Runway

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816 backtests, newest first
QR290706 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationTLT2026-09-07 06:20
A news scan found the headline 'QR290706 TLT R2 swing train: frozen venue-exit proxy'. The report discusses Protocol 596/598, which involves a declining RSI2, a technical indicator, over three days, starting below 65 and closing above the SMA200, a moving average. The protocol includes rules such as a next-open entry, no overlapping lot, and specific stop and target prices. The report also mentions a train, which refers to a training period, from 2016 to 2020, a holdout period from 2021 to 2025, and a recent period from 2026 through September 4. The vectorbt fee, a type of trading fee, is set at 5 basis points, or 0.05%, per side, with slippage, a difference between expected and actual trade prices, also at 5 basis points. The report includes statistics such as a mean return of 0.096934%, a worst return of -1.426733%, and a median holding period of 2.0729 calendar days. The conclusion is to reject adoption of the strategy, as no ETF, or exchange-traded fund, passes both the main training and holdout periods. The report cites sources including https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361.
return2.85
drawdown4.53
win rate41.94
sample31
average win1.23
average loss0.72
mean payoff0.1
quarter Kelly0.02
median days2.07
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 06:20
A news scan found the headline 'QR290706 EEM R2 swing recent: frozen venue-exit proxy'. The report is about an automated trading fund manager's notes. The manager uses a protocol called Protocol596/598, which is a set of rules to buy and sell stocks. This protocol uses a measure called RSI2, which is a way to gauge the speed and change of stock prices, and SMA200, which is the average stock price over 200 days. The protocol also uses a measure called ATR20, which is the average true range of a stock's price over 20 days. The manager decided to enter the market at the next open, with a stop loss of one ATR and a target of 1.5 ATR. The manager also set a rule to exit the trade if the RSI is greater than 75 or after 10 sessions. The manager tested this protocol using historical data from 2016 to 2026, and specifically from September 4, 2026. The test results showed that the protocol had a mean return of 0.782386%, a worst return of -0.953983%, and a median holding period of 0.8802 calendar days. The manager concluded that the protocol should not be adopted because no ETF, or exchange-traded fund, passed both the main training and holdout tests. The manager also noted that historical data may not accurately reflect real-world trading conditions. The manager used data from two sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361.
return3.09
drawdown3.93
win rate50
sample4
average win2.47
average loss0.9
mean payoff0.78
quarter Kelly0.08
median days0.88
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706 EEM R2
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 06:20
A news scan found the following trading fund notes. The fund manager used a protocol called Protocol596/598, which is a set of rules to buy and sell stocks. This protocol looks for a declining RSI2, a type of market momentum measure, over three days, starting below 65 and closing above the SMA200, a 200-day moving average. The next open is used as the entry point, with no overlapping lots, meaning no buying or selling the same stock at the same time. The manager also used a gate, which is a condition that must be met before a trade can occur, in this case, 1.5ATR20, a measure of stock volatility, is less than or equal to 2ADR20, another measure of volatility. The initial stop, which is the price at which a trade is automatically closed, is set at one ATR, and the target price is set at 1.5ATR, with a percentage trail, meaning the stop price moves as the stock price moves. The trade is closed at the next open if the RSI is greater than 75 or after a 10-session timeout. The manager also used a holdout, which is a period of time used to test the protocol, from 2021 to 2025, and recent data from 2026 through September 4. The manager used a long-only vectorbt fee, which is a type of fee that is charged for each trade, of 5 basis points, and slippage, which is the difference between the expected and actual price of a trade, of 5 basis points per side. The manager also used raw 15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth, which is a measure of the fund's performance, and drawdown marks, which are the lowest points in the fund's performance, were observed at intraday prices. The results were a mean return of -0.229751%, a worst return of -2.038371%, and a median holding period of 1.2292 calendar days. The conclusion was to reject the adoption of this protocol because no ETF, or exchange-traded fund, passed both the main training and holdout periods. The sources of the data were https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361.
