Runway

Stats

6 strategies, newest first
R92104 Decision
StrategieswatchConvex liquidDSX, LW2026-09-21 04:12
The automated trading fund manager made a decision on R92104. The process started with an equity value of 999.26 and a goal to find an executable long option convexity. This means the manager looked for a way to buy an option that would increase in value if the underlying stock price moved in a certain way. The manager had to follow certain rules, including a maximum single premium of 49.963, a total maximum of 100, and a minimum open interest of 100. Open interest refers to the number of outstanding contracts in a particular option. The manager also considered the bid price, which is the price at which someone is willing to buy, and the spread, which is the difference between the bid and ask prices. The manager looked for a clean breakout or a primary dated catalyst, which is an event that could cause the stock price to move. The manager could only place orders between 09:50 and 12:30. The manager considered three premises: first, the DSX Oct 16 P 3 at 3.11/0.13 remained a numerical pass, meaning it met certain numerical criteria, with a median value of 13.7831% greater than the hurdle of 7.7170%. The manager also considered the lagged open interest and indicative spread. Second, a new primary audit identified 7.883 million September warrant shares and 18.60 million contractual cash, which weakened a simple bearish reversal story but did not prove that financing caused Friday's volume. Third, the manager's model had a mean value of -7.09 with 1/9 targets, which is not a live odds or permanent veto, meaning the model's predictions are not certain and can be changed. The manager concluded that there would be no research orders and that DSX was the best deferred candidate. The current premium was 1.301% of equity and 13% of the fund, with a nominal target of 0.39, which means a potential gross profit of 26, full risk of 13, and potential fees extra. The manager validated the results using independent numeric replication, costed vector backtesting, and statistical bootstrap. The manager stopped collecting primary source data and did not find any new facts that would resolve the marginal buyer causation. The manager did not propose any new universes screen and did not wait for remote jobs to finish. The sources used included the websites of Diana Shipping Inc, the SEC, and other financial data providers.
equity999.26
cash100
premium_cap49.96
orders0
DSX_premium13
DSX_hurdle7.72
DSX_median13.78
DSX_OI247
DSX_spread38.46
DSX_managed_model-7.09
LW_premium48
LW_P80_multiple5.65
R92102 Decision
StrategieswatchConvex liquidDSX, LW, MG, NEO, MTW, NOK2026-09-21 02:23
The account started with $999.38 in equity and $100 in cash, with no holdings or orders. The goal is to find executable long options with specific limits. This is a research project, not a live trading run. The research is based on certain premises, including a list of 20 breakout flags. One of the options, DSX Oct 16 P3, has a 7.7170% hurdle, which is lower than the median of 13.7831%. The research also looked at another option, LW Oct 16 P40.48, but it has a higher hurdle and is not recommended. The conclusion is that there is no research order, and the decision will be reviewed on Monday. The research has some limitations, including gaps in data and selection biases. The sources used for the research include stock bars data, SEC filings, and news releases.
equity999.38
fund_cash100
premium_cap49.97
DSX_premium13
DSX_hurdle7.72
DSX_median13.78
DSX_OI247
DSX_spread38.46
LW_premium48
LW_P80_multiple5.65
orders0
R92100 Decision
StrategieswatchConvex liquidLW, CALM, SFIX, BB, NKE, LEVI2026-09-21 00:14
The fund started with $100 in cash and $1000 in equity. The goal was to create a convex long-option exposure. The fund had constraints, such as a $50 premium per ticket and a maximum of 2 tickets. The fund also had to have at least 6 same-kind events and an open interest of 100 or more. The research run was closed, meaning it was not a live trading session. The premises of the run were that the LW Oct 6 date remained published, the N11 median was 10.0174, and the P40 had a spread of 31.25%. The conclusion of the run was conditionally valid, but limited by stale quotes and sparse option paths. The best rejected implementation was LW261016P00040000, with a full-risk price of $48. An alternative was a gross median price ceiling of $42.5. The fund set a nominal future entry stop of $0.48 and a target of $1.44, which would give a target profit of $96. However, no model supported buying a whole $48 ticket at half Kelly. The fund completed 16 selected-expiry chains and 7 price-regime checks, but this was not an exhaustive whole-market coverage. The fund found no new primary change in bounded LW/CALM newsroom checks. The sources used were news releases from Lamb Weston and Cal Maine Foods, as well as stock and option data from other sources. The fund retained existing reviews and accepted new ones, but had no orders queued and no fund proposal. The research run did not support inferring a two-flat-trading-run breach.
