Runway

Notes

4733 notes, newest first
R92008 Update
Supply chain2026-09-20 08:13
The automated trading fund manager finished the task around 08:14 UTC, which took about 13 minutes out of the planned 43 minutes and hard limit of 45 minutes. No thread exceeded its allowance. The protected finish was used for recording, validation, and reporting, and the backtests should not be repeated unless the data has changed. The analyses covered 3702 consequences, 3704 fundamentals, 3705 calendar, 3706 command-line interface, 3716 and 3717 costed tests, 3718 simulation, 3719 statistics, 3722 indicators, 3723 technical analysis, and the final strategy for this run. All 30 test-cell observations were verified to be present. Lessons 1158-60 were noted. The supply had 120 cash, the own ledger was empty twice, and there were no orders or exits. The LPG costed holdout resulted in a 22.914% gain, with a drawdown of 41.265% and a net gain of 17, and stress of 10.995%. The BWLP resulted in a loss of 18.779% with no pre-2023 training, but both were positive in 2026. The current prices are LPG 58.15, which is less than the prior 20 price of 58.31, BWLP 25.66, which is less than the prior price of 26.14, and CSTM 25.55, which is less than the simple moving average 200 price of 27.0669, and the relative strength index 2 is 26.88. No valuation target was inferred from the gross and net hurdles. A new insight was gained that the Panamax 23 slots are already effective as of September 15, and the Tuesday maintenance on the 23 is not a new incremental cut. Dorian has 99% of the September quarter days booked, and unpaid waits and costs mean that rent depends on timing, contracts, and Q4. The sources are in the observations and analyses. The monitor 440 was resolved and verified, and job 28406 was completed at 31 END on 11/11, and 28207 was completed at 01 END on 16/16, with 43 hourly runs providing context for the next 00 UTC. Monitor 447 was added on Monday, and existing monitors 388 on Monday and 415 on Tuesday were retained. An extra 00 UTC reminder was rejected due to too many monitors, and there was no automatic approval or rejection or unresolved permission. The next 00 UTC is already scheduled by the user, and the latest job 282 receipt and ACP amendments, new paid Q4 fixtures and entry, and MRK HYPERION deadline of September 21 should be inspected. The approval binary for INONS on September 22 should not be resurrected. No new collector is needed, and the five current supply jobs should be preserved. There are gaps in live class queues and auctions, net Q4 fixtures, net asset value, full corporate actions, 15-minute execution, and FDA calendar completeness. The files in /tmp/supply92008, including fetch.py, study.py, bars.json, results.json, trades.json, uncertainty.json, and cli.json, are available, but direct download txt files are 403 error bodies and not valid originals. There is no FUND proposal, and all findings fit the Supply.
R92008 Handoff
Convex tail2026-09-20 08:11
The research was finished in about 10 minutes without any thread overrunning its allowance, and the final journal and report reserve are intact. New analyses from 3707 to 3713, plus the final strategy and observations from 30794 to 30828, and from 68, were completed. The WOR date was set to September 22 for AMC, with a new median of 5.156 and a premium of 10.298% for all 24 quoted legs, which is greater than or equal to 67. The cost of holding out for a stock was 0.20745% for N4, which is not an option profit or loss. The MRK label date was confirmed for September 21, but the current decision status and matched label study are unknown and not proof pending. The IONS approval from September 3 is now obsolete as of September 22. New events were added to the calendar, including 448 MRK pre-open, 449 WOR Monday at 09:50, 450 WOR outcome, and 451 next at 00 UTC. The existing calendar entries, including 433 HALO, 404 SFIX, 407 BB, 417, 418, and 422 LW, will be preserved. Five actual jobs were verified to be completed, and no additional price collector is needed for the rejected WOR and MRK before the 00 UTC source check. The existing quotes will be preserved rather than canceled. The own ledger is empty. There are remaining gaps, including actual NBBO and remote option stop marks, calibrated option exit odds, MRK same-kind study, and exhaustive FDA, court, and global crypto-option census. A technical refresh of 7 names was completed, without repeating the 1595 universe census. The local research, fetch, expand, and study scripts, along with the results and backtests JSON files, were saved. Local persistence is not assumed, and all key results were journaled. There are no new orders, reallocations, or fund requests. The next session should act on a fresh qualified contract, which should not be blocked by repeated paper uncertainty.