return-5.29
drawdown10.75
win rate30.43
sample23
average win1.32
average loss0.91
mean payoff-0.23
quarter Kelly0
median days1.23
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 06:20
A news scan found the text of a trading fund manager's notes. The notes describe a trading protocol called Protocol596/598. This protocol uses a declining RSI2, which is a measure of how quickly a stock's price is changing, over three days. The stock must start below 65 and close above its SMA200, which is the average price of the stock over 200 days. The next day, the fund will enter the trade with no overlapping lots. The initial stop, which is the price at which the fund will sell the stock if it loses value, is set at one ATR, or average true range, which is a measure of how volatile a stock is. The target price is set at 1.5 ATR. The fund will also use a percentage trail, which means the stop will move up as the stock price increases. The trade will be closed if the RSI is greater than 75 or after 10 sessions. The fund used a train, which is a set of data used to test a trading strategy, from 2016 to 2020, and a holdout, which is a set of data used to validate a trading strategy, from 2021 to 2025. The fund also used recent data from 2026 through September 4. The fund's vectorbt fee, which is a fee charged by the fund, is 5 basis points, or 0.05%, per side, and the slippage, which is the difference between the expected price of a trade and the actual price, is also 5 basis points per side. The fund used raw 15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth, which is a measure of the fund's performance. The fund's drawdown, which is the peak-to-trough decline in the fund's value, was marked by observed intraday prices. The results were: N24, mean -0.225024%, worst -1.825486%, median 0.9948 calendar days. The conclusion is to reject adoption of the strategy because no ETF, or exchange-traded fund, passed both the main training and holdout. The historical proxies used by the fund omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash, and whole-share rounding. The ETFs SPY and IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. The periods were inspected under other rules, so the chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts, but matched diagnostics separate that effect. The sources of the data are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361.
return-5.44
drawdown7.39
win rate33.33
sample24
average win1.34
average loss1.01
mean payoff-0.23
quarter Kelly0
median days0.99
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 06:20
A news scan found the headline about a trading strategy. The strategy, called Protocol 596/598, uses a declining RSI2, which is a measure of how fast the price of a stock is changing, over three days. It starts when the RSI2 is below 65 and the stock's close price is above its SMA200, which is the average price of the stock over 200 days. The strategy enters the market at the next open, with no overlapping lots, meaning it does not buy or sell the same stock at the same time. The initial stop, which is the price at which the strategy sells the stock to limit losses, is set at one ATR, or average true range, which is a measure of how much the stock's price typically moves. The target price, at which the strategy sells the stock for a profit, is set at 1.5 ATR. The strategy also uses a percentage trail, which means the stop price moves up as the stock's price increases. The strategy exits the market when the RSI2 is greater than 75 or after 10 sessions, which are periods of trading. The strategy was trained on data from 2016 to 2020 and tested on data from 2021 to 2025, and it was applied to recent data from 2026 through September 4. The results show that the strategy had a mean return of -0.783671%, a worst return of -1.579315%, and a median holding period of 0.8958 calendar days. The conclusion is to reject the adoption of this strategy because no ETF, or exchange-traded fund, passed both the main training and holdout tests. The strategy uses historical proxies, which are models of how the market has behaved in the past, but these proxies do not include executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash, and whole-share rounding, which can affect the results. The sources of the data are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361.
return-4.63
drawdown5.99
win rate16.67
sample6
average win0.98
average loss1.14
mean payoff-0.78
quarter Kelly0
median days0.9
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 06:20
A news scan found the following report: The Protocol 596/598 has a declining RSI2, which is a measure of how quickly a stock's price is changing, over three days, starting below 65 and close above the SMA200, which is the average price of a stock over 200 days. The next-open entry will be made without overlapping lots. The Gate is set at 1.5 ATR20, which is a measure of volatility, and is less than or equal to 2 ADR20. The initial stop will be set at one ATR, which is a measure of volatility, and the target will be set at 1.5 ATR. The position will be closed if the RSI is greater than 75 or after a 10-session timeout. The holdout period is from 2021 to 2025, and the recent period is from 2026 through September 4. The vectorbt fee is 5 basis points, which is a measure of the cost of trading, and the slippage is also 5 basis points. The results show a mean return of -0.415034%, a worst return of -2.522052%, and a median holding period of 1.2292 calendar days. The conclusion is to reject the adoption of this strategy because no ETF passes both the main training and holdout periods. The historical proxies used in this study do not account for executable quotes, real-time polling clock, exact dividend cash, and whole-share rounding. Currently, the SPY and IWM ETFs cannot be traded in whole shares. The study also notes that the periods inspected were under other rules, which affects the independence of the results. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts, but matched diagnostics separate that effect. The sources of the data are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361.
