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A test was done on the stock HITI to see how it performed over time. The test looked at the company's earnings reports from March 2024 to June 2026. It found that the stock price changed by a median of 4.700378% after each report. On September 11, the stock price was $2.53, and on October 16, it was $2.5. To make a profit, the stock price would need to increase by 9.090909% or decrease by 9.486166%. The test also looked at the stock's intrinsic value and found that it was not high enough to justify the current option prices. The company is set to announce its financial results after the market closes on September 14, 2026. The test used data from option contracts and stock prices. Here are the key points: the stock price on September 11 was $2.53, which is above its 20-day and 50-day averages; the stock's volatility is high, but this does not necessarily mean the price will go up or down; the test did not find any evidence that the stock price will reach its target price; and the current option prices are too high. The test found that the current premiums for the options are $21 and $16, but these prices do not provide enough coverage or payoff. The test also found that the current put option premium is too high, and the call option premium is too low. The default exit strategy for the stock was to sell on September 11, and there is no plan to buy the stock on Monday without new information.

A test of Stitch Fix option closing targets did not meet the required asymmetric exit criteria. The test looked at 10 consecutive earnings reports from March 2024 to June 2026, with a daily bar adjustment of 16.578014% from release close to next session close. The test considered three options: a call option on September 11 with a strike price of 2.95, a call option on October 16 with a strike price of 2.5, and a put option on September 12 with a strike price of 2.5. The results showed that none of the options met the required return of 3.389831% or 72.881356%. A news scan found the headline that Stitch Fix announced its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 financial results and conference call will be held after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. The test used data from option contracts, stock bars, and option bars. The key findings were: 1. None of the observed closing marks reached 4 times the entry premium, and none hit half the premium. 2. The current call option requires a gross target of 2.00, which is equivalent to a 52.542373% stock rise, but this is not achievable. 3. The nearest current call cost is 50 USD, which is above the conviction cap of 42.5495. The test concluded that the current option targets do not validate the required asymmetric exit criteria.

The automated trading fund manager is watching Stitch Fix, ticker SFIX, and has reverified 10 consecutive earnings reports from March 2024 to June 2026. The median absolute change in the stock price after an earnings report is 16.578014%. The manager is considering a call option with a strike price of 2.5 and an expiration date of October 16. To make a profit, the stock price would need to increase by 3.389831% within 4 out of 10 trading days. The manager has found that the stock price is currently below its intrinsic value, but this is not a sufficient condition to enter a trade. The manager uses a conviction cap, which is a measure of the maximum price an investor is willing to pay for an option, and has set it at 0.425495 for a 3% risk and 0.925495 for a 5% risk. The manager also uses a coverage ceiling, which is the maximum price an investor is willing to pay for an option based on the stock's historical returns, and has set it at 1.091684434968 times the stock price minus 0.05. The manager has analyzed the stock's price history and found that it is currently below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The relative strength index, or RSI, is 35.386979, and the average true range, or ATR, is 0.146365. The manager will continue to watch the stock, but has not adopted a technical rule to enter a trade yet.

A test was done on the stock LUXE, which is a ticker symbol for a company, to see how its price changed after nine consecutive fiscal earnings reports from May 2024 to May 2026. The test found that the median absolute change in price was 5.245902%, with a range of -11.810013% to 23.8%. On September 11, the stock price was 7.39. To make a profit from buying a put option, which is a type of financial contract, with a strike price of 5, the stock price would need to fall by 33.694181% to 5.05, but this only happened 0 out of 9 times. A news scan found the headline that the company will announce its fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2026 earnings release and conference call on September 16, 2026. The test also looked at the stock's price in relation to its moving averages, which are averages of the stock's price over a certain period of time, and found that on September 11, the stock price was below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which is a measure of the stock's recent price changes, was 41.1713, indicating a weak trend. Based on these technical indicators, the decision was made to reject buying the put option.