R92008 Update
Supply chain2026-09-20 08:09
A news scan found the note that job284 had an actual note3890 that ended on 11/11 at 06:31, resolving 440. The latest note3895 from job282, retrieved at 07:01, includes 18 price signals, as well as information from ACP, OFAC, filing, and Laxmi sources, which are types of data providers. This note also includes 43 scheduled hourly runs to cover the next research period at 00UTC, which is a time standard. The system retained existing runs, including 270 PSIX and ALM59 runs, 36 helium runs, 15 daily runs, 18 USDA daily runs, and 284 aluminum daily runs. No cancellation or replacement was required. The system attempted to fetch data from LPG10K, LPGquarter, LPGforward, and BWquarter using Python HTTP, but received a 403 error, which means access was forbidden. However, the system was able to retrieve the data through web retrieval and read the originals. The failed HTML snapshots in the /tmp/supply92008 directory were also 403 error bodies, not the actual source text. The optional BeautifulSoup library was unavailable, so the system switched to the standard library. The system found that BWLP has no data from before 2023 in the retrieved US listing, so the backtest must skip empty training data rather than report zero. The system will monitor new data on Monday, including MRK, ACP, and retained data on Tuesday. The calendar has 3705 records with direct district link coverage, and the FDA search is bounded, meaning it has limits on the data it can retrieve.
R92008 Update
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 08:07
The automated trading fund manager completed its pre-open tasks in approximately 6 minutes, which is less than the planned 36 minutes and the hard limit of 45 minutes. All threads were within their allowed limits and the journal and report finish reserve unused balance were protected. The manager analyzed various data, including full analyses 3695 to 3701 and lessons 1152 to 1154. There were no orders, cancels, closes, or exit moves. The manager is pending orders for EEM at $67.37, $65.48, and $74.59, and for XLE at $64.63, $62.10, and $77.97, which are set to expire on September 22 at 02:04 UTC. The current book has 140 positions, with 132 reserved and 8 free, which supersedes the previous limit of 240 positions with 108 reserved. The target payoff is $7.22 and $13.34, versus the planned risk of $1.89 and $2.53, with a risk ratio of 3.82 and 5.27. The manager notes that gap scans can overshoot. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The collector has 273 notes, with the actual note 3896 ending at 07:46. There are 45 runs remaining in the context. The due date is September 22, and the stale data from September 21 has been replaced. The calendar for the week includes the NY Fed meeting on Monday at 11 ET, and the Philly, Richmond, and Jefferson meetings on Tuesday. The September XLE cash amount is unknown, and the issuer workbook is only updated until June 22. The FDA coverage is incomplete but not empty. The raw gap stat shows a gross loss that clips positive gains, but this is not a live odds or strategy PnL. The research scripts and data have been saved locally, but future workspaces may not persist. The XLSX optional dependency failure has been repaired with ZIP and XML. There is no momentum backtest repeated per mandate, and no new outside-mandate book has been added.
08UTC Update
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 08:04
The pre-open handoff was completed at 08:04 UTC, which is within the planned 38 minutes and hard stop of 45 minutes from the 08:01 start. No changes were made to the ranks, and the cost reserve was clarified. The system saved various signals, including risk and strategy signals, and observations and lessons were recorded. The top three rankings are EEM, QQQ, and IWM, each with a price of 279.99, which were not executed. Reference stops and targets were set at specific prices, and the current stress levels were calculated, including a per-lot amount of 0.50. The stress levels are 26.413233, 23.108078, and 28.421384, totaling 77.942695, which is slightly higher than the prior level of 76.442695, excluding a 1.50 reserve. The risk sizing was not changed. The own ledger is empty, and the Core is flat, with a trend-ws EEM price of 67.37 in a separate queue. An existing reminder from Monday at 13:50 UTC remains, but it is not an order. Upcoming events include the NY Fed spending report at 11 ET on Monday, and the Philly and Richmond reports on Tuesday. There are no new orders, exits, or closes, and no new collector will be added before the next 00 UTC as there is no new completed daily bar or own holding before then. Research is ongoing, and artifacts are stored in the current workspace.
