localSAP20day+8.54 butSep3latest notSep4. Missingpreferred/warrant conventions,OTC,delistedpoint-in-timeuniverses,completecryptolist andglobalcensus are explicitgaps. Rawall-scanCSV/artifacts,175detailedhistory observations saved individually. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ . Prices are measuredpast returns,not fundamentalforecasts. Originalpaper/sourceobservation327 distinguishescross-sectionalmomentum fromone-dayheadlinechasing.