Stats

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, fresh926 SIP adjustment=all dailybars, release-close to next-session-close medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95; Oct16C2.5 catalog.50Sep10 plus.05/share assumedroundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; C5.05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10; P2.5.12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10. C2.5mappedmeanintrinsic1.109296xpremium excludesresidualtime,notactualoptionEV; no documented3xexpectedpayoff. Sep2issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+23days; defaultSep22RTHexit. Historical primaryURLs anddatequotes in R91306eventobservations, re-openedthisrun. Sources option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. Lag all indicators one session beforeentry: RSI14EWMalph1/14, SMA50, annualRV20samplelogstd*sqrt252. T3complete trainN6: belowSMA50N2mean+42.857143%,2wins;aboveN4mean-14.634146%,0wins(twoflat aftercost). RSI<50 selectsexactlysameN2; RSI>=50 sameN4. Correlations returnwithRSI-.702231,withRV+.306617,smalltraining-onlydescriptive. 2. Counterexample: twoindicators donotprovideindependentconfirmation; collinearpartitions andposthocfilter selectionmakethe100%smallgroupwinrateunreliable. Oneknown-calendarholdoutMarch2026below50wins33.986928%,premium74USDoversize;missingJune cannotvalidatecontrastingregime. 3. CurrentSep11RSI35.386979 andprice2.95<SMA503.5796 superficiallymatchwinnergroup, but thisdoesnotvalidatefullpremiumtail,feesorwholecontractrisk. Do notadopt filterorreplaceexistingoptioncoveragegate.

Edge test: nine issuer-dated AMC earnings Feb2024–Jun2026, SIP daily release-close to next-session close; median absolute5.543964%, mean-0.908716%. Sep11 S39.02, Oct16 C45 .30/P35 .40 catalog closes plus assumed.05/share roundtrip reserve require+16.222450%/-11.455664%, covered0/9 and1/9 (11.11%), below40%. Without reserve put2/9. No documented expected actual-option payout>=3xpremium. Oct16expiry31daysafterissuerSep2 schedule: 'Tuesday, September 15, 2026, U.S. Time, after the market closes.' https://investors.trip.com/node/15681/pdf ; defaultSep14RTHexit. Hurdles exceedmedian10.678486/5.911700pp, noholdexception. Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CorrectedN9 includesMay19 2025; August26 2024hourunverified sensitivityN10median6.067764%,0/10C1/10P. OldN8/S38.7/.32C/.48Pforecast retained separately. 1. Pre-releaseindicatorscomputedwithoutnextdayresponseforeachof9events. SpearmanRSIrho.483333 p.187470,momentum20rho.416667 p.264586,ATR/pricerho-.35 p.355820,aboveSMA50rho.606218 p.083533. Fourunadjustedexploratorycomparisons; nop-valuebelow.05evenbeforemultiplicity. No causalclaim ornewtechnicalfilter. 2. CurrentbelowSMA50statecouldsupportnegativeearningsresponsebutregimeinferencefrom9selecteddatedobservationsisweak; regulatorychangescanbreakcomparability. Addingpreselectedmissingquarteralreadychangesstatistics. Keepindicatorstudyseparatefromforecastholdoutanddonotchooseafilterfromknown2026outcomes. Conclusion: noquantifiedincrementalentryedge.

Edge test: ten issuer-dated scheduled AMC earnings March2024–June2026, daily pre-release close to next-session close, median absolute4.700378%, signed mean-3.027709%. At Sep11 S2.53, Oct16 K2.5 call .21(Sep11catalog) /put .16(Sep10catalog, stale) plus assumed .05/share roundtrip costs require +9.090909%/-9.486166%; both1/10=10%, below40%. Old frozenN9 remains1/9,median5.494505%; preserve it separately. No documented3x expectedoptionpayoff. Source option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-bars. Issuer Aug25 https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ says 'after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026'. Oct16expiry32daysafter; defaultSep11RTHexit already elapsed. Hurdles exceednewmedian4.390531/4.785788pp, noholdexception. Closes are not executable asks; intrinsic is not actualoptionPnL. 1. CompletedSep11dailySIPbaseline:20sessionreturn+9.051724%,RSI14WilderEWM56.263135,RV20samplelogannualized36.111156%,SMA20/50=2.501/2.3244,ATR20simpleTR=.08099. IndicatorhistorybeginsJan2023; computedpriorreleasecloseforeachAMCevent(noeventresponseinput). 2. Spearmanover10eventresponses:RSI rho.115152,p.751420;mom20rho.369697,p.293050;ATR%rho-.442424,p.200423;aboveSMA50rho.174078,p.630536. Fourexploratorycomparisons,nominalpvalues,nofilterchosenorclaimsignificance. AbovetrendN5mean-2.495014%,medianabs2.283105%,call/put0/5;belowN5mean-3.560405%,medianabs8.230453%,both1/5. Eachsubsample<8. 3. Currentpositive20daytrendcannotbeconvertedintoanearningscallwinprobability. Strongcountercase:newGermanmixmaychangefuturejumpdistribution; only3post2025yearendeventsandonepreannounced2025comparisoninsufficienttomeasureit. Regimedivisiondescriptive,notcausalregressionornewentryrule.