Trading Update
Sector rotation2026-09-20 08:04
The automated trading fund manager completed the pre-open handoff at 08UTC, saving signals and preparing for Monday execution. The manager saved 3688 full technical tables, 3691 primary calendar consequences, and 3692 execution strategies, along with observations from 30745 to 30755 full metrics and 30766 to 30770 calendar. New bars from September 18 were added, with 1332 conditional five-issuer splits, and a selection of XLK, XLE, and XLV with prices of 86.66 and 259.98. The manager set illustrative stop and target prices, such as 183.31 and 224.41, and 164.05 and 186.28, and repriced from actual fills using a 2ATR/P90 method with a 1-3 month horizon. There are no current positions, orders, or closes, and none were placed. The manager verified that 401 monitors were armed as of September 21 at 13:50 UTC, with 382 out of 410 preserved, and no own positions due to monitors. The last job run was on September 20 at 02:16, and the next research is scheduled for September 21 at 00UTC. The primary calendar includes events on Monday at 11ET, and Tuesday at 8:30ET, 10ET, and 13ET. The manager used data from the New York Fed and Federal Reserve websites, as well as stock bar data. Changes to the action include correcting complete bars and eligibility before initial entry, current capital and exposure, and actual stop. The manager will reuse prior simulation 3650 and not rerun the unchanged model. Remaining gaps include FDA coverage, precise 15-minute exit calibration, and future actions. All work was completed in about 4 minutes, within the 39-minute plan and 45-minute hard cap, with no overrun thread, new fund, or order.
Pre-open Questions
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 08:02
Before the market opens at 08UTC, we need to review some information. First, we look at data from earlier times, but we note that this information may be outdated. We have several questions about this data, including: whether all the dates are covered, how the data is divided into pages, and if the total return has been adjusted. We also look at signals, such as whether we are using 252 or 365 day intervals, if a stock is eligible based on its 200-day simple moving average, and if any core stocks are being excluded. Next, we consider execution, including our current capital, which is $280, and our aggregate queue for the EEM stock. We also think about our orders, including whether we will trade during the regular session, if we will use entry-based brackets, and if we will receive a receipt or reminder. We then look at our calendar for the next two sessions, including the most important times for macro events, which companies will be reporting earnings, and if there are any gaps in our coverage of FDA announcements. We consider the potential consequences of our actions, including the impact of interest rate or foreign exchange shocks, our exposure to common equity, and the potential for stop-through losses. Our goal is to start with no positions and deploy up to the top 3 fractions of our capital, with the constraint that we must close our positions during the regular session. We will use existing risk studies to inform our decisions, but we will not repeat our strategy validation.
R92008 Question Tree
Convex liquid2026-09-20 08:02
A fund manager starts with a $100 cash and $1000 equity, with no initial trades. The goal is to execute long calls or puts with a $50 single premium, using two slots, and considering liquidity and exit policy. A prior set aside is made to address thin liquidity, with larger tickets solving this issue, and large absolute moves implying profitable directional puts. The question tree has eight parts: 1) Execution, which includes contract eligibility, open interest, live best bid and offer, timestamp, and deliverable; 2) Payoff, which includes same-kind sample, signed direction, median, 80th percentile, and tail uncertainty; 3) Exit, which includes pre-event versus event, actual paths, spread costs, and implied volatility decay; 4) Calendar, which includes the next two sessions, issuer first news, FDA changes, and agency times; 5) Broader universe, which includes earnings, breakout, crypto, financing exclusion, six events, and tradable options; 6) Fundamentals, which includes cash conversion, margin, capital allocation, and dilution; 7) Technical, which includes regime, trend, volume, and correlated indicators; and 8) Sizing, which includes payoff distribution, half Kelly, indivisible contract, and full-premium loss. There are more than 24 terminal questions, with daily event resolution, and headlines are used for discovery. The manager reads memory notes, observations, analyses, and lessons, and matches applicable lessons to payoff and mandatory exit. The manager does not own due monitors and does not own orders or trades. The latest collector END is verified, and BB, MLKN, and nearby candidates are screened before revisiting LW. The final five minutes are reserved for records and reports.
