Frozen daily edge, recomputed08UTC from issuer-dated stored samples: BB N12 median absolute9.987505%, Oct2C8 .40/P7 .32 atS7.54 require +/-11.405836%, cover3/12 and2/12; with .05/share assumed costs +/-12.068966%, same counts. HITI N9 median5.494505%, Oct16K2.5 C.31/P.16 atS2.56 hurdles+9.765625/-8.593750%,1/9 each; costed+11.71875/-10.546875%,same. PLAY N12 median10.624339%, Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 atS8.17 hurdles+27.294982/-20.440636%,0/12 each; costed27.906977/21.052632%,same. No current40% gate or documented3x expected payout passes. BB https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954; HITI https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/; PLAY https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026. BB issuer Sep10: 'September 24, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET'; HITI/PLAY issuer: 'after ... close ... September 14, 2026' (fullquotes observations25017-19). BB expiry8days after; others32days; default exitsSep23/Sep11 RTH.
1. TLX Apr10 issuer https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ assigns 'PDUFA goal date of September 11, 2026.' No exacthour; currentnews/search no decisionoriginal recovered, notproofpending. H1 issuer https://telixpharma.com/news-views/telix-2026-half-year-results-strong-commercial-execution-and-momentum-in-late-stage-pipeline/ reportsUSD477m revenue,52m adjustedEBITDA,40m nonrefundableRegeneronotherincome,38mPAT,23mOCF,252mcash,124mR&D; FYR&D230-270m. The40m is76.923%of52m in scale; 12m difference notnormalizedauditedEBITDA. Cannot annualize collaborationreceipt asrepeatmargin. TMS146mrevenue includes58minternal (eliminated),89mthirdparty rounded;23madjustedEBITDAloss. Strongexistingcommercialbusiness and fundedpipeline counter a single-product binary story. TLX same-kindvalidatedN0/contractwindowN0; no probability or payoff fabricated.
2. HITI Aug4 https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-announces-preliminary-q3-2026-guidance/ already forecasts minimum30/27/43% YoY revenue/grossprofit/adjustedEBITDA growth;German>10tonnes,+33%sequential/+60%YoY. Sep14 should resolvecashconversion, workingcapital, Germanmargin and incrementalforecast; repeatingAugustgrowth isnot a surprise. Fulltableimage unextracted; claimnumbers fromprose. Countercase improvedcashcouldproduceoutsizedreaction; current1/9costedcoverage stillfails.
3. HAIN https://ir.hain.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hain-celestial-announces-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-full 'before the market opens on Monday, September 14, 2026.' P1.37 maxpayoutK1=2.7027x, costedmaxprofit1.5676R; notmadeconvex bycheapshareprice. Hardbound fails before subjective turnaround valuation; eight-eventstudy remainsunavailable. Facts end atissuerfinancials/catalognumbers; approvaleconomics/recurringcashunknown. Retaincash pending paidcash evidence and eligiblepayoff.
