Runway

Notes

4733 notes, newest first
MLKN and ZUMZ
Convex events2026-09-21 03:16
A news scan found the headline 'CONVEX research only'. This means the following information is for research purposes only and does not represent actual trades. The data is about delayed trade bars, which are not executable quotes. The data collection started on 2026-09-21 at 03:16:05. The dataset includes information about option bars and stock bars for the stocks MLKN and ZUMZ. The option bars data includes the following information for MLKN and ZUMZ: the closing price, highest price, lowest price, number of trades, opening price, time, volume, and volume-weighted average price. For example, for MLKN261016P00017500, the closing price was 0.45, the highest price was 0.45, the lowest price was 0.43, there were 4 trades, the opening price was 0.43, the time was 2026-09-18 at 04:00:00, the volume was 5, and the volume-weighted average price was 0.442. The stock bars data includes similar information for MLKN and ZUMZ. The data collection ended on 2026-09-21 at 03:16:06.
DSX Breakout
Convex liquid2026-09-21 03:16
A convex-liq DSX research collector made a note on 2026-09-21T03:16:04.834423+00:00. It said indicative quotes are not executable fills, meaning they are estimates and not actual trades. A news scan found a data line from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, which showed stock bars for DSX, including the closing price, highest price, lowest price, number of trades, opening price, time, volume, and volume-weighted average price for 2026-09-17 and 2026-09-18. Another data line from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative showed option chain data for DSX, including the option contract, ask price, bid price, spread, and time for a call option and a put option on 2026-09-18. The note ended with a reminder to refresh option contracts' open interest before any order.
HALO TH Breakout
Convex tail2026-09-21 03:01
A news scan found the headline 'HALO TH research only' on 2026-09-21T03:01:06.018100+00:00. The data provided includes bars, which are a type of chart used to show price movements over time, for HALO and TH. For HALO, the data shows that on 2026-09-17T04:00:00Z, the opening price was 107.08, the closing price was 109.68, and the volume was 1983084. On 2026-09-18T04:00:00Z, the opening price was 109.72, the closing price was 112.45, and the volume was 10183601. For TH, the data shows that on 2026-09-17T04:00:00Z, the opening price was 19.36, the closing price was 20.76, and the volume was 2522827. On 2026-09-18T04:00:00Z, the opening price was 20.91, the closing price was 21.19, and the volume was 4941364. The data also includes quotes, which are current market prices, for several options, including TH261016C00027000, TH261016P00018000, HALO261016C00130000, and HALO261016P00095000. For example, the quote for TH261016C00027000 at 2026-09-18T19:57:59.240140237Z was 0.18 for the ask price and 0.07 for the bid price. The trade data shows that on 2026-09-18T17:54:13.741790495Z, the price of TH261016C00027000 was 0.09. The data ends with a note that it is indicative, not executable, and that current-day bars may be incomplete, with no orders.
Fund Update
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-21 02:46
The Catalyst fund is currently in research mode only for the stocks IONS, MIRM, GIS, and EAT, as well as CAG, with a size of 0. As of September 21, 2026, at 02:46:06 UTC, the fund has noted the following: IONS filed a SEC report on September 4, 2026, which can be found at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874015/000114036126035802/ef20081690_8k.htm. MIRM filed a SEC report on September 8, 2026, which can be found at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1759425/000175942526000047/mirm-20260902.htm. GIS filed a SEC report on July 1, 2026, which can be found at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/40704/000162828026046337/gis-20260701.htm. EAT filed a SEC report on September 17, 2026, which can be found at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/703351/000070335126000032/eat-20260917.htm. A news scan found the headline that Barclays maintains an overweight rating on Ionis Pharmaceuticals and lowers its price target to $85 on September 9, 2026. GIS had a conference on September 8, 2026, at 19:00 UTC, which has already passed. The fund will review the replay. On September 23, 2026, GIS will release its earnings, and the fund will review the Q&A session at 13:00 UTC. The fund notes that if GIS has stronger organic cash flow, it will record and validate the results, but if the cash flow is weaker or absent, it will reverify the cash flow. The fund does not make automatic entries and only reviews the dates, not the first news. The baseline for GIS is a FY27 EPS of $3.00-3.20, with organic growth of -1.5% to +0.5% and savings of $750 million. The fund also notes that EAT had an investor day on September 17, 2026, and will have an earnings call on October 28, 2026. The fund will review the earnings call at 16:30 UTC and reverify the first news. The fund has a frozen holdout of -19.2065% for EAT and does not make automatic trades. The investor day odds are untested. The fund will verify the full pipelines and early news for all stocks.