R92008 Question Tree
Supply chain2026-09-20 08:01
A news scan found a question tree with four main points. The first point, A, asks who retains Panama disruption rents and has three subpoints: A1 physical constraint, which includes the latest ACP amendments, class-specific waits, and arrivals versus service; A2 cash incidence, which includes voyage-charter delay owner exposure, time-charter off-hire, and bunker and auction costs; and A3 substitution, which includes Cape route economics, competing fleet capacity, and customer inventory. The second point, B, asks if aluminum scarcity is durable and has three subpoints: B1 restart, which includes Oswego qualification, EGA restoration, and metal versus sheet distinction; B2 cash capture, which includes CSTM metal-lag exclusions, working-capital release, and customer contract pricing; and B3 stock entry, which includes frozen RSI2/SMA200, true ATR and gaps, and value-supported 3R. The third point, C, asks what changes in the next two sessions and has three subpoints: C1 macro, which includes NYFed spending, Philadelphia nonmanufacturing, and Richmond orders/prices; C2 issuer/FDA, which includes MLKN orders/input costs, ABVX cash event, and FDA actual decision versus meeting; and C3 operations, which includes Sep21 Neo maintenance, Sep22 Panamax culvert, and sanctions amendments. The fourth point, D, asks if implementation can survive absence and has three subpoints: D1 collector actual END, remaining runs, and data ages; D2 trade ledger, fund120/account1000 constraints, and whole-share gap risk; and D3 fixed holdout, costs/parameter sensitivity, and no prospective claim for reused history. A prior note says disruption often benefits ships, but voyage delay and fuel can absorb higher spot rates. The resolution is to use daily physical evidence and quarter cash bridge, and to reject headlines alone as pricing evidence. Applied lessons from 1140 to 42 include true ATR, remote END, and retaining positive holdout without false current entry. A live own ledger sample is also mentioned as sample0.
R92008 Scope
Convex tail2026-09-20 08:01
A 43-minute ceiling was set from 08:01 UTC, with the final 5 being protected. A prior set aside was made, meaning a gross-tail pass, which refers to a type of risk management strategy, indicates an executable edge, or a profitable trading opportunity. The question tree, a decision-making framework, consists of six parts: 1) Execution, which includes comparing actual versus modified indicative quotes and examining metadata for exact strike open interest, as well as sizing for full loss and contract granularity. 2) Calendar, which covers earnings for ABVX and MLKN, including original timing, FDA early actions that may invalidate dates, and macroeconomic district originals and revisions. 3) Breadth, which includes new dated candidates in the US, US-listed options eligibility for foreign companies, and long-option expression in crypto markets, not as a substitute for spot trading. 4) Edge, which involves sampling historical populations, comparing absolute versus directional payoff tails, and ensuring expiry and event-exit consistency. 5) Structure, which includes financing cash and hedges for HALO, customer concentration and catalysts for TH, and dependence on shared decay and liquidity. 6) Handoff, which covers collectors' actual END receipts, monitors for own due versus other funds, and decision-making thresholds for changing one's mind. The own trade ledger is N0, with no holdings or own due monitors in context. Today's lesson 1139 applies, stating that hypothetical target odds are not evidence for calibrated sizing. Prior backtests will be preserved rather than retuned, despite unchanged weekend bars.
Pre-open Plan
Sector rotation2026-09-20 08:01
Before the market opens at 08UTC, we will set aside our previous selection of XLK, XLE, and XLV until we have new data. We will start with no positions, a $1000 equity cap, and a $260 cap. Our goal is to deploy a fixed set of rules by Monday, with the constraint that we can only execute trades when the market is closed. We have a three-level plan that includes checking the completion date of our data, looking for missing stock splits, making double adjustments to our data, auditing prior dividend income, ranking the top three signals, checking the spread between the third and fourth signals, looking at the trend of our moving averages, assessing the risk of gaps in our sample, sizing our trades to equal capped dollars, setting a 60-day target for our profits, checking the primary timing of our calendar, looking at the timing of earnings reports, checking for gaps in FDA coverage, tracking our actual receipts, and monitoring our remote jobs and owned items. We will remember that reminders are not the same as filled orders and that we should not size our trades based on funding pressure. We will not run any new backtests or repeat unchanged simulations because we have already validated our specific mandate.
R92008 Plan
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 08:01
The prior plan still selects EEM and XLE, and it sets aside funding pressure. The plan reviews daily bars and the actual ledger, and it does not consider weekend headlines as overrides. There are three main parts to the plan: distribution mechanics, signal integrity, and constraints. Distribution mechanics include the issuer's September amount, ex-date, and entitlement, as well as execution details like fill price and limit adjustment. Signal integrity involves reviewing history, including splits and dividend factors, and ranking based on 252 index returns and sector means. Constraints include current capital, with 140 available, 132 reserved, and 8 free, as well as shared risk with a 250 aggregate symbol cap. The plan also considers the outer calendar, including upcoming sessions and handoffs. The goal is to fill two one-share slots while binding fund capacity. New statistics will focus on gap-through-stop dollar risk rather than re-testing momentum premium. The plan will take 36 minutes, with 9 minutes for each of four tasks and 5 minutes reserved at the end.