return-13.73
drawdown15.9
win rate31.43
sample35
average win1.05
average loss1.09
mean payoff-0.42
quarter Kelly0
median days1.23
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 06:20
A news scan found the text of a trading fund manager's notes. The notes discuss a trading strategy called Protocol 596/598, which involves a declining RSI2, or a measure of how quickly a stock's price is changing, over three days. The strategy requires the stock to start below 65 and close above its SMA200, which is the average price of the stock over 200 days. The next day, the strategy enters a trade with no overlapping lots, meaning it does not buy or sell the same stock at the same time. The strategy uses a gate of 1.5 ATR20, which is a measure of how volatile the stock is, and sets an initial stop, or the price at which the trade is automatically sold, at one ATR, and a percentage trail, which is a way of adjusting the stop price as the stock's price changes. The strategy also sets a target price at 1.5 ATR. The trade is closed when the RSI is greater than 75 or after 10 sessions. The notes also discuss a train, which is a set of data used to test the strategy, and a holdout, which is a set of data used to validate the results. The train data is from 2016 to 2020, and the holdout data is from 2021 to 2025. The strategy is tested on recent data from 2026 through September 4. The results show a mean return of -0.099752%, a worst return of -1.743545%, and a median holding period of 1.3594 calendar days. The conclusion is to reject the adoption of the strategy because no ETF, or exchange-traded fund, passes both the main training and holdout tests. The notes also mention that historical proxies, or models, omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash, and whole-share rounding, which are all important factors in trading. Additionally, the notes mention that the ETFs SPY and IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. The periods were inspected under other rules, so the chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts, and matched diagnostics separate that effect. The sources of the data are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361.
return-3.51
drawdown8
win rate44.12
sample34
average win0.91
average loss0.89
mean payoff-0.1
quarter Kelly0
median days1.36
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706 IWM R2
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationIWM2026-09-07 06:20
A news scan found the headline about a trading strategy. The strategy, called Protocol596/598, uses a declining RSI2, which is a measure of how quickly a stock's price is changing, over three days. It starts when the RSI2 is below 65 and the stock's close is above its SMA200, which is the average price of the stock over 200 days. The strategy enters a trade at the next open, with no overlapping lots, meaning it does not open multiple trades at the same time. The initial stop is set at one ATR, which is a measure of how volatile the stock is, and the target is set at 1.5 ATR. The strategy also uses a percentage trail, which means the stop moves as the stock's price moves. The trade is closed when the RSI2 is greater than 75 or after 10 sessions. The strategy was trained on data from 2016 to 2020 and tested on data from 2021 to 2025, and recent data from 2026 up to September 4 was also used. The strategy uses a long-only approach, meaning it only buys stocks, and it takes into account fees and slippage, which is the difference between the expected price of a trade and the actual price. The strategy was evaluated using raw 15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth, which takes into account the stock's price and the number of shares held. The drawdown, which is the maximum loss of the strategy, was marked at observed intraday prices. The results of the strategy were: N7, mean 0.628881%, worst -1.416834%, median 2.0313 calendar days. The conclusion is to reject the adoption of the strategy because no ETF, which is a type of investment fund, passes both the main training and holdout tests. The historical proxies used in the strategy omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash, and whole-share rounding, which are all important factors in evaluating a trading strategy. The ETFs SPY and IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. The periods used in the strategy were inspected under other rules, so the chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts, and matched diagnostics separate that effect. The sources of the data used in the strategy are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361.
return4.37
drawdown2.88
win rate57.14
sample7
average win2.04
average loss1.25
mean payoff0.63
quarter Kelly0.08
median days2.03
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationIWM2026-09-07 06:20
A news scan found the headline about a trading strategy. The strategy, called Protocol 596/598, uses a declining RSI2, which is a measure of how fast the price of a stock is changing, over three days. It starts when the RSI2 is below 65 and the stock closes above its SMA200, which is the average price of the stock over 200 days. The strategy enters a trade at the next open, with no overlapping lots, meaning it does not open multiple trades at the same time. The initial stop, which is the price at which the trade is automatically closed to limit losses, is set at one ATR, which is a measure of how volatile the stock is, and the target price is set at 1.5 ATR. The trade is closed when the RSI2 goes above 75 or after 10 sessions. The strategy was tested on data from 2016 to 2020, and then applied to data from 2021 to 2025, and from 2026 to September 4. The results showed a mean return of -0.096238%, a worst return of -4.188273%, and a median holding period of 1.1563 calendar days. The conclusion is to reject the adoption of this strategy because no ETF, which is a type of investment fund, passed both the main training and holdout tests. The historical data used to test the strategy did not include real-time quotes, dividend payments, or the effect of rounding shares to whole numbers. The ETFs SPY and IWM cannot currently be traded in whole shares. The data was also tested under other rules, which may have affected the results. The sources of the data are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361.
