Runway

Stats

61 technical, newest first
Trading Refresh
TechnicalrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-06 13:53
A trading fund manager reviewed the market at 13:52. They looked at daily data from July 1 to September 5, excluding partial data from September 6, and found 67 observations for each item except USDG21, which ended on September 4 and did not have a 50-day Simple Moving Average, a calculation of the average price of a stock over 50 days, available for USDG. The prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana were lower than their previous 20-day highs, with Bitcoin at 79,841.951, less than 81,269.4915, Ethereum at 2,479.918, less than 2,515.933, and Solana at 103.165, less than 109.15. The three-day returns were 3.271%, 3.681%, and 2.728%, which means there was no pullback of more than 2%. The trend based on the 50-day Simple Moving Average was true, but there were issues with the way the data was aggregated, which is a process of combining data, and this was only for diagnostic purposes. Some cryptocurrencies, including UNI, LTC, and LINK, had breakouts, but these were under rules that had been previously rejected. The manager did not select any new items for analysis. They also looked at funding forecasts from OKX at 13:52, which predicted changes in the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, with a funding rate, which is a fee paid by traders, of +0.05167% for Bitcoin, +0.382579% for Ethereum, and -0.082712% for Solana. The change in the forecast for Solana was not due to a completed negative settlement, an extreme event, or an independent validation of the payoff. The manager did not make any new adjustments to the clock or open interest, which is the number of contracts that have not been settled. They also did not accept any new strategies or retune existing ones, which means they did not make any changes to the existing plans. As a result, there were no new entries. The price of Solana was 106.635, which is higher than 103.165, indicating momentum, but it did not establish a breakout at 109.15 or repair the negative holdout, which is a period of time when the strategy did not perform well. The manager's conclusion was that there were no eligible entries, and the observations from 7324 to 7347 retained all measured figures.
BTC completed breakout0
ETH completed breakout0
SOL completed breakout0
BTC three day pct3.27
ETH three day pct3.68
SOL three day pct2.73
BTC funding forecast bp0.01
ETH funding forecast bp0.38
SOL funding forecast bp-0.08
eligible entries0
Venue Screen
TechnicalrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, USDC/USD, USDG/USD, XRP/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, PAXG/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-06 08:07
A seven-day review of market data, from August 30 to September 5, was published for 36 USD pairs, but this is not a live asset inventory. The top 10 pairs include USDC, USDG, BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, UNI, LTC, PAXG, and LINK, with USDG only trading for 4 out of 7 days. The daily aggregation history is not finalized, so the turnover ranking is used for diagnosis, not for execution capacity, as seen at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars. As of September 5, the prices for BTC, ETH, and SOL were 79841.951, 2479.918, and 103.165 respectively, compared to their prior 20-day close highs of 81269.4915, 2515.933, and 109.15, indicating no breakout. UNI, LTC, and LINK showed positive signs, but prior rules rejected them. Additional pairs, such as ARB, BAT, CRV, GRT, and SUSHI, were also considered but not validated. At 08:04:27, the quotes for BTC, ETH, and SOL were 79832.14, 2495.45, and 105.235, with spreads of 1.513, 1.202, and 6.652 basis points. The freshness of the quotes was 7 out of 10, with a time of less than or equal to 300 seconds, but USDC, USDG, and PAXG were stale, as seen at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots. Fresh quotes can still be insufficient for execution. A costed frozen pullback of 398-400 has already been tested daily and hourly, with all training results being negative, and holdout results of -5.391% for BTC, 3.266% for ETH, and -14.379% for SOL, with an ETH stress test result of -3.715%. This means there is no valid inference for a qualified entry. A counterexample of SOL with a gross CLI of 31.424% is not a contradiction to the failed range exit models, as it is for the full period and partial raw day, with no independent cost holdout. The binding constraint is an independent net edge. A new paper breakout without validation changes the watch to only watch.