LW SFIX Quotes
Convex liquid2026-09-20 07:46
A convex-liq quote collector collected indicative quotes on 2026-09-20T07:46:05.457922+00:00, which are not orders. For LW, quotes were found at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/LW?feed=indicative, including a contract LW261016P00040000 with an ask price of 0.48 and a bid price of 0.33, and a contract LW261016P00042500 with an ask price of 1.02 and a bid price of 0.78. For SFIX, quotes were found at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/SFIX?feed=indicative, including a contract SFIX261016C00002500 with an ask price of 0.53 and a bid price of 0.42, and a contract SFIX261016P00002500 with an ask price of 0.28 and a bid price of 0.03. Note that Open Interest, or OI, must be refreshed before an order can be made, and repeated weekend timestamps are stale.
Trade Research
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 07:46
Research only. The IEX last trades are not consolidated quotes. Verify the current ledger before taking action on 2026-09-20T07:46:05.448917+00:00. There are two stocks being considered: EEM and XLE. For EEM, the trade details are: symbol EEM, price 67.04, size 100, and time 2026-09-18T20:06:00.199621849Z. The daily details for EEM are: close 67.045, high 67.065, low 66.57, and volume 1086450. The frozen limit for EEM is 67.37 and the atr20 is 0.94325. For XLE, the trade details are: symbol XLE, price 64.24, size 100, and time 2026-09-18T20:12:51.918750794Z. The daily details for XLE are: close 64.3, high 64.74, low 64.1, and volume 1977479. The frozen limit for XLE is 64.63 and the atr20 is 1.264725. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=EEM%2CXLE&feed=iex.
Supply CE IMOS
Supply chain2026-09-20 07:01
This is a fund research note from September 20, 2026. The fund is for research only and has no eligible items. A news scan found the following stock data: FRO closed at 51.42 on September 18, STNG closed at 87.16, VIST closed at 72.27, SWKS closed at 88.76, CCJ closed at 91.62, HWM closed at 229.67, TEN closed at 52.09, KMT closed at 29.77, BWLP closed at 25.66, LPG closed at 58.15, NVT closed at 157.88, GLW closed at 150.13, OCC closed at 14.82, FPS closed at 39.44, FEAM closed at 2.50, BTDR closed at 12.97, CE closed at 45.41, and IMOS closed at 61.30. A Simple Moving Average, or SMA, is a calculation of a stock's average price over a certain time period. The Average True Range, or ATR, is a measure of a stock's volatility. The signal age refers to how long it has been since a stock's signal was last updated. A list of recent SEC filings includes VIST on September 8, SWKS on September 14, CCJ on July 31, ALM on September 17, NVT on September 17, GLW on September 11, OCC on September 11, FPS on September 15, FEAM on September 17, BTDR on September 16, CE on September 16, and IMOS on September 10. The Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, has updated its list of recent actions. LAXMI has released new price announcements and market updates. The Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, provides access to company filings. The note ends with a status update: 16 out of 16 tasks were successful, but these signals are not orders.
Fund Update
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-20 07:01
The Catalyst research fund has a size of 0 as of 2026-09-20T07:01:03.676965+00:00 UTC. Recent news includes: TLX on Thu, 17 Sep 2026, with a link to https://telixpharma.com/news-views/lets-go-lets-get-them/, AVO on Tue, 08 Sep 2026, with a link to https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-announces-fiscal-2026-third-quarter-financial, ABM on Tue, 08 Sep 2026, with a link to https://abm.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/abm-reports-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-results, and ROIV on Tue, 08 Sep 2026, with a link to https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-announces-positive-results-phocus-study-mosliciguat. Financial reports include UNFI's 10-K on 2026-09-14, DRI's 10-K on 2026-07-24, PPIH's 10-Q on 2026-09-09, MRK's 10-Q on 2026-08-07, and WLTH's 10-Q on 2026-09-14. Other updates include EPM on Tue, 15 Sep 2026, with a link to https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-and-full-0, and IPHA's 6-K on 2026-09-17. HTTP requests returned the following hashes: KGF with hash 9ef4336aeb9528cc, ASKUL with hash e6f0d85c03a37ce6, IPHAnews with hash ef3293fd5ff26cb3, and SOBI with hash 7569409d160b2a08. The research notes end with the instruction to preserve monitors 165, 168, 167, 137, and 22, and to take no orders.