return-8.05
drawdown23.69
win rate36.11
sample72
average win2.29
average loss1.45
mean payoff-0.1
quarter Kelly0
median days1.16
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationIWM2026-09-07 06:20
A news scan found the report about the QR290706 IWM R2 swing train, which is a frozen venue-exit proxy. The report has three main points. Firstly, it discusses Protocol 596/598, which involves a declining RSI2, a type of momentum indicator, over three days, starting below 65 and close above SMA200, a moving average indicator. The next-open entry is considered with no overlapping lot, and the Gate is 1.5 ATR20, which is a measure of volatility, less than or equal to 2 ADR20. The initial stop is one ATR, and the target is 1.5 ATR, with a percentage trail and a 10-session timeout or when the RSI is greater than 75. Secondly, the report talks about the train, which includes data from 2016 to 2020 for training, 2021 to 2025 for holdout, and recent data up to September 4, 2026. The vectorbt fee is 5 basis points, and slippage is 5 basis points per side, with independent compounding. The report checks 15-minute close prices and adjusted-ratio wealth, and drawdown marks are observed intraday prices. Thirdly, the report provides statistics, including N59, mean 0.215674%, worst -2.023682%, and median 1.7813 calendar days. The conclusion is to reject adoption because no ETF passes both main training and holdout. The report also mentions that historical proxies omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash, and whole-share rounding, and that SPY/IWM cannot currently fit one whole share. The periods were inspected under other rules, so chronology does not establish pristine independence. Earlier exits permit re-entry and change cohort counts, and matched diagnostics separate that effect. The sources of the data are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361.
return-12.34
drawdown16.51
win rate32.2
sample59
average win1.32
average loss0.95
mean payoff-0.22
quarter Kelly0
median days1.78
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-07 06:20
A news scan found the headline 'QR290706 SPY R2 swing recent: frozen venue-exit proxy'. The report discusses Protocol596/598, which involves a declining RSI2, a measure of how quickly a stock's price is changing, over three days, starting below 65 and close above SMA200, a moving average of the stock's price over 200 days. The next-open entry is planned with no overlapping lot, meaning no simultaneous buy or sell orders for the same stock. The Gate1.5ATR20<=2ADR20 condition refers to a trading rule based on the average true range, a measure of price volatility, and the average daily range, a measure of daily price movement. The plan includes a one-ATR initial stop, a stop-loss order to limit potential losses, and a percentage trail, a type of stop-loss order that adjusts to the stock's price movement. The target is 1.5ATR, and the plan also includes a next-open RSI>75 or 10-session timeout, meaning the trade will be closed if the RSI2 exceeds 75 or if 10 trading sessions pass. The report also mentions a training period from 2016 to 2020, a holdout period from 2021 to 2025, and a recent period from 2026 through September 4. The vectorbt fee, a type of trading fee, is 5 basis points, or 0.05%, per side, and slippage, the difference between the expected and actual trade price, is also 5 basis points per side. The report analyzes 15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth, and drawdown marks, the peak-to-trough decline in the stock's price, are observed intraday prices. The results show a mean return of 0.150231%, a worst-case scenario of -1.506870%, and a median holding period of 1.1771 calendar days. The conclusion is to reject adoption of this strategy because no ETF, or exchange-traded fund, passes both the main training and holdout periods. The report cites two sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361.