A test was done to see if buying a put option for Stitch Fix, ticker symbol SFIX, would be a good idea. A put option is a type of investment that gives the owner the right to sell a stock at a certain price. The test looked at the stock's performance after the company announced its earnings for the last 10 quarters, from March 2024 to June 2026. The stock's price changed by a median of 16.578014% after these announcements. On September 11, the stock price was 2.95, and on October 16, a put option with a price of 2.5 was available for 0.12. Another option was available for 0.50 on September 10, and it was assumed that there would be an additional cost of 0.05 per share. To make a profit, the stock price would need to decrease by 21.016949% or increase by 3.389831%. The test found that buying a call option, which gives the owner the right to buy a stock at a certain price, would be a better idea, but the cost of the option was too high. The test also found that buying a put option would not be a good idea, as the potential profit was not high enough. A news scan found the headline that Stitch Fix would announce its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 financial results on September 23, 2026. The put option would expire on October 16, 23 days later. The test used data from option contracts and stock prices, and it found that the stock's trend was weak and its correlation with the market was low. The test used a type of analysis called Wilder's Exponential Weighted Moving average, or EWM, and a type of volatility measurement called Average True Range, or ATR. It also used a type of statistical analysis called Ordinary Least Squares, or OLS. The test found that the stock's price was below its 20-day moving average, and its Relative Strength Index, or RSI, was 35.38698, which indicates a weak trend. The test also found that there was no new indicator that would make buying a put option a good idea, and that the weak trend did not make up for the low potential profit. The test concluded that buying a put option for Stitch Fix would not be a good idea.

A test was done to see how the price of TCOM changed after the company announced its earnings. The test looked at nine times when the company announced its earnings between February 2024 and June 2026. It found that the median change in price was 5.543964% and the average change was -0.908716%. On September 11, the price of TCOM was $39.02. On October 16, the price of a call option was $0.30 and the price of a put option was $0.40. To buy these options, a reserve of $0.05 per share was needed. The test found that if this reserve was used, the return on investment would be 16.222450% if the price went up and -11.455664% if the price went down. However, the test also found that the options did not pay out as expected. The options were set to expire on October 16, 31 days after the company announced its earnings on September 2. The test used data from option contracts and a website. It also used a corrected set of data that included May 19, 2025, and August 26, 2024. The test found that the price of TCOM was still below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which is a measure of how overbought or oversold a stock is, was 25.413057, which is low. The test also found that the price of TCOM had gone down by 13.327410% in the last 20 days. The premise of the test was that the bearish trend could continue. However, it is also possible that the stock could experience a relief rally, which would hurt the value of put options. The test found that the current increase in the price of TCOM made the put strike farther away, despite the premium falling. The test used algebraic thresholds to determine the targets for the options, but these were not defended as actual targets. The test did not estimate the odds of the options expiring or the time value of the options. The hard limit was the full premium risk. No synthetic stock stop was used for the option position. The flat book had no exits to move.

The automated trading fund manager performed an edge test on ten issuer-dated scheduled AMC earnings from March 2024 to June 2026. The test compared the daily pre-release close to the next-session close, with a median absolute change of 4.700378% and a signed mean of -3.027709%. As of September 11, the S2.53 and October 16 K2.5 call at $0.21 and put at $0.16, plus assumed roundtrip costs of $0.05 per share, require a return of +9.090909% and -9.486166% respectively. Both of these returns are below 40%. The old frozen N9 remains at 1/9, with a median of 5.494505%, and will be preserved separately. The source of the data is from option contracts and websites including https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars. High Tide Inc announced that it will release its third fiscal quarter 2026 financial results after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026. The October 16 expiry is 32 days after this announcement, and the default September 11 RTH exit has already elapsed. The hurdles exceed the new median of 4.390531 and 4.785788, with no hold exception. The closes are not executable asks, and the intrinsic value is not the actual option profit and loss. The manager performed a successful single 15-minute probe before a 10-session batch with 2 workers, recovering 260 out of 260 expected RTH 15-minute bars. The manager mapped current costed percent hurdles onto each historical pre-close and inspected 15-minute opens. The underlying diagnostic is not an option quote. The call hurdle hits at any sample 1/10, and the put hurdle hits at 2/10. None of the sample hits establish an option 3R target or fillable quotes. The actual venue 15-minute check phase is unverified. The daily versus intraday aggregation differences are retained, and the frozen mandate uses daily bars. The current S2.53 is above the SMA20 of 2.501 and SMA50 of 2.3244, with an ATR20 of 0.08099. The pre-event positive level does not justify failed signed option coverage, and no exits were moved because the results were flat.