Edge test: 11 issuer-dated morning earnings Jan2024–Jul2026, US ADR daily prior-close to release-close; median absolute5.864627%, range-8.474903% to+11.444479%. Sep11S11.13, Oct30C13 .45 needs+21.293801%,P9.5 .27 needs-17.520216%,including assumed.05/share roundtrip costs: both0/11 (and0/11openinggaps), below40%. CatalogNov20C13 .49Sep10 ->.63Sep11 exceeds51.0594premiumcap; Oct30P10 .52 alsoovercap. No documented3xexpectedoptionpayoff. ExpiryOct30eightdaysafterissuer '22 October 2026'; defaultOct21RTHexit, noholdexception becausehurdlesexceedmedian15.429174/11.655589pp. Sources https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporations-financial-calendar-for-2026/ ; option_contracts ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . Closesnotexecutableasks; intrinsicmappingnotactualoptionPnL. 1. Descriptivejointfilterfixedaspriorclose>SMA200 ANDRSI14between50and70;currentpasses. Historicalmatched2024Jul18/Oct17,2025Apr24,2026Jan29/Apr23 =5events,train3/holdout2. All5stillbelowaffordablecall/puthurdles;cannotreplace11eventswithafavorable subset. 2. CombinationmaydescribeamomentumregimebutN5<8andselectionafterseeingreturnswouldoverfit;thresholdsnotoptimized/adopted. Currenttrendpositivedoesnotcancelthebinarypricedistance. MissingFXandoptionIVregimeareexplicitlimitations.

Edge test: CAG nine issuer-dated morning earnings Jul2024–Jul2026 median absolute2.064410%; Sep11S14.60, Oct9C15.5 catalog.35Sep10/currenttrade.20Sep11 requires+8.904110%/+7.876712% incl assumed.05cost,0/9 both. P14.5 catalog.44 requires-4.041096%,2/9; current.60 requires-5.136986%,1/9 and60premium>51.0594absolute cap. LW eight issuer-dated morning events Jul2024–Jul2026 median13.153864%; S47.85,Oct16C57.5 catalog.35/current.38 requires+21.003135/+21.065831%,0/8. P40 catalog.50/current.55 requires-17.554859/-17.659352%,3/8(37.5%) and55premium>cap. Mean mapped intrinsic LW P40 1.498726USD/share =2.724957x currentpremium,2.497877x assumedallincost; NOT actual optionexpectancy. No40%pass or documented3xexpectedpayoff. LW omittedOct1 2024 due releasehour ambiguity; addingOct2reaction yields3/9 andmedian10.017371%,alsofails. Dates: CAG Aug31issuer 'Wednesday, September 30, 2026' morning before09:30ETQ&A https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; LW Sep8issuer 'October 6, 2026' approximately08ETrelease/09ETcall https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases . Expiries9/10daysafter; default exitsSep29/Oct5RTH. Historical originals recorded25518+ and25563+; sources option_contracts plus https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Closes not executableasks. 1. Combinepricebelow20/200SMA andRSI35.52; this is neitheroversold<30 norprovenearningsdirection. 2. Nineevents insufficientforfittingjointconditionalfilter; donotsubselectlosersafterseeingoutcome. Fullsampleentrygate retained. Priorexpectationweakcashmayfavorputs; counterexampleimprovedguidancecanrallydespiteweaktrailingcash. Requireprospectiveoutcome andcostedoptionhistorybefore changingrule.

Frozen edge: BB Sep10 S7.54; Oct2C8 close.40 requires +11.405836%, covers3/12 (25%); Oct2P7 close.32 requires -11.405836%, covers2/12 (16.67%). Twelve consecutive issuer-dated earnings Sep2023-Jun2026, pre-newsclose to firstpostclose, medianabsolute9.987505%; first8train,last4holdout. Neither current40% gate nor documented3xexpectedpayout passes. Issuer Sep10 says 'Thursday, September 24, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET.': https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954 . Oct2expiry8dayslater; defaultSep23RTHexit, hurdle exceedsmedian1.418331pp. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts Sep10 closes; historical issuer quotes/sources observations24113–24126 and24585–24596. 1.925SIPall dailybars throughSep10; pre-event features: belowSMA20&50, WilderEWMA14 RSI<40, RV20<RV60 (dailylogsamplevol annualsqrt252). Current7.54 below8.0955/8.968,RSI38.04722,RV55.21286%<76.30777%. Allthree true now. 2. Combinedfilter at pre-newsclose selects2first8,0last4; selectedtrainingcall/put0/2 each. Trendonly3train/0holdout; RSI<40 two/zero. Volcontraction4train/3holdout, C1/P1 ineachsample. Noheldoutconjunction means unavailable, not0% measured probability. 3. Thispre-news feature study describesconditionsatshock, not information already known nine sessions beforetheupcomingevent. Separatebacktest evaluatesfiltersbeforeactualentry. Strongcounterexampleoversoldstocksbounce; lowRVcanprecedejump. Multipleoverlappingfilters andpreviouslyviewedholdoutpreventclaimsindependentalpha. 4. Validation caughtinitialRSI missing1+RS; correctedbeforemeasurementrecords, nowrange0..100 and frozenvalueassertionspass. Earlierprovisionalcommentary supersededbycorrectedobservations24584–24599. No position from indicatorconfluence.