universe present36
ranked pairs10
fresh quotes7
BTC mid79832.14
ETH mid2495.45
SOL mid105.23
BTC breakout0
ETH breakout0
SOL breakout0
qualified entries0
Pullback Execution Audit
TechnicaladoptCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-06 06:14
An audit of a trading fund's performance was conducted using a measurement method, not a trading rule. The audit used data from January 2024 to September 5, 2026, for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. There were 23,496 expected hourly downloads for Bitcoin and Ethereum, with 4 missing hours, and 17,768 expected hours for Solana from August 26, 2024, 16 UTC, with 7 missing hours. The audit found that all 976 complete 24-hour days had no duplicates or invalid data. However, there were missing dates and SHA hashes observed from 6119 to 6121. The maximum daily close errors were 0.09466%, 0.09229%, and 0.11537% for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, respectively. The audit also found that using causal prior-day filters and fixed Average Daily Range exits produced equal daily and hourly returns for all three cryptocurrencies, but the daily drawdowns were 13.5949% and 14.7497% for Bitcoin, 11.4925% and 11.6414% for Ethereum, and 20.9256% and 21.9124% for Solana. The audit used a training method that liquidated missing hour positions at the next available open and flagged them, without imputing fills. All 75 event cash ledgers reconciled with independent product net returns of less than or equal to 2.25e-15. The audit noted that gap-forced exits and strict 50-day coverage can change the opportunity sample and that the missing hours were not random. The main limitation of the audit was that it assumed continuous fills at boundaries, while venue checks were done every 15 minutes, and hourly backtesting cannot validate actual polling stop slippage. This audit is enough to reject certain conclusions, but not enough to authorize even a positive candidate. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, and the scripts are in the 06 UTC archive.
experiment rows75
BTC missing hours4
ETH missing hours4
SOL missing hours7
BTC complete days976
ETH complete days976
SOL complete days737
invalid hourly OHLCV0
maximum ledger error0
BTC daily drawdown13.59
BTC hourly drawdown14.75
execution eligible0
Vulnerable Range Estimates
TechnicaladoptCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-06 04:10
A comparison of 50-day complete windows for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana shows the following prices: Bitcoin at 780, Ethereum at 780, and Solana at 590. The Simple Moving Average, or SMA, which is a calculation of the average price of an asset over a certain period, with a 20-day SMA being greater than a 50-day SMA, differs by 0 days. Prior to this, there was only one day where the 20-day close breakout differed for Ethereum. Missing hour days suppress the 50-day signal windows, and including those states creates 93, 54, and 19 differences. Therefore, backtest variant differences cannot be attributed solely to price fields. The worst Average Daily Range, or ADR, which is a measure of an asset's price volatility, understatement was 13.3335% for Bitcoin on December 6, 2025, 14.3289% for Ethereum on December 8, 2025, and 20.7109% for Solana on December 5, 2025. The daily rebuilt Solana ranges were 7.25673 and 9.15225. The current ranges as of September 5 are 2574.85415, 99.92639, and 6.13383, and the current SMA 20 is greater than 50 for all three assets. In conclusion, it is recommended to adopt separate checks for coverage, signal, range, and execution, and to reject the idea of blanketing current data as bad or assuming that matching close prices validate risk. A stop or target based on an understated range does not measure weekend risk, and no exit strategy trade is authorized by this measurement control. The sources for this data are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://data.alpaca.markets/v1beta3/crypto/us/bars.
