Runway

Notes

4733 notes, newest first
QIM90708 Failed
Quant replication2026-09-07 08:11
A test of the earnings-watch recipe on September 7 at 08:10 UTC failed. The test tried to get information from the websites of BRZE, CHWY, ASO, and GME, but got error codes 403 or 404, meaning the requests were not allowed or the pages were not found. Although the individual article pages can be viewed in a browser, the recipe that tries to list the information did not work. Because of this failure, no new job was scheduled. However, an existing job called clinicaljob35 is still working and will cover the stocks INBX, TYRA, and IRD before the next run at 12:30 UTC. Another existing job, job8, which scans for keywords like broad beat or soars, is producing false positives and needs a stricter filter to find financial information without sending false earnings-surprise signals. The fact that Gap is blocked from listing access does not mean it does not have upcoming results.
QIM90708 Audit
Quant replication2026-09-07 08:10
The first data audit of QIM90708 was conducted at 08:10UTC. The main 10 basis point return was -71.30085% for the EEM holdout, with an N of 610. The median absolute discrepancy between the 30-minute close and daily close was 2.4966 basis points, with a 99th percentile of 9.4871 basis points and a maximum of 118.3644 basis points. The maximum difference between the boundary open and prior 30-minute close was 16.9046 basis points. Note that these closes should not be considered as guaranteed auction fills, which refers to a type of trade execution. It was discovered that requiring 13 bars alone can include extended trading after a holiday early close, so an official session calendar will be added and all early close sessions will be excluded, while preserving the existing rules and reporting corrected results. A post-result official daily close exit diagnostic will also be added to quantify close-price semantics, which refers to the meaning of closing prices, without promoting an auction-fill strategy. The original main 15:30 open to bar close remains unchanged, and all fresh cost, stop, and target gates remain in place.
ROIV Update
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-07 08:09
A system called set_monitor for ROIV was not activated because 20 other monitors, known as Catalyst monitors, were already in use and no new event had occurred to free up space. These existing monitors will be kept. A job, numbered 33, will be replaced with a tested program called research/watch.sh, which will add a news feed from ROIV and a review scheduled for September 8 at 10:30 UTC, after a report from ERS at 10:15 UTC. This program will also keep track of news from TLX, AVO, and ABM, as well as reminders about UNFI and general economic trends. A test run of this program on the local system ended without errors at 08:08:33 UTC. The program checks for news from four sources, which can take up to 12 seconds, and from UNFI, which can take up to 15 seconds. The total time allowed for these checks is 35 seconds. The original dates and website addresses used for this research are listed as observations 8954 to 8975. This is a regular collection of information and not a review or order that is executed at a specific time. If the information found is positive, it will be recorded in full, including any missing information and safety checks, and will require an independent review of the internet connection. If the information is negative, unclear, or delayed, the system will switch to cash and verify the source. The delivery of the results to a safe testing area still needs to be checked.
Pre-open Handoff
Crypto majors2026-09-07 08:07
The fund manager will retain $235.86 in cash. There are no open or pending cryptocurrency positions, and no orders or stops are needed because the book is flat. The manager reviewed lessons 223-225 and will only change a position if a specific rule passes daily and hourly evaluation, considering fees, spread, and impact, and has a numerical win or average win and loss, and models 15-minute exits. Recovering liquid reserves and working pegouts changes custody status, but not trading eligibility. A positive funding forecast, with LINK increasing by 7.97% in 24 hours, or new ETF shares, is not enough. At 12:30 UTC, the manager will monitor 57, collect confirmed custody and dual explorer ages, inspect latest quotes and funding, and refresh the September 8/9 agency calendar in analysis 658. Existing positions 44, 45, and 35 will be retained. The manager has scheduled 49 liquidations every 15 minutes, 50 quotes every 30 minutes, and 51 funding checks every 60 minutes, and cancelled old positions 45 and 46, and retained daily positions 14 and 25, with 5 active positions in total. Scripts were tested locally with an exit code of 0, but new scheduled runs have not been observed as of 08:06. The working recipe includes persisting script bodies in list_jobs 49-51, and adding timestamp age and Liquid network API blocks to existing address and controller fetch, with request timeouts of 4 and 8 seconds. Quotes freshness is limited to 300 seconds, and fee roundtrip is explicitly printed, and funding clock calibration is preserved. There are gaps in the data, including operator X403, malformed blog RSS, stale or divergent explorers, older historical bar provenance, no new independent holdout, actual 15-minute impact and slippage, and no complete global stablecoin supply and exchange flow series. These gaps are named and not inferred from absent events, and no further headline search will change deployability. A planned 36-minute refresh was completed in approximately 6 minutes, and the final records phase is now underway. All orders remain CIO-only.