return1.88
drawdown3.36
win rate46.15
sample13
average win1.38
average loss0.91
mean payoff0.15
quarter Kelly0.03
median days1.18
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-07 06:20
A news scan found the following text: 1. Protocol 596/598 has specific rules, including a declining RSI2, which is a measure of how quickly something is rising or falling, over three days, starting below 65 and close above SMA200, which is the average price over 200 days. The next-open entry, meaning the next time the market opens, will be made without overlapping lots, which are groups of shares. The initial stop, which is the price at which the trade will be automatically stopped, will be one ATR, or average true range, which is a measure of price volatility, and the target will be 1.5 ATR. The trade will also have a percentage trail, which is a type of stop that moves as the price moves, and will exit when the RSI is greater than 75 or after 10 sessions. 2. The holdout, which is a period of time used to test the strategy, is from 2021 to 2025, and the recent period is from 2026 through September 4. The strategy uses a long-only vectorbt fee, which is a type of fee charged by the trading platform, of 5 basis points, or 0.05%, and slippage, which is the difference between the expected price and the actual price, of 5 basis points per side. The strategy also reconciles, or matches, independent compounding, which is a type of interest calculation. Raw 15-minute close checks and adjusted-ratio wealth, which is a measure of the strategy's performance, are used, and drawdown marks, which are the lowest points of the strategy's performance, are observed intraday prices. 3. The results show that the strategy had a mean return of 0.029030%, a worst return of -1.868121%, and a median holding period of 1.0260 calendar days. The conclusion is to reject adoption of the strategy because no ETF, or exchange-traded fund, passes both the main training and holdout periods. Historical proxies, which are models used to estimate the strategy's performance, omit executable quotes, real polling clock, exact dividend cash, and whole-share rounding, which can affect the strategy's performance. The sources of the data are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361.
return1.45
drawdown11.43
win rate43.75
sample64
average win1.2
average loss0.88
mean payoff0.03
quarter Kelly0.01
median days1.03
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-07 06:20
A news scan found the text describing a trading strategy. The strategy, called Protocol 596/598, uses a declining RSI2, which is a measure of how fast the price of a stock is changing, over three days to decide when to buy. The stock must start below 65 and close above its SMA200, which is the average price over 200 days. The next day, the strategy will buy the stock, but only if it does not already own it. The strategy uses a stop, which is a price at which to sell a stock to limit losses, and a target price, which is the price at which to sell a stock to make a profit. The stop is set at one ATR, which is a measure of how much the price of a stock is moving, and the target price is set at 1.5 ATR. The strategy will sell the stock if its RSI2 is greater than 75 or if 10 sessions, which are periods of trading, pass. The strategy was tested on data from 2016 to 2020 and from 2021 to 2025, and it was also tested on recent data up to September 4, 2026. The test used a fee of 5 basis points, which is 0.05%, and slippage, which is the difference between the expected price of a trade and the actual price, of 5 basis points per trade. The test also used a method called vectorbt, which is a way of testing trading strategies, and it used a method called compounding, which is a way of calculating returns on investment. The test found that the strategy had a mean return of -0.257764%, a worst return of -2.403976%, and a median holding period of 1.0104 calendar days. The conclusion of the test was to reject the strategy because it did not work well on both the training data and the holdout data, which is data that is not used to train the strategy. The test also found that the strategy did not work well on ETFs, which are a type of investment fund, and that it did not work well on the stocks SPY and IWM because they cannot currently be bought in whole shares. The sources of the data used in the test are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361.
return-15.06
drawdown16.44
win rate33.87
sample62
average win0.91
average loss0.85
mean payoff-0.26
quarter Kelly0
median days1.01
one-way cost bp10
actual size0
QR290706 TLT
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationTLT2026-09-07 06:10
This is a description of a trading strategy for the TLT fund. The strategy is based on three premises. First, it uses a protocol that freezes prices before they are used, and it looks for a decline in the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which is a measure of how quickly a stock's price is changing, over three days, starting below 65, and the stock's closing price must be higher than its Simple Moving Average, or SMA, over 200 days. The strategy also looks for the RSI to be higher than 75 before entering or exiting a trade, with no overlap between trades. Second, the strategy uses a recent sample of data from 2016 to 2020 for training and from 2021 to 2025 for testing, with 2026 being the most recent period, and it does not use any parameters that are fitted to the data, but rather looks at the overall market period. Third, the strategy uses a cash long only approach, which means it only buys stocks and does not sell them short, and it uses a vectorbt 5 basis point fee plus 5 basis points for each trade, and it reconciles independent wealth, with daily close marked as DD, and adjusted prices that approximate cash distributions. The mean return is -0.4372989750850283% and the worst return is -2.205882735475273%. The conclusion is that this is only a baseline strategy and does not include stop or target or trail validation, and a profitable test period does not make up for earlier losses or justify entering a trade. The data comes from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and the original strategy is from https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361. No samples or parameters were selected to maximize profit, and all five ETFs were retained.
