Stats

A trading decision was made based on certain premises. A 52-week breakout sample with only four similar events showed a median move of 27.3899% and a P80, which is a measure of the 80th percentile, of 44.3186%. The P80 is a statistical term that means 80% of the values are below this number. At a stock price of $21.19, an October 16 call option with a strike price of $27 and a premium of $0.18 has a hurdle, or a threshold to overcome, of 28.2681%, which is just above the median. However, the intrinsic value, which is the value of the option if it were exercised immediately, is $3.5811, which is 19.8951 times the premium and passes the gate, or the minimum threshold, of 4 times the premium. In 2 out of 4 similar events, the terminal intrinsic value, which is the value at the end of the trading period, was positive. The bootstrap P80 gate frequency, which is a measure of the stability of the sample, is 69.115%, and the confidence interval, which is a range of values within which the true value is likely to lie, is between 13.3238% and 48.6125%. A counterexample, or an exception to the rule, could be a different market regime or a secondary offering that could erase the apparent tail, or the extreme value. In conclusion, buying one minimum contract is justified as a probe, or a test, of the tail, but not as proof of mispricing.

A news scan found the text of a trading fund manager's notes. The manager made three premises. First, they observed ordinary breakout reactions from 2021 to 2026 with 20 session endpoints and no new SIP history, using SIP403 and a separate IEX crosscheck. Second, they recomputed the median absolute value, which was 9.511654, and the percentage, which was 11.818182, on October 16 at a price of 20.75. The hurdle was 4.192771 percent and the gross payoff was 1.702273, which is 14.185606 times the initial investment. Third, they preserved the formal historical gate PASS and found that only one out of six terminal put profits was favorable, with a mean of 14.3712 USD from 2024-08-20. The manager used a bootstrap with 100,000 seeds and found a 95 percent mean interval of -14 to 71.1136. They also found that the cash-deal regime did not match the established outcomes and that the target needs a stock price of 18.2977, which is 10.0849 percent below the offer price of 20.35. The manager concluded that the old generic history does not estimate the current downside odds and that the validity of the model fails to transport after a binding deal. The bootstrap assumes independent and identical old events and omits the regime shift, and is not a probability band for the current trade. The strongest objection is that break risk can produce a put tail despite the deal. The manager needs a matched announced-cash-deal study or documented material deterioration with honest expiry-specific odds to change the rejection. No trade is authorized by this model. The sources are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1436126/000114036126037107/ef20082419_ex99-1.htm.

The premises of this analysis include new breakout name chains from October 16 to November 20, which are fully paginated, and COST from October 2 to November 6, with quotes indicative of September 18. Current annual highs were checked with split-only and preliminary same-type 20 session distributions adjustment, all used for screening only where far from pass. The analysis includes data on several stocks, including NEO, NTRA, MPCN, TWSTN, and SMTCN, with their respective median prices and hurdles. For example, NEO has a median price of 5.9042 and a hurdle of 20.5424%, while NTRA has a median price of 6.8260 and a hurdle of 32.3804%. The analysis also includes data on MTW, HAFN, VNCE, and other stocks. The scope of the analysis is limited to empty chain only queried range/feed, not universal absence of listed options. The conclusion is that cheap distant legs are not convex edge by price alone, and there is no all-market no-opportunity claim. The analysis uses data from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and option-chain/{symbol}?feed=indicative, and every computed row/event/contract screen record is recorded.

A news scan found the following information about an automated trading fund manager's notes. The premises for the analysis are: the stock's closing price is higher than its highest price in the last 252 days, the volume is higher than the average volume of the last 20 days, and the daily turnover is at least 2 million. The analysis also considers a 20-session separation and a 20-session future close, using data from 2016 to September 18. New samples have been added for MG and DSX, which are split-only events. The median absolute values for these samples are: MG N6 with 9.511654%, P80 with 11.818182%; DSX N8 with 13.978504%, P80 with 20.085291%; and TRMD N11 with 6.819740%, P80 with 18.956380%. Earlier adjusted samples for DSX N9 and TRMD N15 have been preserved for sensitivity analysis. The analysis also looks at specific prices and hurdles for MG and DSX, including a 4.192771% hurdle for MG and a 7.717042% hurdle for DSX. The results show that some of these hurdles have been passed, but there are also some uncertainties, such as the unknown put open interest for MG. The analysis concludes that MG and DSX have gross passes that are qualified for review, but there are no orders while the market is closed, and there is no automatic win probability from absolute tail. The sources for this information include stock bars data, option chain data, and SEC filings, specifically https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, option-chain/{symbol}?feed=indicative, option_contracts, and https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1057060/000119312526341302/d135056dex991.htm.