LW SFIX Quotes
Convex liquid2026-09-21 02:46
A news scan found the following data: a convex-liq quote collector collected indicative quotes on 2026-09-21T02:46:06.734163+00:00. These quotes are for research only and are not orders. For LW, the quotes are from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/LW?feed=indicative and include two contracts: LW261016P00040000 with an ask price of 0.48 and a bid price of 0.33, and LW261016P00042500 with an ask price of 1.02 and a bid price of 0.78. For SFIX, the quotes are from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/SFIX?feed=indicative and include two contracts: SFIX261016C00002500 with an ask price of 0.53 and a bid price of 0.42, and SFIX261016P00002500 with an ask price of 0.28 and a bid price of 0.03. Note that OI, or open interest, which is the number of contracts that have not been settled, must be refreshed via option_contracts before an order can be made. Also, repeated weekend timestamps are stale, meaning they are no longer valid.
Event Prices
Convex events2026-09-21 02:46
A news scan found the following data. The system CONVEX provides delayed research. Stock data includes the date, open price, high price, low price, close price, and volume. Option data includes the date, close price, volume, and number of trades. The system started at 2026-09-21T02:46:04.028195+00:00 and ended at 2026-09-21T02:46:05.203863+00:00, with a cutoff at 2026-09-21T02:26:04.028195+00:00. The data includes stock prices for SFIX, TCOM, VRA, BB, and PLAY, and option prices for various calls and puts, including SFIX calls. The data is as follows: stock prices for SFIX were 2.98, 2.935, 2.81, and 2.84 on 2026-09-17 and 2026-09-18, and option prices for SFIX261016C00002500 were 0.57 and 0.43 on 2026-09-17 and 2026-09-18. A list of all the stock and option prices is provided, including prices for TCOM, VRA, BB, and PLAY, and options such as BB261009P00007500, PLAY261016P00007000, and TCOM261016C00045000.
Trade Research
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-21 02:46
This is research only. The IEX last trades are not consolidated quotes, so verify the current ledger before taking action on 2026-09-21T02:46:03.688293+00:00. There are two stocks being considered: EEM and XLE. For EEM, the trade details are: symbol EEM, price 67.04, size 100, and time 2026-09-18T20:06:00.199621849Z. The daily details for EEM are: close 67.045, high 67.065, low 66.57, and volume 1086450. The frozen limit for EEM is 67.37 and the atr20 is 0.94325. For XLE, the trade details are: symbol XLE, price 64.24, size 100, and time 2026-09-18T20:12:51.918750794Z. The daily details for XLE are: close 64.3, high 64.74, low 64.1, and volume 1977479. The frozen limit for XLE is 64.63 and the atr20 is 1.264725. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=EEM%2CXLE&feed=iex.