A test of Nokia's stock trend recovery from January 2024 to July 2026 showed that the median absolute change in the stock price on the day of earnings releases was 5.864627%. The range of changes was from -8.474903% to 11.444479%. For example, on September 11, the stock price was $11.13, and to reach the strike price of $13.45 by October 30, the stock would need to increase by 21.293801%. A news scan found the financial calendar for 2026 on Nokia's website. The test also showed that the premium for some option contracts exceeded the cap of 51.0594%. The test used data from various sources, including stock and option bars. The results showed that the stock's close price on September 11 was $11.13, which is above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and the Relative Strength Index was 60.974432. The 20-day return was 5.397727%, and the annualized log return volatility was 42.145303%. The trend could continue before October 22, but it does not imply a 21.29% jump in the stock price. The test also considered the possibility of a persistent drift in the stock price, which could result in profits for long calls before earnings, but this would require actual option costs and forward prices, not just the event distribution.

A test was done to see if the price of CAG is low enough to consider buying a put option. The test looked at the median absolute change in CAG's stock price after morning earnings announcements from July 2024 to July 2026, which was 2.064410%. On September 11, the stock price was $14.60, and on October 9, a call option with a strike price of $15.5 was available. To make this option profitable, the stock price would need to increase by 8.904110% or 7.876712%, including a cost of $0.05. However, the current stock price of $14.60 requires a decrease of 4.041096% to be profitable, and the current premium of $0.60 requires a decrease of 5.136986%. Another stock, LW, had a median absolute change in stock price of 13.153864% after morning events from July 2024 to July 2026. The test also looked at the moving averages of CAG's stock price, with the 20-day moving average at $15.796 and the 200-day moving average at $15.38265. The average true range, or ATR, which measures price volatility, was $0.41226, and the relative strength index, or RSI, which measures the stock's recent price changes, was 35.5222. The test found that the current put option price of 5.137% is not a good value, as it is below the expected cap, and the cost of $0.60 is too high. A reversal in the stock price could change this analysis, and the test did not find any technical reason to buy the put option.

A trading fund manager analyzed the stock performance of BB, HITI, and GIS. The manager used a test called an edge test to evaluate the stocks. For BB, the median absolute change in earnings from September 2023 to June 2026 was 9.987505%. On September 11, the stock price was 7.67, and on October 2, the call option price was 0.45, plus 0.05 in assumed costs, which required a 10.821382% increase. For HITI, the median change was 5.494505%, and for GIS, it was 3.063603%. The manager also looked at the stocks' prices and moving averages. BB's close price was 7.67, a 1.7241% increase, but still below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The manager used indicators like RSI and ATR to evaluate the trend. The results showed a weak trend for the stocks. The manager also checked the companies' earnings announcement dates: BB on September 12, HITI on September 14, and GIS on September 23. The manager concluded that the stocks did not meet the required criteria, with no 40% pass or documented 3x expected payout. The manager used data from option contracts, stock bars, and historical issuer URLs to make these observations.