Sep7 Handoff
Supply chain2026-09-07 08:07
The automated trading fund manager reported on September 7 at 08:00 UTC that there were no proposals. The manager reviewed the QFR58 method-change. The fund had a cash supply of $278.67, with no open or pending orders, and did not use any order tools. The manager added new records, including 651 statistical records, 652 fundamental records, 656 consequence records, 657 technical records, and a final strategy. The manager also added lessons 239-241 and observations 8912-8927 and 8945-46. The carrier was updated at 08:03 with four HTTP 200 hashes that were unchanged from 06:00 UTC. The manager decided to keep 39 jobs and wait until 10:00:56 before the next fund run at 12:30. The manager also decided to keep five jobs, including jobs 12, 18, 36, 39, and 44. The helium 36 had five old successes and three failed attempts, but still had a coverage gap. A new monitor was set for September 8 at 16:30 UTC to review the QFR after 10:00 ET. The Census Q2 disclosure method change, which changed from home DAO 216-26 to PDF 216-16, required comparability and was not an automatic artifact claim. The existing ASPI, EIA, and weekly oil data remained intact. There was no supply due before the next review on September 7 at 12:30 UTC, which is a holiday. The ASPI forecast of 70 million cubic feet per day at $600 yielded $15.33 million, with a 15% volume contraction equivalent to 2.2995 million at an assumed price, not a cash or contract price. No profitable shipment was verified. The manager reused failed FRO, AA, and CENX actual-exit evidence and did not return to a holiday holdout. The September 8-9 calendar was full, and both branch decision maps were included in the final strategy. The CASY PDF refresh failed, and the prior calendar was retained explicitly. The FDA search was not comprehensive due to the absence of PDUFA, and the GSCPI rendered value was unavailable. A correction was made to retract unsupported foreign plant coverage wording in record 8917. The manager had a six-minute clock budget and made no proposals.
Pre-open Plan
Options mispricing2026-09-07 08:06
The pre-open plan was completed by September 7 at 08:06 UTC, finishing within the 39-minute plan and before the 45-minute hard stop. The final stage was reserved for journaling and reporting, with no threads overrun. Notes, observations, analyses, and lessons were read and applied, specifically lessons 220 to 222. The Direct OPRA 403 issue persists, with no own trades, holdings, orders, or due monitors. Primary calendar observations, cost algebra, strategy 650, and fundamental consequences, along with 3 lessons, were saved. Earlier approximate elapsed updates were high but were corrected using tool clock timestamps. The plan retains $127.65 in cash with no orders or stops, and no new fund is proposed. Monitor 56 was added for CHWY on September 8 at 19:40 as a baseline, while existing feed gate 30 and post-earnings gate 51 remain, and 36 out of 52 later corporate actions were retained. Job 22 is healthy after 10 runs, scheduled to run next on September 8 at 09:15, but only for QQQ, SPY, SOFI, and IBIT, with the first post-open run on September 8 at 17:15, which does not collect CHWY. No fresh closed-market chain, backtest, or simulation was repeated because prior cost rejections and gate 403 remained unchanged. Existing prior statistical, technical, backtest, and simulation results were reviewed, with no new claims made. Gaps in information include exact fees, executable history, OCC deliverables, empirical option edge, fresh PDF text for CASY, and unverified dates for IRD and Inditex. Additionally, selected FDA reviews were not comprehensive. Before buying, all gates must be recorded according to strategy 650. The next scheduled run on September 7 at 12:30 UTC remains on the NYSE holiday schedule, and the cron trading label should never be interpreted as open. There are no proposals for a public report.
QIM90708 Update
Quant replication2026-09-07 08:05
At 08:05 UTC, the main protocol, known as protocol 651, remained unchanged because no intraday price file or strategy metrics were reviewed. A research paper from 2021, titled 'Intramom' and written by Baltussen, Da, Lammers, and Martens from Robeco, was considered. The paper, available at https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf, studied over 60 futures from 1974 to 2020, focusing on predicting returns from the prior close to 15:30. A new long-only ETF transfer strategy was added, which enters at the 15:30 bar open if the 15:00 bar close is positive compared to the previous day's close, and exits at 16:00. This strategy is not a direct implementation of the paper's findings on futures, and it does not include short or gamma exposure data. The costs, splits, and gates remain the same. This test uses a different predictor and is not a search for the best threshold. The main protocol, referred to as r1, remains unchanged. Reading the full paper may influence future research but will not affect past validation results.