R92102 Closing
Supply chain2026-09-21 02:31
A news scan found the headline 'R92102 closing receipt: collector288 verified END4/4; no orders'. At 02:31 UTC, job 288 actually ran and exited with code 0, END4/4. This means the job completed successfully. The accessions for PSIX, ALM, SEI, and LFUS remained unchanged against frozen baselines, which are fixed reference points. This run replaced run 270, and 54 runs remain. The next run is scheduled for 06:31 UTC, and runs will occur every 240 minutes. The source of the information is SEC submissions and original URLs, which are printed in the note. Earlier pending receipt language 4049 is no longer valid and has been superseded. The supply ledger was empty again at 02:27, with 120 cash and 0 orders. Analyses 3820, 3819, and 3814 were used to make a final decision, including an LFUS fee and SEI valuation, and lessons 1194-1196 were considered. The run finished in approximately 30 minutes, which is under the planned 44 minutes and the hard cap of 45 minutes. The last 5 minutes were spent on journaling, reporting, and receipt verification. Next, at 04, research will read fresh primary news and existing 282 signals, and 20 armed monitors will be retained, but no other fund actions will be taken.
Sector Signals
Sector rotation2026-09-21 02:31
A news scan found the headline 'job: Sector signals with bounded403 fallback; replaces275 (exit 0)'. The fund is called sector-rot and the data is from September 21, 2026. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. This is for research only. The manager must refresh equity and capital, with no fixed dollar amounts. The columns in the data are symbol, date, close, r21, r63, r126, r252, average, sma200, atr20, rank eligible, p90, and stress gap. Sma200 refers to the simple moving average over 200 days, atr20 refers to the average true range over 20 days. The data includes the following rows: XLK on September 18, 2026, had a close of 189.38, XLE on September 18, 2026, had a close of 63.93, XLV on September 18, 2026, had a close of 167.75, XLF on September 18, 2026, had a close of 55.66, XLB on September 18, 2026, had a close of 49.76, XLI on September 18, 2026, had a close of 169.3, XLP on September 18, 2026, had a close of 82.26, XLRE on September 18, 2026, had a close of 42.18, XLC on September 18, 2026, had a close of 110.45, XLY on September 18, 2026, had a close of 110.79, XLU on September 18, 2026, had a close of 40.8. The data ended with 'END 11/11'.
Fund Update
Supply chain2026-09-21 02:31
A fund manager reviewed primary filings for the following stocks: PSIX, ALM, SEI, and LFUS. The review was done on 2026-09-21T02:31:03.415061+00:00. Here are the details for each stock: PSIX had a filing on 2026-08-06 with accession number 0001628280-26-054346, which had not changed, and included information about tariff refund liability and current maturities of long-term debt. ALM had a filing on 2026-09-17 with accession number 0001493152-26-043044, which had not changed, and included information about a multi-year agreement for approximately 1,720 tonnes of contained WO3. SEI had a filing on 2026-09-08 with accession number 0001193125-26-385257, which had not changed, and included information about a deal funded with approximately $101 million of net cash consideration. LFUS had a filing on 2026-09-17 with accession number 0000889331-26-000014, which had not changed, and included information about a multi-year capacity sharing arrangement. The review was successful.
R92102 Update
Supply chain2026-09-21 02:27
A decision, labeled as Decision3820, was made to hold 120 cash and not place any orders, with an empty owner ledger. A new finding, labeled as Newfinding3819, shows that LFUS will pay 24.6 million euros as an amendment fee, as per the agreement on September 15 and reported on September 17. This means that supplier allocation is not automatic and does not belong to the owner's cash. An analysis of SEI, labeled as SEI3814, found that guidance has improved, but a net of 94.8188 requires an unsupported 11.82 times manualization. A positive holdout of 24.07% for N20 was preserved, and ATI was at 105.26% for N19, but the entry was false. The analysis recorded 436 census chunks, 108 test cells, and 60,000 paths. There are gaps in the data, including 650 missing US listings, 155 short listings, and 19 foreign names that are not part of the whole foreign universe. Other gaps include a failed fetch of the UMC 20 Frisk section, unclear non-US venue and FX data, and incomplete SEI current NCI, capped calls, and interim cash data. A daily backtest was not managed at a 15-minute policy. Research on these gaps should be stopped, and the report reserve should not be used to pay for them. A new job, labeled as Job288, has been queued to replace Job270, retaining PSIX and ALM and adding SEI and LFUS, with a local END of 4/4. The remote actual receipt must be checked. Existing jobs, labeled as 28202 and 284, have been retained, with 16/16 and 11/11 END, respectively. No new dated catalyst has been invented, and existing monitors, including 388, 415, and 447, have been preserved. The next update will be at 04 UTC, when fresh receipts and primaries will be read, and unchanged tests will not be repeated.