A study of Costco's nine events from May 2024 to May 2026 was conducted. The events were sourced from the issuer's calendar, which is available at https://investor.costco.com/events-and-presentations/. The study found that the median absolute move was 1.755193%, with a maximum move of 6.070162%. A separate analysis of option chain data from October 2 to November 6 showed 1134 legs, with 100 positive ask legs at $29.9814 or less. The nearest affordable option was on October 2, with an ask price of $18 and a bid price of $0.05 at a stock price of $895.31, which would require a 15.133306% move. All other affordable options were farther out of the money and failed. The study concluded that there was no trade opportunity for Costco, and the business's robust sales and earnings did not support a 15% earnings move. According to Costco's third-quarter report, sales were $69.15 billion, up 11.6%, with adjusted comparable sales up 6.6%, and EPS was $4.93, compared to $4.28. The study used data from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-chain/COST. A news scan found the report at https://investor.costco.com/news/news-details/2026/Costco-Wholesale-Corporation-Reports-Third-Quarter-and-Year-To-Date-Operating-Results-For-Fiscal-2026/default.aspx.

The automated trading fund manager analyzed Nike (NKE) based on 12 quarterly reports from September 2023 to June 2026. The median price move after these reports was 6.835675% and the median opening gap was 8.560669%. The analysis used the After-Market Close (AMC) convention, which is a timing method supported by the issuer's afternoon calls. On September 18, the stock price was $35.51, and on October 9, the ask price was $31.30, which would require a 13.54548% increase to reach the intrinsic value of $38.45, or 2.151683 times the current price. However, this increase is not possible, so both gates fail. The best gross return is 4 times the ask ceiling, which is $161.376, but this is reduced to $141.376 if the denominator is the all-in cost. The median return cannot cover the $4.51 strike distance at any positive premium. Other stocks, such as HALO and TH, had frozen matched breakouts, but their absolute tail passes were successful. The signed terminal payoffs for some of these stocks covered the premium plus $0.02. The conclusion is to maintain gross eligibility without treating the 80% success rate as a guarantee or inventing symmetric directional odds. The TH put was rejected as it does not fit the current directional thesis, not because the absolute gate failed. The SFIX put with a strike price of $2.5 and a hurdle of $21.831 is still 1.972 times the median of $16.578. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-chain/NKE?feed=indicative, and the issuer dates were individually recorded.

The automated trading fund manager has refreshed option hurdles and conducted a new eleven-event study on WOR. The study found that eleven issuer-confirmed AMC WOR releases from December 2023 to June 2026, paired with the next session's close, gave a median absolute return of 5.156148% and a P80 return of 10.297667%. The open-gap median was 7.331137% and the P80 return was 10.869923%. The study used source dates and price rows from 30843 to 53. When December 2023 was removed from the study, the median return was 5.394976% and the P80 return was 10.550876%, which did not change the rejection decision. At a price of $57.38 on October 16, a P55 ask of $2.14 needed a 7.877309% return, and the P80 intrinsic value was $3.528801, which was 1.648973 times the ask. A C70 ask of $0.67 needed a 23.16138% return, and the P80 value was zero. All 24 eligible quoted legs had a premium of at least $67, which is greater than 30.3. The frozen breakout medians and P80 values for HALO and TH were 10.5263% and 17.2367% for HALO, and 27.3899% and 44.3186% for TH. The multiples for these stocks were 7.968 and 19.895. The hurdle for SFIX was 21.831%, which was greater than the median return of 16.578%, and the P80 return was 1.972 times the median. The hurdle for BB was 14.894%, which was greater than the median return of 9.115%, and the P80 return was 0.177 times the median. Based on these results, the fund manager has rejected WOR, SFIX, and BB at these quotes and will preserve the gross breakout watch. The absolute tails are not directional odds, as THP18 had a gross return of 26.961 times but 0 out of 4 signed terminal payoffs, and THP16 also had 0 out of 4 signed terminal payoffs. HALO P95 had a gross return of 10.737 times but still had a zero indicative bid and uncalibrated live odds. The prices on September 18 were modified indicative and not Sunday fills. The sources used for this study were https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-chain/WOR?feed=indicative, with source dates in 30843-54.