return-1.33
drawdown4.03
win rate33.33
sample3
average win0.91
average loss1.11
mean payoff-0.44
quarter Kelly0
median days3
actual size0
QR290706 TLT
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationTLT2026-09-07 06:10
The automated trading fund manager made the following premises: the protocol 596/598 was frozen before prices were considered, and the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, a measure of stock price movement, declined for 3 days starting below 65, with the close being greater than the Simple Moving Average, or SMA, of 200. The manager also considered a holdout chronological sample, where the years 2016-2020 were used for training, 2021-2025 were used for holdout, and 2026 was considered recent, with no parameters fitted, but the market period was previously inspected. The manager used an explicit cash long only vector with a 5 basis point fee and a 5 basis point slip each way, which reconciles independent wealth, with daily close marked and adjusted prices approximating cash distributions. The results showed a mean of -0.44454334934041495% and a worst of -5.272528748719929%. The conclusion is that this is only a baseline and does not validate stop, target, or trail, and a profitable holdout does not make up for a negative earlier period or justify entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the original strategy is from https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361. No sample or parameter was selected for profit, and all five ETFs were retained.
return-8.79
drawdown13.21
win rate55
sample20
average win0.68
average loss1.82
mean payoff-0.44
quarter Kelly0
median days7.5
actual size0
QR290706 TLT Strategy
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationTLT2026-09-07 06:10
A trading strategy for TLT has been set up with certain rules. First, the strategy looks at the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which measures how fast prices are changing, and the Simple Moving Average, or SMA, which is the average price over a certain time. The rules are: the RSI must be below 65 and the price must be higher than the SMA200, and then the strategy will buy or sell at the next open. The strategy will also sell when the RSI is higher than 75. The strategy was tested on data from 2016 to 2020, and the results from 2021 to 2025 were used to check the strategy. The strategy only buys and holds, and it uses a 5 basis point fee and a 5 basis point slip, which is a small cost for buying or selling. The daily close is marked and the prices are adjusted to account for cash distributions. The results show a mean return of 0.2645556325254861% and a worst loss of -2.30449711384908%. This is just a baseline test and does not include stop or target prices. The strategy was profitable in the test period, but this does not make up for losses in earlier periods. The data comes from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and the original strategy is from https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361. No changes were made to the strategy to make it more profitable, and all five ETFs were kept.
return8.27
drawdown7.08
win rate54.84
sample31
average win1.11
average loss0.76
mean payoff0.26
quarter Kelly0.06
median days7
actual size0
QR290706 EEM
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 06:10
The automated trading fund manager made notes about the EEM investment. The manager started with three premises. First, the manager used a protocol with rules 596 and 598, which were set before prices were considered, and looked at a measure called RSI2, which had declined for three days starting from below 65, and the close was higher than the SMA200, a moving average of 200 days. The manager then decided to enter or exit the investment at the next open, after the RSI went above 75, without any overlap. Second, the manager looked at recent samples from 2016 to 2020 for training and from 2021 to 2025 as a holdout, and from 2026 as a recent sample, without adjusting any parameters, but had previously inspected the market period. Third, the manager used a long-only strategy with a 5 basis point fee and a 5 basis point slip in each direction, which was reconciled with independent wealth, and marked daily closes as DD, with adjusted prices that approximated cash distributions. The results showed a mean of 1.7633368092934865% and a worst result of -0.9457374891720383%. The manager concluded that this was only a baseline and did not validate stop, target, or trail strategies, and that a profitable holdout period did not make up for earlier negative periods or justify entering the investment. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and the original strategy is from https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361. No samples or parameters were selected to maximize profit, and all five ETFs were retained.
return14.88
drawdown6.11
win rate75
sample8
average win2.54
average loss0.55
mean payoff1.76
quarter Kelly0.17
median days3.5
actual size0
QR290706 EEM
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 06:10
This report is based on certain premises. The first premise is that the Protocol 596/598 is frozen before prices are considered, and the Relative Strength Index (a measure of stock price movement) declines for 3 days starting below 65, with the close being greater than the Simple Moving Average (a trend line) of 200. The entry and exit points are determined by the next open after the Relative Strength Index is greater than 75, with no overlap. The second premise is that there is a holdout chronological sample, where the data from 2016 to 2020 is used for training, 2021 to 2025 is used for holdout, and 2026 is considered recent. No parameters are fitted, but the market period has been previously inspected. The third premise is that there is an explicit cash long only vector with a 5 basis point fee and a 5 basis point slip each way, which reconciles independent wealth. The daily close is marked and adjusted prices approximate cash distributions. The results show a mean of 0.01995432325801159% and a worst-case scenario of -6.621975820217618%. The conclusion is that this is only a baseline and does not validate stop, target, or trail. A profitable holdout does not make up for a negative earlier period or justify entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and the original strategy is from https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361. No sample or parameter was selected for profit, and all five ETFs were retained.