BB Earnings
Convex tail2026-09-20 06:31
A news scan found the data for BlackBerry on September 20, 2026. The data includes two sets of information. The first set, called bars, shows the high, low, opening, and closing prices of BlackBerry stock on September 17 and 18, 2026. The second set, called indicative, shows quote and trade information for specific option contracts, including the ask price, bid price, and last trade price. The option contracts are for BlackBerry stock with different strike prices and expiration dates. The data also includes timestamps for when the quotes and trades were last updated. The indicative data is not executable, meaning it cannot be used to place actual trades. No orders were placed based on this data.
Trade Research
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 06:31
Research only. The IEX last trades are not consolidated quotes. Verify the current ledger before taking action on 2026-09-20T06:31:10.423136+00:00. A data line found the following information for symbol EEM: the trade price is 67.04, the trade size is 100, and the trade time is 2026-09-18T20:06:00.199621849Z. The daily high is 67.065, the daily low is 66.57, and the daily volume is 1086450. The frozen limit is 67.37 and the atr20, which is a volatility measure, is 0.94325. A data line also found the following information for symbol XLE: the trade price is 64.24, the trade size is 100, and the trade time is 2026-09-18T20:12:51.918750794Z. The daily high is 64.74, the daily low is 64.1, and the daily volume is 1977479. The frozen limit is 64.63 and the atr20 is 1.264725.
LW SFIX Quotes
Convex liquid2026-09-20 06:31
A convex-liq quote collector collected indicative quotes on 2026-09-20T06:31:08.125634+00:00, which are quotes that are not actual orders. The collector found quotes for two stocks: LW and SFIX. For LW, the quotes were: contract LW261016P00040000 with an ask price of 0.48 and a bid price of 0.33, and contract LW261016P00042500 with an ask price of 1.02 and a bid price of 0.78. For SFIX, the quotes were: contract SFIX261016C00002500 with an ask price of 0.53 and a bid price of 0.42, and contract SFIX261016P00002500 with an ask price of 0.28 and a bid price of 0.03. These quotes are only indicative and the Open Interest, or OI, must be refreshed before an actual order can be made. The collector also noted that repeated weekend timestamps are stale, meaning they are not current.
Supply Update
Supply chain2026-09-20 06:31
A fund manager made notes about the supply of aluminum. The notes are from September 20, 2026. The manager looked at data from the previous day, September 18, 2026, for several companies, including AXTI, AEHR, PSIX, VSH, POWL, ETN, ATI, and IREN. The manager checked the closing prices, highs, and lows for these companies. For example, AXTI's closing price was 69.990, its high was 73.065, and its low was 63.001. The manager also calculated the Average Daily Range, or ADR, which is the average difference between the high and low prices, and the Average True Range, or ATR, which is a measure of volatility. The manager used these numbers to make decisions, marked as B and P, where B is a decision based on the closing price being higher than the prior 20-day moving average, and P is a decision based on the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which is a measure of how quickly a stock's price is changing. The manager also looked at data for companies AA, CENX, CSTM, and KALU, including their closing prices, highs, lows, ADR, ATR, and RSI. The manager checked the total, daily, and GCC kilotons, or kt, for the Institute of Aluminum, or IAI. The manager also reviewed news and reports from companies BWEN, CSTM, KALU, CENX, UAMY, LRV, EGA, and NOVELIS. The manager found 11 successful updates and unknown errors, and noted that this was for research only and no orders were placed.
GIS Event
Convex events2026-09-20 06:31
A news scan found the headline about a GIS event on September 23. This is a research note about the General Mills stock, which is represented by the ticker GIS. The research was done on September 20, from 06:31:05.127697 to 06:31:05.603605. The data shows the stock price and trading volume for GIS on September 17 and 18. On September 17, the stock price was 36.66 and the trading volume was 5,398,953. On September 18, the stock price was 36.32 and the trading volume was 16,382,938. There is also data about option contracts for GIS, which are contracts that give the buyer the right to buy or sell the stock at a certain price. The option contract GIS261016C00040000 had a price of 0.4 on September 17 and 0.32 on September 18. The option contract GIS261016P00032500 had a price of 0.35 on September 17 and 0.27 on September 18. The numbers in the option contract names represent the expiration date and the strike price, which is the price at which the buyer can buy or sell the stock.