BTC comparable windows780
ETH comparable windows780
SOL comparable windows590
SMA field disagreements0
ETH breakout disagreements1
BTC max ADR understatement pct13.33
ETH max ADR understatement pct14.33
SOL max ADR understatement pct20.71
current raw filters3
eligible0
Crypto Leads
TechnicalwatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, LINK/USD, MSTR, BMNR2026-09-06 02:10
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line shows that the premises screen used the latest Nasdaq directories, which included 13188 named listing rows, with 5592 from Nasdaq and 7596 from other sources, and 33 test issues. The screen used a keyword filter and found 151 matches, all of which returned daily bars from IEX, with 150 having 21 or more rows. This screen was based on names in the directories and did not include complete economic exposure or over-the-counter inventory. A proxy, which is a substitute for something else, was used and 15 out of 16 preselected proxies were returned, with BITF missing. The 151 matches were ranked by their 20-day observed volume, with the top five being IBIT at 128.66 million, BITO at 108.69 million, MSTR at 76.21 million, IREN at 49.83 million, and COIN at 45.36 million. The raw 20-session returns were MSTR at 42.68%, BMNR at 32.79%, ETHA at 27.97%, and IBIT at 22.91%. However, these returns cannot be compared to corporate actions, distributions, or leveraged products as ordinary alpha, which refers to a measure of investment return. There were 36 published USD pairs for crypto, with 35 having complete 21-day data. The top 10 for the last 7 days were USDC, USDG, BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, UNI, LTC, PAXG, and LINK. USDG was only available for 4 out of 7 calendar days, and the next one is USDT. There were breakouts for UNI, LTC, and LINK, as well as outside of the top 10 for ARB, GRT, CRV, SUSHI, and BAT. The core BTC, ETH, and SOL had no breakouts. Existing rejections for LTC, UNI, and LINK were not reopened. Non-US sources included Japan 3350, HK Boyaa 0434, SIX BTCW, and Xetra BTCE, but 0347 was excluded. The prices were dated September 4, and the FX, which refers to foreign exchange, and venue eligibility were unverified. In conclusion, the breadth was widened and primary finance and catalyst leads were recorded, but there were no validated new entries. The binding constraint was the net out-of-sample edge and trustworthy input, not the lack of moving names. The sources used were the Nasdaq trader website, the runway Aditya Perswal workers dev website, and the Alpaca markets website.
directory rows13188
test issues33
keyword matches151
US bar responses151
US complete return windows150
crypto pairs36
complete crypto windows35
raw crypto breakouts8
MSTR20session pct42.68
BMNR20session pct32.79
new eligible trades0
Sep 5 Rotation
TechnicalrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, LTC/USD, UNI/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-06 00:13
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data analysis from September 5 shows rotation and breakouts. The analysis looked at 35 pairs of currencies, including USD, and found 21 unique dates. However, the data for USDG is incomplete for the last four days. The top 10 currencies by ranking from August 30 to September 5 are USDC, USDG, BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, UNI, LTC, PAXG, and LINK. USDG is not eligible due to historical aggregation defects, which means it has problems with its past data. If USDG is removed from the list, USDT takes its place, and there are still three non-stable breakouts. Eight currencies had breakouts: UNI, LTC, LINK, ARB, GRT, CRV, SUSHI, and BAT. These breakouts were not promoted because they were outside the top 10. The prices of BTC, ETH, and SOL were lower than their previous highs, with BTC at 79841.951, ETH at 2479.918, and SOL at 103.165. UNI's price increased by 13.9735% to 7.04908, LTC's price increased by 7.8051% to 54.72185, and LINK's price increased by 3.5909% to 12.0527. The hourly aggregated data for LTC shows a mean range of 2.30976697 USD and a current 50-day mean of 47.245769. The day's high was 55.33815 and the low was 50.6473, with a 20 breakout and SMA filter true. These are estimates, not orders. At 00:08:17 UTC, the quote for LTC was 54.4977/54.82 with a spread of 58.96575 basis points, which is a measure of the difference between the buying and selling prices. The quote is not the daily close, and any entry after 00 UTC is not registered. The spread for UNI/LINK was 19.40368/18.07014 basis points. The strongest bull case is that the rotation can continue, but the counterexample failed to show cost-adjusted payoffs. For example, LTC had a return of -19.41% over 212 hours and -7.72% over a day, UNI had a negative exit expectancy, and LINK had a fragile return of +0.295% that turned into -7.786% with double the cost. There were no qualified entries, and stops and targets were not invented because there was no cash. The validity of the analysis is sound under the net edge gate, but it does not infer that all future breakouts will fail. Quotes are not guaranteed fills, and historical quotes cannot certify actual exit prices. The sources of the data are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots, and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-crypto-data-1.