return-0.03
drawdown19.64
win rate60
sample35
average win1.21
average loss1.77
mean payoff0.02
quarter Kelly0
median days8
actual size0
QR290706 EEM
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEEM2026-09-07 06:10
A news scan found the headline about a trading strategy. Premises for this strategy are as follows: the protocol, which is a set of rules, was frozen before prices were considered, and it uses a measure called RSI2, or Relative Strength Index, which declines for 3 days starting below 65, and the close is greater than the SMA200, which is a moving average. The strategy also uses an open entry and exit after the RSI is greater than 75, with no overlap. The training sample is in chronological order, with the years 2016-2020 used for training and 2021-2025 used for holdout, and 2026 is recent. There are no fitted parameters, but the market period was previously inspected. The strategy uses a cash long only vector, which means it only buys, with a 5 basis point fee and a 5 basis point slip each way, and it reconciles independent wealth. Daily close is marked as DD, and adjusted prices approximate cash distributions. The results show a mean of 0.10842871778365562% and a worst of -5.963594231989811%. The conclusion is that this is only a baseline, and it does not validate stop, target, or trail. A profitable holdout does not repair a negative earlier period or justify entry. The source of this information is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the original source is https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361. No sample or parameter was selected for profit, and all five ETFs, including EEM, were retained.
return2.6
drawdown13.95
win rate71.43
sample28
average win0.96
average loss2.03
mean payoff0.11
quarter Kelly0.03
median days9
actual size0
QR290706 EFA
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 06:10
The automated trading fund manager made the following premises: the Protocol 596/598 was frozen before prices were considered, and the Relative Strength Index (a measure of stock price movement) 2 declines for 3 days starting below 65, with the close being greater than the Simple Moving Average (a stock price average) 200. The manager also considered the recent chronological sample, which includes data from 2016 to 2020 for training and 2021 to 2025 for holdout, and 2026 for recent data, with no parameters fitted, but the market period was previously inspected. The manager used an explicit cash long only vector with a 5 basis point fee and 5 basis point slip each way, which reconciles independent wealth, with daily close marked and adjusted prices approximating cash distributions. The results showed a mean of -0.4898687579872285% and a worst of -2.445854225070998%. The conclusion is that this is only a baseline and does not validate stop, target, or trail, and a profitable holdout does not repair a negative earlier period or justify entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and the original strategy is from https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361. No sample or parameter was selected for profit, and all five ETFs were retained.
return-2.47
drawdown7.69
win rate20
sample5
average win1.68
average loss1.03
mean payoff-0.49
quarter Kelly0
median days4
actual size0
QR290706 EFA
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 06:10
The following premises were used: the Protocol 596/598 was frozen before prices were considered, and the Relative Strength Index (a measure of stock price movement) 2 declines for 3 days starting below 65, with the close being greater than the Simple Moving Average (a stock price average) 200. The entry and exit points were determined by the following open after the Relative Strength Index was greater than 75, with no overlap. A chronological sample was used as a holdout, with the years 2016-2020 used for training and 2021-2025 used as a holdout, and 2026 considered recent. No parameters were fitted, but the market period was previously inspected. An explicit cash long only vector was used, with a 5 basis point fee and a 5 basis point slip each way, reconciling independent wealth. Daily close was marked to the decimal day, and adjusted prices approximated cash distributions. The results showed a mean of 0.07524363740623041% and a worst loss of -8.519103138748662%. The conclusion is that this is only a baseline, and does not validate stop, target, or trail strategies. A profitable holdout does not make up for a negative earlier period or justify entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the original strategy is from https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361. No samples or parameters were selected for profit, and all five ETFs were retained.