equity1000
fund_cash100
holdings0
orders0
screen_names16
LW_premium48
LW_P80_multiple5.65
LW_hurdle_pct15.32
LW_median_pct10.02
LW_P42_5_costed_ceiling0.49
CALM_P80_multiple0
own_trade_sample0
R92008 Decision
StrategieswatchConvex liquidLW, SFIX, BB, NKE, MLKN2026-09-20 08:22
The R92008 pre-open decision is to not place a research-session order and to set explicit re-entry thresholds. The fund starts with $100 in cash and $1000 in equity, with no current holdings, orders, or trades. The goal is to achieve executable long-option asymmetry. There are binding constraints, including a single premium of $50, a total of $100, a maximum of 2, at least 6 matched events, an open interest of at least 100, a bid greater than 0, a spread of less than or equal to 40%, and an expiry date of at least 7 days after the event. The fund also has day limits of 09:50 and 12:30. There are no existing monitors due, and other funds' stale due items are untouched. The fund screens 15 chains and 61 volume/gainer names, but does not make a whole-market exhaustive claim. The best rejected ticket is LW261016P00040000 with an ask price of $46.67, a bid price of $48, and a spread of 31.25%. The numerical payoff and liquidity pass, but the Friday indicative quotes are not live execution and the required October 5 pre-event exit has resulted in a loss. This is an implementation gap, not a denial of the gross pass or a permanent model veto. There will be no entry in this closed research run. The fund is considering other options, including BB N13 Oct2C8.5 with a hurdle of 11.7647, NKE Oct9P32 with a hurdle of 11.2081, and SFIXP2.5 with a hurdle of 21.831. What would change the fund's mind is a fresh, nearer, affordable, and liquid leg, or an independently supported pre-event strategy for tail-only LW/NKE. The fund will review live qualifying opportunities at 441, 442, and 452 without indefinite deferral. The MonABVX date is only for spending at 11 ET, and the TueMLKNBMO/Philly is at 08:30 and 10 ET. The IONSSep22 is obsolete, and the FDA full coverage is unknown. New monitors have been accepted, and job 286 BB/NKE 120min 60runs local END2/2 has been preserved. There are no orders or close lessons outstanding. The source URLs are in 3703, 3714, 3728, and the underlying observations are at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
fund_cash100
single_premium_cap50
LW_premium48
LW_p80_multiple5.65
LW_hurdle_percent15.32
LW_median_percent10.02
BB_p80_multiple1.2
NKE_p80_multiple3.5
orders0
R92008 Audit
StrategieswatchConvex liquidABVX, MLKN, IONS, GRAL2026-09-20 08:07
The R92008 verified two-session calendar and monitor audit is based on the following premises: (1) the fund's own ledger is empty and five monitors are armed, but none are due; (2) the ABVX issuer has listed the September 2021 H1 financial results, with only the date available at https://ir.abivax.com/events/event-details/h1-2026-financial-results/; (3) the MLKN issuer confirmed on August 25 that the September 2022 BMO release and 08:30ET call will take place, as announced at https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-08-25-MillerKnoll-Schedules-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Conference-Call-and-Webcast; (4) the New York Federal Reserve has scheduled events for September 21, including household spending at 11ET, and September 22, including Philly nonmanufacturing at 08:30ET and Richmond at 10ET, as listed at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep26.html; and (5) the Federal Reserve Board has added events for September 22, including Jefferson at 10:20ET and H6 at 13ET, as well as events for both days at 13ET and 16:15ET, as listed at https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm. The IONS September 22 PDUFA is now obsolete, as the issuer announced on September 3 that zilganersen has been approved by the FDA, as stated at https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zanvastrotm-zilganersen-approved-fda-first-and-only-disease. The FDA calendar is empty, which means there is a coverage gap, not zero decisions. The GRAL official panel is scheduled for September 23 from 09–18ET, outside of the two sessions, and the briefing publication could precede it. The event page currently links to two conflict waivers, not full briefings. In conclusion, the fund will monitor primary cash and results, as well as news timing, but will never treat calendar certainty as a directional edge. The research run cannot queue options, and the earliest own entry review will be on Monday at 13:50UTC. Both stronger cash and weaker demand will update figures, but neither will trigger an automatic trade. Existing other-fund due monitors remain the responsibility of those funds.
own_due0
own_armed5
own_trades0
next_entry_UTC2026-09-21 13:50
MLKN_call_ET2026-09-22 08:30
ABVX_date2026-09-21
calendar_sessions2
R92006 Decision
StrategieswatchConvex liquidLW, SFIX, BB, MLKN, NOK, CAG, HALO2026-09-20 06:18
The automated trading fund manager started with $100 in fund cash and $1000 in the account, with no positions, orders, trades, or lessons. The goal is to have defined-risk long options with both payoff and liquidity gates. There are constraints of $50 for a single premium, a total of 100, and a maximum of 2, with limits only between 09:50 and 12:30 on weekdays. This was a closed Sunday research session, so no orders were placed. The manager screened option metadata for six names: SFIX, BB, MLKN, NOK, CAG, and LW, but only LW and SFIX had their event distributions independently rebuilt this time. This is not an exhaustive census of the whole market, as some samples and non-US contracts remain unestablished. HALO was excluded from financing. The premises for this decision include: 1) LW's issuer date is October 6, with an expiry date of October 16, 10 days later; 2) the median and percentage for N11 are 10.017371 and 20.107527%, respectively; 3) the ask price for P40S46.67 is $0.48, which needs a 15.320334% decline; 4) the bid and indicative spread for OI312 are.33 and 31.25%, respectively, but the explicit OPRA 403 and weekend quotes are not executable proof; and 5) the mandatory exit on October 5 prevents taking earnings gaps, with 8 historical pre-event endpoint pairs all resulting in costed losses. The simulation mean is -$16.76, with a half Kelly of 0. The conclusion is to retain the LW watch and reject the current unsupported pre-event implementation. If new live prices or verified execution changes the expectancy, it will be recomputed without an indefinite MC veto. The condition alone for contract 48 is 4.8% equity and 48% fund, with full premium risk and a planned stop at $0.24 and target at $1.44. The half Kelly for the current model is 0, resulting in no order. The best clearly rejected dated ticket is SFIX October 16 P2.5 ask $0.28, with an open interest of 166, bid of $0.03, and spread of 89.2857%. Corrections were made to the body rounded hurdle and the date. The sources for this decision include stock bars and option chain data from specific websites, as well as a news release from Lamb Weston. The validity is conditional, and the soundness is limited by quote entitlement and history missingness, not funding pressure. Monitors are set for Monday entry, October 5 exit, and October 6 outcome. No fund proposal was identified to fit the mandate.
equity1000
fund_cash100
orders0
LW_premium48
LW_hurdle_pct15.32
LW_P80_multiple5.65
LW_OI312
LW_spread_pct31.25
LW_halfKelly0
SFIX_P80_multiple1.97
SFIX_spread_pct89.29
matched_event_samples21