A news scan found the headline about BlackBerry's weak daily regime, which is insufficient evidence for a put. The edge test was frozen on September 11, with BlackBerry's stock price at 7.54. The October 2 call option with a strike price of 8 requires an increase of 11.405836% to be profitable, covering 3 out of 12 periods, or 25%. The October 2 put option with a strike price of 7 requires a decrease of 11.405836% to be profitable, covering 2 out of 12 periods, or 16.67%. Over the past 12 quarterly releases, from September 2023 to June 2026, the median absolute change in stock price from before to after the news was 9.987505%. Neither the 40% gate nor the documented 3 times expected option payout was met. The October 2 expiry is 8 days after the September 24 event, and the default exit on September 23 was not met because the hurdle exceeded the median by 1.418331 percentage points. Sources include issuer-dated event observations 24113-24126, and data from https://investors.blackberry.com/, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars. Key statistics include a SIP adjustment on September 10, a Wilder Exponential Weighted Moving Average, or EWMA, of 14, and a Relative Strength Index, or RSI, of 38.0472. The stock's current price of 7.54 is below both its 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages, or SMAs. The realized volatility over the past 20 days is 55.2129% annualized, and over the past 60 days is 76.3078%. The return over the past 20 days was -14.0251%, and the range was 7.47-9.08. The combined lower trend and RSI below 50 signal weakness, and the falling realized volatility means recent realized volatility is lower than the 60-day regime. These statistics are descriptive and do not include a fitted put win probability. A put break-even point of 6.68 lies 10.5756% below the 20-day low of 7.47, near the 7.5 put with a cost of 0.52, which is greater than the 0.510594 cap. An ATR stop, or Average True Range stop, cannot bound the option premium or overnight gap, and to reach the full risk targets of call 1.60 or put 1.28, there would need to be a major repricing, but there is no evidence that the current priced tails reach these levels. A strong countercase is a trend turn after good results, but a call on stock upside does not mean an expensive call is profitable, and indicators do not override the 3 out of 12 and 2 out of 12 periods.

An edge test was performed on several stocks, including PLAY, VRA, SFIX, and TCOM, with specific option prices and dates, such as PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10.40/P7.50, which require a 27.294982% increase or a 20.440636% decrease. The test results showed that all of these options failed to meet the required criteria, with no documented actual option expected payout greater than or equal to 3 times the premium. The sources used for this test include issuer schedules and data from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. The data was checked with delayed bars from September 10. Calculations were made using Wilder 14 RSI, which is a measure of stock price volatility, and ATR, which stands for Average True Range, a measure of stock price movement, as well as 20/50 SMA, which refers to Simple Moving Average, a measure of stock price trend. The results of these calculations for each stock are as follows: for PLAY, the RSI14 was 35.73768198709139, the ATR14 was 0.5767722089866175, and the RV20_ann_pct, which is the 20-day annualized log return volatility, was 69.80237704694696. Similar calculations were made for TCOM, VRA, and SFIX. All of the stocks were found to be below their 20/50 SMA, with TCOM and SFIX also being below their prior 20-day low. The RSI14 for TCOM and SFIX was found to be oversold, at 22.724174520833685 and 29.483216244943506, respectively. However, this does not necessarily mean that the prices will reverse, as oversold conditions can continue. The range and RSI are not sufficient to determine the distribution of event moves, and cannot replace the need for same-kind events or executable option backtests. In fact, counterexamples of oversold bounces can harm put options. In order to achieve a 3R net full premium risk, the targets would need to be at least 4 times the premium, but the empirical medians do not support this. No stop or target was invented for the rejected orders.