return1.87
drawdown22.35
win rate62.86
sample35
average win1.26
average loss1.94
mean payoff0.08
quarter Kelly0.01
median days7
actual size0
QR290706 EFA
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEFA2026-09-07 06:10
A trading plan for EFA has been made. It is based on three premises. First, the plan uses a method called Protocol 596/598, which is frozen before prices are considered, and it looks at something called the RSI2, which is a measure of how fast prices are changing, and it must have been declining for 3 days and be below 65, and the closing price must be higher than the SMA200, which is the average price over 200 days. The plan also looks at when to enter and exit the market after the RSI is higher than 75, with no overlap. Second, the plan uses a sample of data from 2016 to 2020 for training and from 2021 to 2025 for testing, with 2026 being the most recent data, and it does not use any parameters that are fitted to the data, but it does look at the market period beforehand. Third, the plan uses a long-only strategy, which means it only buys, and it uses a fee of 5 basis points and a slip of 5 basis points each way, and it reconciles the wealth independently and marks the daily close as DD, and it adjusts the prices to approximate the cash distributions. The results show a mean of -0.10215037465943766% and a worst result of -8.944736735083858%. The conclusion is that this is only a baseline and does not validate stop, target, or trail, and a profitable test period does not make up for a negative earlier period or justify entering the market. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and the original strategy is from https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361. No sample or parameter was selected to make a profit, and all five ETFs were kept.
return-4
drawdown13.57
win rate66.67
sample33
average win0.82
average loss1.94
mean payoff-0.1
quarter Kelly0
median days6
actual size0
QR290706 IWM
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationIWM2026-09-07 06:10
The automated trading fund manager made the following premises: the protocol 596/598 was frozen before prices were considered, and the Relative Strength Index (a measure of stock price movement) 2 declines for 3 days starting below 65, with the close price being greater than the Simple Moving Average (a measure of stock price trend) 200. The manager also considered the recent chronological sample, which includes data from 2016 to 2020 for training and 2021 to 2025 for holdout, and 2026 for recent data, with no fitted parameters but previously inspected market periods. The manager used an explicit cash long only vector with a 5 basis point fee and 5 basis point slip each way, which reconciles independent wealth, and daily close was marked as DD, with adjusted prices approximating cash distributions. The results showed a mean of 1.272982569226051% and a worst loss of -0.05446169379021981%. The conclusion is that this is a baseline only and does not include stop, target, or trail validation, and a profitable holdout period does not make up for a negative earlier period or justify entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and the original strategy is from https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361. No sample or parameter was selected for profit, and all five ETFs were retained.
return6.5
drawdown4.32
win rate80
sample5
average win1.6
average loss0.05
mean payoff1.27
quarter Kelly0.2
median days8
actual size0
QR290706 IWM
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationIWM2026-09-07 06:10
This report is based on premises that include a protocol with specific rules. The rules are: the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, a measure of how quickly a stock's price is changing, declines for 3 days starting below 65, and the stock's closing price is higher than its Simple Moving Average, or SMA, over 200 days. The report also includes a holdout, which is a sample of data set aside to test the protocol, from the years 2021 to 2025. The data is adjusted to account for cash distributions and fees. The results show a mean return of 0.9381751690784071% and a worst return of -6.804647419897636%. The conclusion is that the holdout period was profitable, but this does not make up for earlier losses or justify entering the market. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and the original strategy is from https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361. No samples or parameters were chosen to maximize profit, and all five ETFs were kept.
return41.68
drawdown12.47
win rate76.92
sample39
average win2.08
average loss2.86
mean payoff0.94
quarter Kelly0.11
median days7
actual size0
QR290706 IWM Strategy
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationIWM2026-09-07 06:10
This is a description of a trading strategy for the IWM fund. The strategy is based on three premises: first, certain rules are applied before prices are considered, including a decline in the RSI2 indicator for three days starting below 65, and the closing price being above the SMA200 indicator; second, the strategy is tested on a sample of data from 2016 to 2020, with a holdout period from 2021 to 2025, and a recent period in 2026; third, the strategy uses a cash long only approach with a 5 basis point fee and a 5 basis point slip each way. The strategy was tested on 39 samples, with a mean return of -0.6433249944791336% and a worst return of -30.15412515129472%. The conclusion is that this is only a baseline strategy and does not include stop, target, or trail validation. The strategy was profitable in the holdout period, but this does not make up for negative returns in earlier periods or justify entering the trade. The data comes from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and is based on an article from https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361. No samples or parameters were selected to maximize profit, and all five ETFs were retained.
return-27.02
drawdown43.08
win rate64.1
sample39
average win1.17
average loss3.88
mean payoff-0.64
quarter Kelly0
median days7
actual size0
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