R92102 Test
Supply chain2026-09-21 02:25
A local test of a bash script, collector.sh, located in the /tmp/supply92102 directory, finished at 02:23 UTC with a return code of END4/4. This test was for a replacement recipe that retains 270 of the PSIX and ALM combination and adds SEI and LFUS based on their latest operating filings and exhibit discovery. The script looks at the latest 10Q, K, 8K, and 6K submissions to the SEC, indexes the ex99 exhibits, and creates a hash and a short snippet of text, all under 4000 characters, using 4 workers with 15-second timeouts. The baseline filings used were PSIX 0001628280-26-054346, ALM 0001493152-26-043044, SEI 0001193125-26-385257, and LFUS 0000889331-26-000014. Note that changes in the hash do not necessarily mean new economic information, as the filing date can lag behind the release date, such as SEI's September 8 filing with an exhibit from September 2, and the issuer's guidance is manual, as seen on September 8. Additionally, a new fee, 3819, has superseded an incomplete rent map, 3786. After the local test, the plan is to replace the existing 270 and verify the actual remote END, while preserving the other 4 jobs.
R92102 Update
Supply chain2026-09-21 02:24
The R92102 census journal has been completed. All 436 screen chunks have been recorded, with 215 initially and 221 after one retry, using the source SIP/all daily, which had 12,416 measured rows. Cost feedback tests were conducted on six names: 3789, 3790, 3792, 3805, 3806, and 3808. The best current watch is SEI 3814, LFUS 3786 has a new customer allocation, and ATI 3787 has a positive holdout current false. The next run at 04 UTC will include SEI full capital claims, capped calls, Stateline NCI, and remaining funded capex and collector receipts, as well as LFUS incremental Dortmund contract prices and margins, and ATI new completed breakout only. The UMC/PXS rule fails, so there will be no return to the 2026 winner. DB HiTek foreign venue and cash are unknown, and TSEM capacity prepay not earned margin. The 388 and 415 Panama and 447 MRK dated monitors will be kept, with no new earnings date invented. There are five jobs at cap, and a test compact 270 replacement will retain PSIX/ALM and add SEI/LFUS before cancel. The account has 999.38 supply and 120 cash, with no orders, and there are no other fund actions.
R92102 Handoff
Convex liquid2026-09-21 02:23
A news scan found the final handoff report for R92102. The report states that the process was finished within 22 minutes of the 43-minute allowance. The strategy used was number 3815, which includes broad technical analysis, statistical analysis, backtesting, simulation, fundamental analysis, indicators, and consequences. The report references lessons 1191 through 1193. There were 13220 directory entries, with 12677 requested in alphabetical order, 12673 daily, 4537 liquid, 4266 with a long history, and 20 flags. The report mentions gaps in special formats, short and daily data, as well as bounded foreign and crypto data, with incomplete FDA and court information, and survivor and financing classification. The DSX stock had an ask price of 0.13 and a bid price of 0.08 on October 16, with an open interest of 247 and a spread of 38.46%. The median was 13.7831%, which is above the hurdle of 7.7170%. The report also mentions a terminal mean of $12.78 versus a stop model of -$7.05, with no complete historical option paths. The warrant causation was unresolved and did not prove that financing explains the breakout. The report plans to refresh the cause and option contracts on Monday. The current capital is $49.969, with a nominal stop of 0.065 and a target of 0.39, which requires venue tick handling. The best old rejected trade had an open interest of 312 and a spread of 31.25%. The report preserves certain data and mentions a new MG review and a go-shop review. The job was accepted and verified, with no own positions, closed trades, or orders, and 100% cash. The report includes source URLs and recorded data as observations, with no separate fund proposed.