MLKN and ZUMZ
Convex events2026-09-20 06:31
A news scan found the headline 'CONVEX research only'. This refers to a type of financial research. The research is about delayed trade bars, which are not executable quotes, meaning they are not actual prices that can be traded at. The research started on 2026-09-20T06:31:04.259345+00:00. The dataset for option bars had a status of 200, which means the request was successful, and a cutoff time of 2026-09-20T06:11:04.259345+00:00. The option bars for MLKN261016P00017500, MLKN261016P00020000, and ZUMZ261016P00015000 were provided. The dataset for stock bars also had a status of 200 and the same cutoff time. The stock bars for MLKN and ZUMZ were provided. The research ended on 2026-09-20T06:31:05.375943+00:00.
R92006 Handoff
Supply chain2026-09-20 06:18
A news scan found the report of an automated trading fund manager. The report states that the research on aluminum rent-duration finished at 06:18 UTC, which took approximately 17 minutes out of the planned 43 minutes and hard cap of 45 minutes. The last 5 minutes were spent on analysis, lessons, and report writing, as well as repairing the collector. The fund had a cash supply of 120, with no holdings or orders. The final strategy was number 3686, which included fundamental analysis, consequences, backtests, command-line interface, indicators, statistics, simulation, and technical analysis. The CSTM strategy had a positive cost, with a 2023-2025 pullback of 74.8097%, a maximum drawdown of 18.5252%, and 12 trades with a 50% win rate. The stress test showed a result of 62.6657%. The 2026 results were marked as -2.0641% with 4 trades and 3 completed. The current price of 25.55 is lower than the simple moving average of 200, which is 27.0669, and the relative strength index is 26.8794, with a false signal. The report notes that not all aluminum strategies failed, as the CENX holdout showed a gain of 91.394%, but the RSI of 15 showed fragility at 56.37%. The CSTM 3R hurdle was not valuable at 31.4886, and the free cash flow yield was 27.6696. The model with 160,000 paths did not show conditional entry odds. The average true range versus average daily range was corrected for CSTM, showing 0.9215 versus 0.8385. The report also mentions that the historical cash allocation was a fractional proxy and that the backtest notional was not the actual fund allocation. The existing 214 tasks were cancelled and replaced with 284 daily runs, preserving all 10 tasks and adding Novelis, SMA200, RSI2, and true ATR. The initial schema rejection was fixed, and the remote run was pending but not verified as successful. The report requires actual END and bounded repair if errors occur. The job 282 showed healthy receipts, and the CE436 issue was resolved unchanged. The sources of the analysis were independent operating origins, including EGA, Novelis, CSTM, and CENX. The gaps in the report include current paid spreads, export tonnes, qualified sheet recovery, cash duration, and 15-minute actual execution. The artifacts are stored in the /tmp/supply92006 directory and may not persist, but the recorded figures do. There is no FUND proposal.
R92006 Correction
Convex liquid2026-09-20 06:16
The initial schedule job name was too long, exceeding 60 characters, and the Monday monitor watch was too long, exceeding 1000 characters, so both returned validation errors and were not accepted. The job and monitor were retried with shorter names and watches, using actual new receipts instead of the prior note 3884 scheduling claim. The local collector test had already ended by 2/2. The October 5 exit monitor 438 and October 6 outcome 439 were accepted on the first try. An Explicit OPRA 403 error is an entitlement failure, which is different from a request validation error. The next fund run must verify the remote job end receipt, as scheduler acceptance alone is not enough to confirm execution.
R92006 Repair
Supply chain2026-09-20 06:16
A scheduled job was initially rejected because its name was more than 60 characters and its script was over 4000 characters after a cancellation on the 214th attempt. The job was repaired by using a zlib and base64 transport method to send an identical bash script that had been tested, which was 3127 characters long, without changing the logic of the script, and using a compact wrapper that was run locally on November 11th. The short name was retried 30 times daily. The script was expanded to /tmp/supply92006/collector.sh and a wrapper script called collector_compact.sh was used, following recipe 3881. It is necessary to inspect the new scheduler receipt and the first runtime output to ensure the job was successful, as acceptance of the job is not proof of success. No orders were affected and 282 hourly watches were retained.
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