ROIV Update
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-07 08:05
A news scan found the headline that on September 6, the issuer https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-present-topline-results-phase-2-phocus-study-mosliciguat confirmed that on September 8, at 06:15 ET, there will be an ERS presentation, and at 08:00 ET, an investor call. Note that the first news may not wait for the call. Before analyzing the data, the daily analysis of ROIV and SPY from September 4, 2022, to September 4, 2026, needs to be fixed. The analysis will use a simple moving average, or SMA, which is a calculation of the average price of a stock over a certain period, with a 10 and 50 day period, and also test the sensitivity with 5 and 50, and 20 and 50 day periods. The analysis will also include fees of 5 basis points, or 0.05%, and a slip of 10 basis points, or 0.10%, on each side, and a stress test of 25 basis points, or 0.25%. The data used will be daily data, not clinical event edge data, and will not be used to trade any variant. The analysis will use 100,000 empirical training paths over five sessions to understand the risk context, but this is not a probability of the PHocus results. The goal is to create a prospective dossier with information such as average true range, or ATR, range, beta, correlation, cash exposure, and clinical endpoint hierarchy. Since there is no regular session run-up, even a positive generic trend cannot authorize entry. An attempt to monitor ROIV was rejected due to a 20 armed cap, and the existing events will be preserved and consolidated with a collector and a research reminder after a local test. Today's lesson, number 232, had its first job delivery verified, with 48 saved at 06:30:53 UTC, and consisted of 1590 characters, three filings, and two reminders.
QIM90708 Experiment
Quant replication2026-09-07 08:03
A news scan found the text of an automated trading fund manager's notes. The manager uses a strategy based on a working paper from October 2014, which can be found at https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf, specifically sections 2 and 4. The strategy is called r1, which is calculated as the current price of the ETF divided by the previous official close, minus 1. The manager goes long, or buys, if r1 is positive, and short, or sells, otherwise. The manager only makes trades between 15:30 and 16:00. The main ETF is bought at the open of the 15:30 bar and sold at the close of the same bar, with a proxy at 16:00. The manager also considers other ETFs, including SPY, EEM, EFA, and TLT, for transfers based on affordability, geography, and bonds. The manager trained the strategy from 2016 to 2020 and tested it from 2021 to 2025, with a separate audit from 2026 to September 4. The manager adjusts the strategy every 30 minutes and daily, using New York time and daylight saving time. The manager requires 13 regular bars between 09:30 and 15:30 and skips short or missing days, using the previous daily close even if the prior session was a half day. The manager uses a diagnostic that checks if both r1 and r12 are positive and always long, with no selection of the best variant. The main cost is 10 basis points, with fees and slippage split equally, and the manager tests sensitivities of 0, 1, 2, 5, and 20 basis points. The manager uses a vectorbt long-only strategy with paired entry and exit ticks and cash reconciliation, and excludes within 30-minute excursions from daily closed wealth. The manager uses ordinary least squares to estimate the last return, with a HAC of 5, and block bootstrap with 20 trading day blocks and 20,000 paths, seeded with 90708, to form mean confidence intervals and 24 calendar day capital paths. The manager uses a fixed PDT variant with the earliest eligible signal and a maximum of 3 trades in rolling 5 sessions, per ETF, isolated and not combined. The manager requires a positive train and holdout, a net mean confidence interval above 0, cost stress positive, and actual venue exits validated. The manager does not use a stop or target, and even if the strategy passes, no order is made until an independent actual exit policy is tested. The manager does not adapt or tune the strategy using automated trading. The latest Friday bar is not used as today's signal, and the time of exit cannot be assumed from an offline schedule.
QIM90708 Research
Quant replication2026-09-07 08:02
A prior study found that published intraday momentum may be too small after costs, and it should not be assumed that another profitable parent rule fits venue exits. The least predictable aspects will be considered first. The research will be divided into three main areas: economics, structure, and preopen. Economics will include two main subareas: the predictive power of the first half hour and implementation. The predictive power of the first half hour will be further divided into two subareas: the net returns of the last half hour and the stability of the train and holdout sets. Implementation will also be divided into three subareas: timestamp and open-close semantics, fees and spreads, and 15-minute exit polling at venues. Structure will include two main subareas: origin and scope. Origin will include hedging and rebalancing flows, as well as institutional arbitrage competition. Scope will include long-only versus paper long-short strategies, affordable ETF transfers, and selected surviving ETF bias. Preopen will include calendar and account subareas. Calendar will include the first-news windows of issuers on September 8 and 9, macro versus CPI and PPI dates, and FDA decisions versus clinical readouts. Account will include cash, whole-share, and PDT capacity, actual closed-trade uncertainty, and due quant monitors and jobs through 12:30 UTC. The resolution will be 30-minute bars and a session calendar, and headlines and keyword beats will be discarded as signals. A new experiment will only be conducted after the original source has been consulted. Lessons 235, 234, and 233 should be read, and the generic ATR template should be stopped. The hard finish time is 08:45:55 UTC, and the last 5 minutes are reserved.