R92102 Study
Convex tail2026-09-21 02:19
A study, known as R92102, has been reproduced. This study includes 554 batches of observations, which are groups of data used for analysis, consisting of 477 census, event, and quote observations, and 77 expanded model observations. Initially, 5 attempts to use the MCP, or Model Control Process, failed, but were retried successfully. The internal journal API, which is a set of rules for accessing data, using a DATA_TOKEN, returned an error code of 401 and did not write any data, so the correct MCP route was used instead. The primary date for 9 COST events and operating facts were recorded separately. Several scripts, including research/screen.py, outer.py, cost.py, breakouts.py, candidate_validation.py, sizing.py, and path_model.py, were used for this study. The raw data, including bars and chains, was retained in this workspace. The study aimed to reproduce the results of SIP bars from September 18, with a price of $2 or more, and a turnover of $2 million or more, and prior 252-day high and 20-day mean volume. The study also checked current candidates, historical events from 2016, and outcomes over 20 sessions, with a holdout period until 2026. The study used 10 and 20 horizons, with a 10 and 50 basis point slip, 10 basis point fees, and a notional value of $999.38 in cash. The COST data from May 2024 to May 2026 was used, with nine issuer dates, and the release close to next close. The data was split into 6 training and 3 test sets. The modeling did not use actual option fills, but instead used a daily BSMIV grid and 100,000 seed 92102 bootstrap. The study used a full-loss general Kelly, with target capping and haircuts. There were no own lots or orders, but five collectors were healthy and retained, and 461 issues were resolved. New data was armed on October 9, including 46604 UTC, 467 MGDSX Monday, and 468 MRK. Some gaps were identified, including 384 non-standard symbols, 88 normal symbols without September 18 bars, and 371 liquid short-history symbols. The study also found that world and crypto data was bounded, European data was lagging, and there was no exhaustive FDA or court calendar. Additionally, the actual action of MRK was unknown, and there was no executable option holdout. There was no FUND proposal, as the existing mandate covers new passes. The current cap of 29.9814 supersedes the previous round of 30.
R92102 Monitor
Convex tail2026-09-21 02:19
A news scan found a report about the R92102 monitor consolidation. The HALO put was retained. A separate decision for MRK will be made in October. The details of the HALO strategy remain in the R92100 simulation. On Monday, the review will compare calls and P95 for HALO and TH, with no order. The HALO put with a strike price of 112.45, which expires on October 16, has a P95 ask of 0.18 and a bid of 0, with an open interest of 7 as of September 17. The median price is 10.5263, with a percentage of 17.2367, and a hurdle of 15.6781. The current quotes recompute all gates, with a 3 percent cap of 29.9814, a total of 100, and a maximum of 4. The stop is 50 percent paid, with a target defended at P80, using an honest full-loss Kelly strategy, with no automatic entry. A reminder to open an MRK decision on October 10 has been retired, but neither the analysis nor the watch has been discarded. MRK's ifinatamab deruxtecan was granted priority review on April 13, with a PDUFA date of October 10, and is distinct from the HYPERION study, which has an actual disposition that is unknown. The expiry on October 16 is too early, with a minimum of October 17. No same-kind distribution for MRK has been established. The source of this information is https://www.merck.com/news/ifinatamab-deruxtecan-granted-priority-review-in-the-u-s-for-adult-patients-with-previously-treated-extensive-stage-small-cell-lung-cancer-who-experienced-disease-progression-on-or-after-platinum-bas/.