A news scan found the following analysis: Premises include a frozen prior high with specific volume and dollar volume conditions, and a certain number of session separations, which yields specific median absolute values for HALON17 and THN4. The values are 10.5263 and 17.2367 percent for HALON17, and 27.3899 and 44.3186 percent for THN4. Additionally, spot prices and ask prices are given as 112.45 and 21.19, with specific ask prices for C130 and C27. These require certain percentage values, which are 15.8115 and 28.2681 percent. The analysis also includes mapped P80 intrinsic values and a comparison of tail pass and median fail. Before a 20 percent stock gain or 5 percent stock loss occurs, certain targets are met first, with specific numbers given for HALO and TH. The analysis concludes with median absolute error values of -2.308 and -7.103 percent. A bootstrap analysis with 20,000 IID events yields a 95 percent interval of 10.616 to 23.330 percent and 13.324 to 48.613 percent. The conclusion states that absolute-tail eligibility remains unchanged and path survival is unresolved, and advises against converting stock barriers into option 50 percent stop probabilities due to small sample size and regime selection preventing precise inference. The source of this analysis is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.

A news scan found the report titled R92004, which discusses the replication of a trading strategy. The report is based on certain premises, including a fixed prior of 252 high plus 1.5 volume, 21 session separation, and next open entry, which reproduces the median absolute values of 10.5263 for HALO and 17.2367 for P80, with a percentage of 17.2367. The report also mentions specific dates and prices, such as September 18 with a price of 112.45 and October 16 with a price of 130.23, which imply moves of 15.8115 and 28.2681 percent. The report concludes that a mandated gross pass is a real calculation, but not a robust win probability, and advises against raising confidence or using historical P80 as an 80 percent success rate. The report is based on current-strike intrinsic scenarios, not option returns, and assumes unchanged entry spot over 20 sessions from September 21 to October 16. The report also notes that the current financing hedges are unclassified and that there is a counterexample to stationarity, with HALO having a return of 34.19 percent in 2020 and -23.33 percent in 2025. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-chain/HALO?feed=indicative and TH.

A news scan found the headline 'R92002 new breakout calls pass coarse tail gate; corrected next-open samples and signed odds'. This is a report from an automated trading fund manager. The manager uses a rule called 'fixed volume-backed 252 high rule' to make decisions. This rule looks at the past, from 2016 to September 18, 2026, and makes a 'buy' or'sell' signal based on certain conditions. The manager also looks at 'histories' of stocks, including HALO, TH, and NEO. For HALO, the manager found 17 events with a median absolute change of 10.5263% and a probability of 80% of 17.2367%. For TH, the median absolute change was 27.3899% and the probability of 80% was 44.3186%. The manager also looked at 'intrinsic' values, which are like built-in worth, and 'P80' values, which are like 80% confidence levels. For example, for HALO, the intrinsic value was 1.83266 and the P80 value was 7.9681x. The manager made decisions based on these numbers and found that some 'call' and 'put' options were good candidates for further review. A 'call' option is like a bet that a stock will go up, and a 'put' option is like a bet that a stock will go down. The manager also used a 'half Kelly' strategy, which is a way of managing risk. The manager found that the'mapped mean intrinsic' values for HALO and TH were 1.72258 and 1.86638, respectively. The manager also did a 'bootstrap' analysis, which is like a simulation, and found that the results were'sparse and unstable'. The manager concluded that HALO and TH 'call' options were good candidates for further review, but the options were closed, so the manager decided to hold cash. The manager also noted that the 'breakout' signal was not a scheduled event, but rather a signal that happened on a certain date. The manager used data from'stock bars' and 'option chains' to make these decisions.

A news scan found the following analysis: Premises are based on ten issuer earnings dates observed from August 8 to 17, plus October 2024 sensitivity. Excluding ambiguous October data produces a median of 13.153864% and P80 of 21.271719%. Including either October 1 or October 2 reaction yields a median of 10.017371% and P80 of 20.107527%. A small event, Lamb Weston, with a stock price of 46.67 on October 16, has a put option with an ask price of 0.23 and a bid price of 0.18, requiring a 20.141418% move. This is an intrinsic value, which is a measure of an option's value, and it is 0.931230 times the required value, versus 4 times the required value, which is a benchmark. Excluding this event also fails to meet the required value of 3.293526 times. The analysis also looked at training data with a median of 16.290357% and holdout data with a median of 4.882973%. A bootstrap analysis, which is a statistical method, found a median of 2.5712% to 20.1075% and P80 of 10.0174% to 28.2374%. This uncertainty does not mean the event is a pass. The analysis also looked at option chains, which are lists of available options, and found that none of the 130 affordable and eligible options passed. Specifically, SFIX has a put option with a strike price of 2.5 and a price of 0.28, which still requires a 21.830986% move, versus a median of 16.578014% and P80 of 31.413933%. BB has a put option with a strike price of 7 and a price of 0.20, which needs a 14.893617% move, versus a median of 9.1152815% and P80 of 12.832986%. The sources of this data are option chains and daily bars, which are lists of stock prices. The figures describe the strike-plus-premium breakeven, which is the price at which an option becomes profitable, not the at-the-money implied move, which is a measure of an option's value. The P80 intrinsic is also not the actual option expected value, which is a measure of an option's value. The conclusion is to reject the quoted options, as the executable spreads and time value and future regime remain uncertain.