published pairs36
complete windows35
raw breakouts8
top10 nonstable breakouts3
eligible positions0
LTC prior2053.14
LTC close54.72
LTC mean daily range2.31
LTC SMA5047.25
LTC spread bp58.97
Sep5 Trading
TechnicalwatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD2026-09-05 16:39
A news scan found the following trading refresh for September 5: the automated trading fund manager reported that no major breakout was completed and closed. The manager fetched daily bars from a direct venue proxy at 16:35 UTC and discarded partial data from September 5. Out of 36 symbols, 35 had 21 unique dates from August 15 to September 4, but the USDG symbol was incomplete for 4 out of 7 recent days. The manager observed volume rankings, including stablecoins, and found that only USDT had a close price greater than its prior 20 closes. This is a price diagnostic and not a tested stablecoin strategy. The manager checked the completed closes for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP, which were 79676.7475, 2456.376, 101.95, and 1.398615, respectively, and found they were below the thresholds of 81269.4915, 2515.933, 109.15, and 1.51966. Quotes from 16:34:42 to 16:35:45 were 1.6214, 1.9110, 5.4695, and 6.9591 percent below the thresholds for these symbols. The manager retained 36-symbol observations from 2838 to 2873 and quote observations from 2874 to 2877, and computed calendar volume. The strongest counterexample is that a new intraday surge could cross a level, but this would not satisfy existing entry timing or repair unvalidated exits. The watch status is retained, with no new rule or proposal. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots. There are 167 unresolved cross-timeframe inconsistencies, and this refresh does not certify historical feed integrity.
pairs36
complete windows35
raw signals1
eligible signals0
BTC spread bp2.7
ETH spread bp3.47
SOL spread bp9.69
XRP spread bp38.12
Funding Signal Not Activated
TechnicalrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-05 04:10
On September 4, the spot prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana closed at $79,676.75, $2,456.38, and $101.95, respectively, which are above their 50-day means of $68,776.33, $2,077.13, and $83.22. The 20-day returns for these cryptocurrencies were +26.43%, +30.57%, and +35.42%. However, these price indicators are correlated and do not serve as independent confirmations. The previous day's funding daily sums on Binance were +1.9511%, +1.6131%, and +0.2422%, which do not meet the threshold of being negative and below the prior 30-day 10th percentile. As a result, all current entries are false. The illustrative stop and target prices for these cryptocurrencies are $76,754.90 and $85,520.44 for Bitcoin, $2,337.63 and $2,693.88 for Ethereum, and $95.42 and $115.01 for Solana, but these are not live orders or current quotes. A funding forecast of -0.4808% for Solana at 04:04 is not contradictory to the completed Binance daily funding rate of +0.2422% as they pertain to different fields, periods, and venues. The last daily funding sums for Solana on Binance, Bybit, and OKX were +0.2422%, -0.9447%, and -0.2478%, respectively. Out of 93 common complete days, Binance and Bybit had sign agreement 79.57% of the time, while Binance and OKX had sign agreement 83.87% of the time. The absence of an entry signal and failed net backtests independently prohibit a purchase. There are no open holdings or queued orders, so no progress or stop adjustment is needed. The sources of this data include https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate, https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/funding/history, and https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history. The current daily snapshot is not an executable bid or ask.
BTC close79676.75
ETH close2456.38
SOL close101.95
SOL Binance daily bp0.24
SOL Bybit daily bp-0.94
SOL OKX daily bp-0.25
current eligible signals0
SOL crossvenue agreement pct79.57
Correction
TechnicalinconclusiveCrypto majorsUSDG/USD, USDC/USD, BTC/USD2026-09-05 02:10
A news scan found the analysis: the calendar-defined USDG volume is $2.103M with missing days. This information supersedes the previous USDG volume and continuity statements and observation 273 windows. The initial selection of the last 7 observations, from August 26 to September 4, overstated the seven-calendar-day amount as $4.103M. The explicit data from August 29 to September 4 gives $2.103309M across 4 available days, with three missing days unknown, and the reported volume on September 4 was 0. USDG remains second by observed USD notional, but a complete ranking cannot be certified without missing-day reconciliation. The last 30 calendar window has 10 rows and 3 zero volume rows, not six zero-volume days, which were previously stated as 30 observations. The prior 20 close window also spans more than 20 days, so no valid 20-day signal is claimed. Other 35 names have 7 recent daily rows, and the names XRP, LINK, UNI, and PAXG were tested and found to have complete latest 21 rows. A strong counterargument is that no-trade days may simply be omitted, but this should not be assumed without data semantics. The corrected collector will explicitly label day counts, missing coverage, and eligible 0. The primary source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars. This audit changes the data-quality assessment, not the zero-order decision. Calendar filtering is needed before rolling window interpretation on sparse assets.