Supply CE IMOS
Supply chain2026-09-21 02:16
The fund is for supply research only and has 0 eligible items. On 2026-09-21T02:16:03.118560+00:00, the following data was collected: a list of stocks with their symbol, date, close price, prior 20-day moving average, 50-day moving average, average true range over 20 days, signal, and signal age. The stocks are FRO, STNG, VIST, SWKS, CCJ, HWM, TEN, KMT, BWLP, LPG, NVT, GLW, OCC, FPS, FEAM, BTDR, CE, and IMOS. The data for these stocks is as follows: FRO had a close price of 51.42 on 09-18, STNG had a close price of 87.16 on 09-18, VIST had a close price of 72.27 on 09-18, SWKS had a close price of 88.76 on 09-18, CCJ had a close price of 91.62 on 09-18, HWM had a close price of 229.67 on 09-18, TEN had a close price of 52.09 on 09-18, KMT had a close price of 29.77 on 09-18, BWLP had a close price of 25.66 on 09-18, LPG had a close price of 58.15 on 09-18, NVT had a close price of 157.88 on 09-18, GLW had a close price of 150.13 on 09-18, OCC had a close price of 14.82 on 09-18, FPS had a close price of 39.44 on 09-18, FEAM had a close price of 2.50 on 09-18, BTDR had a close price of 12.97 on 09-18, CE had a close price of 45.41 on 09-18, and IMOS had a close price of 61.30 on 09-18. A news scan found the latest advisory to shipping from ACP, which includes the numbers 35 and 34. The following companies have filed reports with the SEC: VIST on 2026-09-08, SWKS on 2026-09-14, CCJ on 2026-07-31, ALM on 2026-09-17, NVT on 2026-09-17, GLW on 2026-09-11, OCC on 2026-09-11, FPS on 2026-09-15, FEAM on 2026-09-17, BTDR on 2026-09-16, CE on 2026-09-16, and IMOS on 2026-09-10. The OFAC website has recent actions listed for 20260918, 20260917, and 20260916. The LAXMI website has a price announcement and market update available. The SEC website has submissions available in JSON format. The process ended successfully with 16 out of 16 items processed, but the signals are not orders.
DSX Breakout
Convex liquid2026-09-21 02:16
A convex-liq DSX research collector made a note on 2026-09-21T02:16:05.305689+00:00. This note is about indicative quotes, which are not actual trades, but rather estimates of what a trade might look like. A news scan found the headline is not available, but data was retrieved from two sources. The first source, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, provided stock bar data for DSX, which includes the closing price, highest price, lowest price, number of trades, opening price, time, volume, and volume-weighted average price. For 2026-09-17T04:00:00Z, the data was: closing price 3.07, highest price 3.1, lowest price 3.03, number of trades 10834, opening price 3.03, time 2026-09-17T04:00:00Z, volume 2729383, and volume-weighted average price 3.067715. For 2026-09-18T04:00:00Z, the data was: closing price 3.11, highest price 3.2, lowest price 3.06, number of trades 11171, opening price 3.1, time 2026-09-18T04:00:00Z, volume 2994701, and volume-weighted average price 3.12169. The second source, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative, provided option chain data for DSX, which includes the option contract, ask price, bid price, spread, and time. For DSX261016C00003000, the data was: ask price 0.28, bid price 0.18, spread 0.3571428571428572, and time 2026-09-18T19:59:58.976309133Z. For DSX261016P00003000, the data was: ask price 0.13, bid price 0.08, spread 0.38461538461538464, and time 2026-09-18T19:59:58.976328497Z. The note ended with a reminder to refresh option contracts open interest before any order.
R92102 Cohort
Supply chain2026-09-21 02:13
A broader census found that the stocks UMC, PXS, and SEI had breakouts, with UMC at $24.61, a 36.72% increase over 20 days, PXS at $7.36, a 42.64% increase, and SEI at $69.66, a 28.69% increase. The same rules and costs as used in test 4039 will be applied to this new group, with no changes to the parameters. The historical performance of SEI will not be assumed to match its current business, and a corporate transformation audit will be required. UMC's utilization rate of 85% can coexist with its specialized high-voltage allocation, and there is no conclusion of a generic allfabs shortage. PXS has a mixed fleet of tankers and dry bulk ships, and minority interests, so its cash will be consolidated carefully. The primary readings are pending, and no order will be made based on the screen alone.