A news scan found the headline about a completed trading session. The session levels challenge direction without overriding option affordability. An edge test was done on MLKN Oct16 P17.5, which is a type of option, with a reference price of 0.28 on Sep9 and a stock price of 20.80 on Sep10. This requires a decrease of 17.211538%. There were eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, with a median absolute change of 10.745876% and coverage of 1/8, which is 12.5%, less than 40%. The intraday lows were also 1/8. HITI was frozen with a median absolute change of 5.494505% and a ratio of 0.31 to 0.16 at a stock price of 2.56, requiring a change of +9.765625% or -8.593750%. The close coverage was 1/9 each, and the put daily low was 4/9, but this is only visible in hindsight. Neither of the documents expected an option payoff of more than or equal to three times the premium. The premises were based on Sep10 completed SIP daily descriptors stored for 9 symbols in observations 23025 to 33. MLKN had a stock price of 20.8, which is below its Simple Moving Average, or SMA, of 22.71575, with a decrease of 3.9261% on the day, and an Average Daily Range, or ADR, of 0.79, and an Average True Range, or ATR, of 0.8025. The put strike of 17.5 is 4.1772 ADR below the spot price, and the break-even point of 17.22 is 4.5316 ADR below. HITI had a stock price of 2.56, which is above its SMA of 2.4905, despite a decrease of 0.3891% on the day, with an ADR of 0.07847 and an annual Relative Volatility, or RV, of 35.764%, so the trend alone does not choose the put direction. HAIN had an annual RV of 141.625%, which does not remove the standard put K1, with a maximum payout of 0.37 times 2.7027. ZUMZ closed at 16.71, which is below its SMA of 18.02175, before an after-hours price of 13.925, but the fall had already occurred. GRAL had a stock price of 77.56, which is near its SMA of 77.2225, with an ADR of 4.4487, and an affordable put strike of 40 with a premium of 0.35 requires a fall of 48.8783%, which the indicator volatility does not establish. SRRK had a stock price of 55.67, with an increase of 1.9224% on the day, and the nearest put strike of 55 had a cost of 3.70, and the nearest call strike had a cost of 4.30, which is beyond the cap. EPM had a stock price of 3.84, with an increase of 4.0650% on the day, and a cheap call strike of 5 with a premium of 0.03 requires a rise of 30.9896%. ACB and SNDL had stock prices of 3.73 and 1.34, respectively, which are below their SMAs of 3.891 and 1.34875, respectively, with a verified dated event missing. The validity of the technical regimes is context, not an 8-event edge, and a counterexample is a priced binary event that dwarfs the normal ADR. No stops or targets were reset because there were no holdings, and no technical rule was traded. The data can be found at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and option_contracts.

A news scan found the report that the positive trend of HITI does not overcome the event premium hurdle. The HITI Oct16 K2.5 call and put options closed at 0.31 and 0.18 on September 9. The underlying price was 2.555 through September 10 at 19:20 UTC. The issuer, N9, is set to announce earnings after the market closes, with a directional break-even point of +9.98043% and -9.19765%, and coverage of 11.111% each, which is less than 40%. The median absolute close is 5.494505% and the median absolute gap is 2.34375%. The thresholds exceed the close median by 4.485925 and 3.703146 percentage points, so there is no exception to hold through. The recent put option price is 0.16, which is still 1/9 at 8.414873%. The intrinsic-only mean payoff is 0.166696 times the premium for the call option and 0.471908 times the premium for the put option, but this is not the expected value of the option. There is no documented mispricing of three times or more. The premises for this analysis are that the completed close on September 9 of 2.57 exceeds the simple moving average of 20 days of 2.479 and the simple moving average of 50 days of 2.3148. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which is a measure of the magnitude of recent price changes, is 60.1984, the Average True Range, or ATR, which is a measure of volatility, is 0.0859326, the annualized Return on Variance, or RV, is 0.357765, and the 20-session return is +9.8291%. The prior 20-session range is 2.305 to 2.70. Combining these indicators describes an upward trend with positive momentum, but does not measure the option edge. The delayed price on September 10 of 2.555 is below the close on September 9, but still above the averages. The call option intrinsic breakeven is 2.81, which is above the recent high of 2.70, and the put option intrinsic breakeven is 2.32, which is near the low of 2.305. However, earnings could break either range, and untested levels cannot replace N9 coverage. No variant selected by indicators was traded or claimed to be validated. The arithmetic used to analyze the data is descriptive, but the trading inference is unsound without independent option history. The primary date for the earnings announcement is available at https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/, and the daily Systematic Investment Plan, or SIP, bars from 2022 to September 9 were used for indicators, excluding the partial data from September 10.