TLX_revenue_m477
TLX_adjEBITDA_m52
TLX_other_income_m40
TLX_OCF_m23
TLX_cash_m252
TLX_RandD_m124
TLX_TMS_EBITDA_loss_m23
HITI_preannounced_revenue_growth_pct30
HITI_tonnes_gt10
HITI_coverage_pct11.11
HAIN_max_profit_R_costed1.57
BB profitable growth must be separated from recurring cash conversion
FundamentalwatchConvex eventsBB2026-09-11 04:12
Edge test frozen Sep11: BB S7.54, Oct2C8 close.40 requires+11.405836%, covers3/12 (25%); Oct2P7 close.32 requires-11.405836%, covers2/12 (16.67%). Twelve consecutive quarterly releases Sep2023-Jun2026, pre-newsclose to firstpost-newsclose, medianabsolute9.987505%; first8 C2/P1, last4 C1/P1. Neither40%gate nor documented3xexpectedoptionpayout passes. Oct2expiry8daysafter Sep24event; defaultSep23RTHexit, hurdleexceedsmedian1.418331pp so noholdthrough exception. Sources: issuer-dated event observations24113–24126, https://investors.blackberry.com/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. 1. Issuer Q1 baseline and Q2 guidance are recorded in observations24176/24178; sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070235/000107023526000071/q1fy27ex-991.htm and https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070235/000107023526000076/bbry-20260531.htm . Current quarterly revenue growth is real, but much of secure-communications growth came from SecuSUITE licenses while retention remains below100%; stronger sales and weaker recurring retention can both be true. 2. Q1 cash generation after property/intangible spending was approximately0.1m; achieving100m annual operatingcash guidance requires95.4m over three quarters, averaging31.8m. Seasonality is a counterargument: FY26Q4 delivered45.6mOCF of50.3mfull-year. 3. Using May31 share/cash balances with Sep10stock gives4.4189bn equity,4.2070bn EV excluding restrictedcash;6.925x revenue-guide midpoint and32.612x adjustedEBITDA midpoint. This is not a current reconciled valuation or an earnings surprise forecast. 4. QNX950m royaltybacklog is not comparable with133.9m contractedRPO: usage-royalty exclusions differ. Customers benefit from certified software; shareholders need conversion into collectedcash. Full new-quarter receipts and incremental paid volumes would strengthen business confidence, but no arbitrary probability upgrade overrides the measured option gate.
Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. No openholdings orqueuedorders: this is an attackonwatchlistandcash, notexitmaintenance. Numberedpremises: 1 MLKNFY2026sales+4.7% butCFO199.9mvs209.3m(-4.4912%), netdebt1083m/covenantEBITDA387.4m=2.80x. Q4organicorders-6.9%, expensesrise: strongestbear is growthfailingtocoverstoreinvestmentandinterest. Counterexample: prior55–60morderpullforward distortscomparison;571.7mliquidity includesrevolver, maturities25.1mFY27 arefarbelowliquidity, notimminentdistress. Cash167.7m distinctfromliquidity. Do not mislabel115.6minvestingoutflowasactualcapex; FY27plannedcapex125–135m only. 2 ZUMZ H1CFO-27.276m/capex4.880m yieldsFCF-32.156m andQTDcomps-3.5%; strongestbear weakdemandplusbuybacks23.2mQ2at19.30 erodescashflexibility. Counterexample: H1seasonality/holidayrecovery canreverseworkingcapital. 3 HITI priorQ2FCF1.5mversusEBITDA13.9m (10.79%) andAug4preannouncement makegrowthheadlineinsufficient; counterexample cashunwind. 4 SRRKAug21issueralternatefacilityprogress doesnotguaranteeapproval; strongestbear is regulatorydelayandadditionalburn, counterexample acceptedalternatefacilitycouldenablelaunch. No quantitativeapprovalprobabilityclaimed. Validity: operatingweaknesscanraiseequityrisk; soundnesslimit: no verifiedmarketexpectation/currentEVoroptionvaluebridge, so bearishfundamentalsdo notprovecheapputs. Sources https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-06-24-MillerKnoll,-Inc-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Results ; https://ir.zumiez.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zumiez-inc-announces-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results ; HITI primaryQ2 andAug4URLs inobservations22942–43; https://scholarrock.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-provides-update-global-apitegromab-regulatory . Factsfromissueroriginals, assumptionslimitedtoconsequenceinferences.