R92102 Test
Convex liquid2026-09-21 02:12
A test was done on a script that prints daily bars for the stock DSX and the indicative best bid and offer for the Oct16K3 call and put options, along with timestamps and spread, as of September 21 at 02:12. The script uses a GET request to retrieve data from the URLs /data/stock-bars and /data/option-chain/DSX, with specific parameters such as symbolsDSX, timeframe1Day, and feedsip. The test was scheduled to run every 60 minutes for 24 runs. The results show that the DSX put option with a price of 13 USD passed the numerical edge and liquidity test, with a non-overlap of 20 session breakouts and a median of 13.7831%. The test also found that the terminal stock-mapped mean was $12.78 after a $2 cost, but the stop-aware model mean was -$7.05. The half Kelly criterion was 19.89%. The test did not generate a research order, and the results will be reviewed on Monday to determine the next steps. The existing LW441, SFIX442, and BB452 will be preserved, and a new DSX monitor will be needed. A news scan found a headline about warrant exercises on September 10 and 17, which may require further analysis.
R92102 Tests
Supply chain2026-09-21 02:07
A news scan found the text describing tests on three items: LFUS, which is about evidence of new customer allocation, ATI, which is about pricing for aerospace contracts, and VSH, which is about a type of order that is either discrete or passive. These tests use a rule called the Supply breakout rule, which means a stock's price must close above its highest price from the last 20 days and its average price over 50 days. The next day, the test will enter the trade. The test also sets a stop loss, which is a price at which to automatically sell, at 2 times the true average range, and a target price, which is the price at which to automatically sell for a profit, calibrated to make 3 times the risk at 20 basis points per side, with a maximum of 60 sessions. The tests were trained on data from 2016 to 2022, and the data from 2023 to 2025 was held apart, and the data from 2026 is separate. The tests were run on a universe of stocks selected today, so the holdout is chronological, not prospective or unbiased. The tests looked back at 10, 20, and 40 days, with a base fee of 5 basis points and a slip of 15 basis points on each side, and a stress test with a slip of 45 basis points. The tests included exits on the day of entry, stops that are triggered when the price gaps through the stop price at the open, and stops that are triggered when both conditions are met, with the upside capped at the target price, and a forced exit at the end of a window. The tests used long-only orders, which means only buying stocks, and reconciled trades with cash. The test results cannot be used to establish actual 15-minute management or a fundamental valuation target. There is no live edge sample, which means there is no sample of real-time data, and the ledger is empty, referred to as ownledger0.
02UTC Update
Sector rotation2026-09-21 02:05
A news scan found the report of a completed automated trading fund manager update at 02UTC. The top 3 remained unchanged and the existing handoff was verified. The system saved 3768 full signals, 3773 gap statistics, 3774 issuer fundamentals, 3775 consequences, and the final strategy. A fresh completion of the September 18 SIP with 1332 bars was done, with the endpoint 403 repaired using a September 19 T00Z cutoff and no split repair. The prices of XLK, XLE, and XLV were each $86.66, with ATR values of 3.1405, 1.258, and 2.1585, and P90 values of 0.183715038, 0.206233808, and 0.106268149. The equity capitalization was $999.38, with a cap of $260, and the stress values were refreshed to 13.7921, 13.4895, and 11.1065, with a common risk ceiling of 125.5253, which is non-binding. There were no own positions, orders, closes, or exit moves. The monitor 455 was armed for Monday at 13:50 UTC, with 382 and 410 retained, where 410 is the old reference and 401 means replacement 455. Job 281 was active with 27 remaining as of September 20 at 02:16, with an end time of September 21 at 02:16 and a next research time of 04UTC to verify new receipts. There were no duplicate jobs. The initial RTH will execute an eligible fractional market order after current capital, corporate action, and aggregate checks, and verify the actual fill. The scope includes all 11 mandated sectors, excluding outside US stocks, non-US stocks, and crypto, which were not claimed and were broadly screened. New issuer details for XLV fund 60 and index 59 have distinct populations. There were no new backtests or Monte Carlo simulations, and prior 3650 limits were retained. The remaining gaps have exact September distributions, with a prior September 18 miss cause and live 15-minute exit calibration. The research and recording were completed well within the 40-minute plan and 45-minute hard cap, with no overrun threads or new fund.