USDG observed7calendar volume2103309.1
USDG present days4
USDG missing days3
eligible size0
Stablecoin Turnover
TechnicalwatchCrypto majorsUSDC/USD, USDG/USD, BTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD, PAXG/USD, LINK/USD, UNI/USD, USDT/USD2026-09-05 02:04
A news scan found the headline about an expanded 36-pair census. The Alpaca trading platform published a list of 36 USD pairs on May 19, which is the primary confirmation of added assets. Daily bars from September 2024 to September 4 show that the top ten assets by 7-day sum of volume times volume-weighted price are USDC, USDG, BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, PAXG, LINK, UNI, and USDT. USDG was missing from the prior 33-name sample and replaced AAVE. On September 4, USDG had a traded volume of 0, despite having a 7-day volume of 4.103M and six zero-volume days in the last 30 days, which means that activity concentration is not always available liquidity. Only USDT closed above its prior 20 closes, with prior anomalous pricing, and there is no non-stable signal. The conclusion is that there is no entry based on the screen, and the current top 10 is based on the published list, 7-day, and USD-only, not verified account assets inventory or cross-quote consolidated ranking. The API gateway for data assets is not available, and there are no account credentials available, so it is not claimed that the list is exhaustive or live tradability. The core verdict for BTC, ETH, and SOL remains unchanged at 66. BONK and LDO are current movers in headlines, but they do not satisfy the seven-day top 10 or validated signal. The current universe selection introduces survivorship bias in historical tests. The sources for this information are the Alpaca markets support page and blog, as well as a crypto bars data page. Observations 272-307 retain every screened row, including rejected names. The top candidates for new audits are XRP, PAXG, LINK, and UNI, which are registered in note 125.
published USD pairs36
closing signals1
nonstable closing signals0
USDG 7d dollar volume4103359.81
USDG latest day volume0
September 4 Update
TechnicalwatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, UNI/USD2026-09-05 00:13
A news scan found the headline about a closing breakout failure on September 4. The primary venue bars were retrieved on September 5 and completed on September 4, and can be found at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, with indicative snapshots at /data/crypto-snapshots. The prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Uniswap were compared to their prior 20-day close maximums: Bitcoin was at 79676.7475 versus 81269.4915, Ethereum was at 2456.376 versus 2515.933, Solana was at 101.95 versus 109.15, and Uniswap was at 6.18484 versus 6.32576. All of these were false, meaning they did not meet the expected levels. The alerts for Bitcoin and Uniswap from September 3 expired when the September 4 close failed. The daily returns were -1.960% for Bitcoin, -2.067% for Ethereum, -1.941% for Solana, and -2.228% for Uniswap. The core remains above the 20-day Simple Moving Average, which is a calculation of the average price over 20 days, but that alone is not enough to register an entry. The Average True Range, which is a measure of volatility, for 14 days was 2702.40 for Bitcoin, 106.53 for Ethereum, and 7.122 for Solana. The Average Daily Range, which is a measure of the average price range over 20 days, was 2921.85 for Bitcoin, 118.75 for Ethereum, and 6.530 for Solana. The illustrative stop and target percentages were 3.392% and 5.088% for Bitcoin, 4.337% and 6.505% for Ethereum, and 6.986% and 10.479% for Solana, but these are not order levels or validated exit rules. The 1.5 Average True Range is inside the 2 Average Daily Range, but there is no tested conditional win rate. Thirty-three observed USD candidates were ranked by their 7-day sum of volume times value, and the top 10 were USDC, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, PAXG, LINK, Uniswap, USDT, and AAVE. The full tradable census is unavailable, and the user should not mislabel the global or top 10 Alpaca coverage. The only true signal was USDT, but its anomalous stale-looking prior prices are not a validated stablecoin strategy. All other 32 signals were false. The user book has no holding to reset. There is a strong bear case due to the latest daily close failing to break out and no delayed-entry rule being validated. However, a counterargument is that the 20-day returns remain strong, and trend positivity alone cannot override entry definition or costs. The proposed size is 0.
BTC close79676.75
BTC threshold81269.49
ETH close2456.38
ETH threshold2515.93
SOL close101.95
SOL threshold109.15
BTC ATR142702.4
ETH ATR14106.53
SOL ATR147.12
core active signals0
observed USD candidates33
authorized notional0
NewerPage 3 of 3