A review of Conagra's earnings events from January 2024 to July 2026, which had 29674 to 84 recorded events, primarily released at 7:30, along with PDF announcements in October, and a duplicate count on January 4, has been conducted. The review measured the reaction to these events from close to close, similar to the inherited median, without mixing it with the gap. The median absolute reaction was 2.0644096%, with the 80th percentile reaction being 5.4213318%, and the maximum reaction being 8.041958%. The signed mean reaction was -0.881869%. A separate overnight median reaction was 2.811245%, with the 80th percentile reaction being 5.124056%. A bootstrap analysis with 50,000 iterations and a seed of 91908 found the 95% confidence interval for the median reaction to be 1.5216% to 5.4213%, and the 80th percentile reaction to be 2.0644% to 8.0420%. The analysis did not model small sample or regime dependence. The current ask price is $15.13 and the bid price is $0.08 for the October 16 contract, which requires an 8.988764% reaction to reach the breakeven point, with no affordable expiry eligible legs passing. A news scan found the headline that Conagra Brands will release fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings on September 30, 2026. The conclusion is to reject the current chain under both mandate gates. Even excluding the October 2025 event, the median reaction of 1.98285% and 80th percentile reaction of 4.58254% still fails. A counterexample of an unprecedented guidance collapse could pay, but there is no measured probability to justify overriding the rule. The sampling excludes older regimes before 2024 and does not measure the remaining 16 calendar-day option time value, with no option expected value claim. The sources of the data are event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, which is an indicative chain.

A study of BlackBerry's earnings releases from June 2023 to June 2026 found that the median absolute close reaction was 9.1152815% and the 80th percentile was 12.832986%. The study used adjusted SIP bars to measure reactions to morning and evening release calls. The median reaction for the training period from 2011 to 2025 was 9.1153% and the 80th percentile was 12.6829%. The chronological holdout for 2026 had two reactions of +8.2153% and +19.9536%. A bootstrap analysis with 20,000 iterations and a seed of 91906 found that the 95% intervals for the median were 6.9860% to 12.6829% and for the 80th percentile were 10.0756% to 22.2767%. On September 18, the stock price was $7.99 and the put option bid was $0.06 and ask was $0.20, with a full premium of $20 and an expiry of 8 days after the September 24 issuer event. The hurdle rate was 14.893617% and the hypothetical put option downside intrinsic value was $0.03535558, which was 0.1767779 times the premium. Both gates failed, meaning that the absolute upward move could not pay for the put option. No affordable contract was found in the 230 retrieved snapshots from October 1 to November 6. The source of the data was https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/BB?feed=indicative. The price ceilings for the same stock price were negative for the $7 put option, $0.238311 for the $7.5 put option, and $0.133839 for the $8 put option, indicating that a potential nearer strike was only possible if the fresh price fell below the ceiling. Statistical eligibility is not the same as actual option expectancy, and there was no cash-pressure override.

A news scan found the headline 'R91904 SFIX ten-event distribution: affordable put fails ask, passes only near.13'. This refers to a study of the stock SFIX. The study is based on three main ideas: first, it looks at ten events related to AMC earnings from March 2024 to June 2026; second, it measures how the stock price changes from the day before an event to the day after; and third, it uses a specific method to adjust for daily changes. The study found that on September 18, the price of a put option, which is a type of financial contract, was.28. A put option is a contract that gives the buyer the right to sell a stock at a certain price. The study calculated that the median, or middle value, of price changes was 16.578014%, and the 80th percentile, or the value below which 80% of the data falls, was 31.413933%. The study concluded that the current price of the put option is too high and that it would be better to wait for a cheaper price. The study also found that only one out of ten events had a price change that exceeded the cost of the put option, and that the mean, or average, price change was.116659. The study used a method called bootstrapping to estimate the range of possible price changes, and found that the 95% confidence interval, or the range of values within which the true value is likely to fall, was 7.990075% to 30.251626% for the median, and 16.524823% to 44.347826% for the 80th percentile. The study also noted that the results are limited by the assumption that the data is independent and identically distributed, and that the soundness of the results has not been proven. The data used in the study can be found at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/SFIX?feed=indicative and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.