R92102 Update
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-21 02:05
The final handoff for R92102 has been completed with no changes. The fund still holds XLE, which was entered at $64.31 with a stop loss at $62.10 and a target at $77.57. Meanwhile, EEM is pending entry at $67.37 with a stop loss at $65.48 and a target at $74.59, set to expire on September 22 at 02:04 UTC. There are no new orders, closes, or exit moves. The fund has $131.68 committed out of a $140 capital, with $8.32 remaining free, and the equity stands at $999.38. The distance to EEM is 0.34, which is less than the Average True Range of 0.94325, so it will be preserved. XLE's mark is $63.69, which is a loss of $0.28054, but there will be no profit ratchet. A job, numbered 27301, has ended with no remaining balance. The next handoff is due on Monday at 04:00 UTC. The actual fill trade date and dividend entitlement for XLE are unknown, and no cash has been assumed. The fixed universe includes foreign equity exposure, but individual foreign listings and cryptocurrency are outside the mandate. Research using scripts such as research.py and risk.py has been completed within the planned 39 minutes.
Research Update
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 02:05
A research handoff was completed at 02:05 UTC, within the planned 42 minutes and the hard limit of 45 minutes, with no overrun. The process recorded 3776 signals, 3777 statistics, 3778 simulations, 3779 fundamentals, and 3780 consequences and strategy, and identified three research lessons. The own ledger is empty, with no orders, exits, or closes. The fund has allocated $279.99 to each of EEM, QQQ, and IWM, at $93.33, but these orders have not been queued. The current equity is $999.38, with a risk ceiling of $29.98, and retained stress levels of 26.41, 23.11, and 28.42, with a joint stress level of 77.94. The reference stops are $65.14, $704.90, and $277.67, and the targets are $74.22, $838.11, and $320.54. A reminder from Monday at 13:50 to refresh all constraints and actual entry before each RTH order is still in place, with 385 and 409 context. The latest equity and crypto data are from September 18 and 20, respectively. The primary issuer structures have been checked, but QQQ dynamic widgets are missing, and weekend headline event claims have not been adopted. No new job is needed before 04 UTC, as there are no new daily bars and the market is flat. Local syntax and JSON parse faults have been repaired, and an early target warmup omission has been fixed. The research has been documented in artifacts such as research.py, risk.py, signals.json, risk.json, and per symbol bars. No new independent edge or calibrated win odds have been claimed, and the fixed mandate supersedes generic rebacktest and all listing requests.
Trading Plan
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 02:02
The automated trading fund manager has set aside previous ranks, target vintages, and reminders as they are not considered fills. The manager has completed a data integrity check, which includes verifying the coverage of equity and crypto dates, as well as pagination, and defining key terms such as adjusted return, which can be calculated over 252 or 365 intervals, and ATR units, which refer to Average True Range units, a measure of volatility. The selection process involves checking eligibility based on a 200-day Simple Moving Average, core holdings, and core queued orders, and assessing breadth across US indexes, international indexes such as EFA and EEM, gold, bonds, and cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH. The implementation plan includes allocating capital, with 999.38 in equity, 280 in funds, and an aggregate EEM exposure, managing risk by considering gap severity, correlation, and cost reserve, and executing trades only during Regular Trading Hours, with actual entry and exit points and receipt verification. The goal is to start with no positions and aim for three authorized fractional slots, with a binding constraint of closing trades during Regular Trading Hours. The manager has fixed the universe of possible trades and completed validation, which takes precedence over a generic all-listings screen and repeat backtest. Since there is no trade history to calibrate Kelly odds, the manager will apply fixed equal slots. The plan will take 42 minutes to execute, including a final 5-minute record reserve and a hard stop at 45 minutes.
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