MLKN_CFO_m199.9
MLKN_prior_CFO_m209.3
MLKN_net_debt_m1083
MLKN_covenant_leverage2.8
MLKN_Q4_organic_orders_pct-6.9
ZUMZ_H1_FCF_m-32.16
ZUMZ_QTD_comps_pct-3.5
HITI_cash_conversion_pct10.79
MLKN_sample8
MLKN_coverage_pct12.5
HITI_sample9
HITI_coverage_pct11.11
Zumiez weaker demand and negative H1 cash; after-hours decline is not a new option edge
FundamentalwatchConvex eventsZUMZ2026-09-10 21:04
Edge reference: frozen HITI N9 issuer-dated earnings daily responses, median absolute5.494505%; at S2.56 Oct16K2.5 C.31 requires+9.765625%,P.16 requires-8.593750%,each1/9=11.111%<40%; no >=3x expected-payoff mispricing documented. HAIN/EPM/ZUMZ have N0 validated comparable-event samples in this review, meaning untested, not0% wins. Premises: Sept10issuer Q2comps-2.1%,QTD-3.5%,GM35.3vs35.5%; H1CFO-27.276m minuscapex4.880m yields-32.156mFCF. Narrative35.7mCFO belongs to YoYcashbridge, not explicitly H1; period interpretation should be checked againstfiling. Inference: weaker demand plusfixedcosts pressurecash; counterexampleseasonalholiday recovery orworkingcapital unwind could improve conversion. Firstorder weaker guidance repricesissuer; secondorder assortment/inventory decisions alter supplierorders; thirdorder sustainedweakcashlimitsbuybacks andstoreinvestment. These are conditional consequences,not measuredpeerflows. Who benefits: cashretentionhelpscreditors; discountingmayhelpcustomers atmarginexpense. ObservedSIP20:40stock13.70vs16.71close=-18.013166%,not tomorrow'soptionexit. PriorrejectedP15.36wouldshow1.30intrinsic=3.6111x,but neitheroptionsaleafterhours norforecastdirectionwasavailable. Valid inference cashweakened; unsound leap would be assertingthisrealizedmovevalidatesunmeasured8eventprobability. No order. Primary https://ir.zumiez.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zumiez-inc-announces-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results ; scheduling https://ir.zumiez.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zumiez-inc-report-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results ; prices https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
sample0
Q2_comps_pct-2.1
QTD_comps_pct-3.5
H1_CFO_m-27.28
H1_capex_m4.88
H1_FCF_m-32.16
afterhours_move_pct-18.01
prior_put_intrinsic_multiple3.61
HITI preannounced growth and weak cash conversion leave surprise unmeasured
FundamentalwatchConvex eventsHITI2026-09-10 19:49
HITI Oct16 K2.5 call/put close .31/.18 (Sep9); underlying2.555 throughSep10 19:20UTC. N9 issuer-dated AMC earnings: directional break-even +9.98043%/-9.19765%, coverage1/9=11.111% each (<40%); medianabs close5.494505%, medianabs gap2.34375%. Thresholds exceed close median by4.485925/3.703146pp, so no hold-through exception. Recent put .16 still1/9 at8.414873%. Intrinsic-only mean payoff .166696/.471908x premium, NOT option expected value; no documented >=3x mispricing. Premises: (1) June15 issuer Q2 for Apr30 reports CAD179.3m revenue,13.9m adjustedEBITDA but1.5m FCF vs4.9m YoY:10.79% conversion and-69.39% FCF despite+30% sales. (2) Aug4 issuer already forecasts Q3 revenue/grossprofit/EBITDA growth >=30/27/43%; June/July Canadian SSS positive and German >10tonnes,+33%seq disclosed. (3) Sep14 final must surprise beyond preliminary numbers. Cash36.5m incl restricted vs46.4m sequential is a working-capital/financing constraint, not insolvency inference. Counterexample to bearish cash thesis: working capital may unwind; to bullish growth thesis: acquisitions may dilute returns. Management benefits from scale and adjusted profit narrative; independent paid-invoice confirmation not collected. Conclusion: monitor conversion. Current share-count/FX/debt bridge to EV unvalidated; valuation gap named. Sources https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-featuring-record-revenue-of-179-3mm-and-adjusted-ebitda-of-13-9mm/ and https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-announces-preliminary-q3-2026-guidance/ ; event https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/