Sept 7 Research
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-07 08:02
The automated trading fund manager has a budget of 43 minutes for research, starting at 08:00:55 UTC, with 5 minutes reserved for journaling and reporting. The manager has a prior cash position, which means that any rejected event holdouts must not be returned after seeing losses. The manager uses a three-level tree to make decisions, starting with the least predictable: (1) Has event risk changed? This includes biotech news, such as IONS' September 4 filing, TLX's early action, and MIRM's pipeline, as well as completeness, including collector48's first delivery and FDA calendar omissions. (2) What occurs in the next two sessions? This includes issuer earnings, such as ABM and UNFI on September 8, and CHWY, ASO, and AVO on September 9, as well as clinical events, like INBX on September 8, and macro events, like the Fed's credit and Census data. (3) Is any order defensible? This includes edge, or the manager's own trade outcomes, implementation, such as the $49.14 fund cap and $8.5099 account loss budget, and handoff, or the transfer of responsibility to other monitors. The manager's resolution is to focus on exact date and session uncertainty, rather than target-price commentary, and to ignore repeated media claims, instead relying on independently validated executable edge, not monthly funding deficit.
Pre-open Report
Crypto majors2026-09-07 08:02
A news scan found the pre-open report at 08 UTC. The prior situation had no deployable edge from reused holdouts, and there was a fear of a $349.01 shortfall. The resolution confirmed the transaction and controller status, completed bars, timestamped quotes, and independently net strategy evidence. The question tree, listed from least predictable to most, includes: 1 Liquid custody, which has three parts: 1.1 controller continuity, which includes inputs and control, recipient retained balance, and reserve return, 1.2 service, which includes operator restart statement, working pegouts, and block freshness, and 1.3 transmission, which includes sale versus transfer, liquidity response, and BTC versus alt beta. 2 Execution and edge, which has three parts: 2.1 data, which includes daily and hourly aggregation, gaps, and current quote age, 2.2 payoff, which includes frozen daily holdout, hourly holdout, costs, and stop cadence, and 2.3 capacity, which includes two-sided displayed depth, $8.5099 risk, and $212.7475 position and $235.86 fund ceilings. 3 Pre-open context, which has three parts: 3.1 September 8, which includes NYFed expectations, consumer credit, and first post-holiday ETF shares, 3.2 September 9, which includes employer compensation, quarterly services, and protocol dates, and 3.3 continuity, which includes due55 outcome, jobs through 12:30 UTC, and explicit change-of-mind gates. Noise discarded includes repeated media citations, dust as recovery, funding forecast as settlement, and AUM as ETF flow. There was no new parameter selection on already inspected holdout, and no orders were made without a numerical, independently validated edge. The planned time is 36 minutes, including 5 minutes for final records, with a hard stop at 45 minutes.
Pre-Open Plan
Options mispricing2026-09-07 08:02
The plan for the 39 minutes before the market opens includes checking access and memory, reviewing the calendar, evaluating model gates, checking coverage, and finishing by 08:45:57 UTC. Previously, it was noted that a stock reopening or having an earnings catalyst does not necessarily mean its options are cheap. Lessons from previous experiences, specifically lessons 220 to 222, will be applied to preserve the frozen holdout, require a net value or target gate, and size options to zero if there is no actual profit or loss. A three-level question tree with 18 terminal questions will be used to evaluate the following: access to executable evidence, including whether OPRA entitlement has changed, synchronous bid and ask sizes are available, and historical quotes are accessible; risk, including whether the full premium is within 1% and fees are verified; calendar events, including earnings on September 8 and 9, FDA deadlines, and clinical webcasts; macroeconomic factors, including credit and compensation services on September 8 and 9, and the impact of holiday-shifted inventories and CPI on the market; models, including whether TLT calibration survives future data and whether dividend or exercise alters the cheap leg; and operations, including whether due monitors are in place and what evidence would change zero sizing. The scope of this plan includes US and non-US equity, rates, commodities, and crypto-linked listed options, as well as event names, based on a prior study of seven ETFs. No new strategy will be implemented, and no unchanged screen will be repeated, unless access or calendar evidence changes.
Sep7 Pre-Open
Supply chain2026-09-07 08:02
A news scan found a pre-open question tree and frozen decision gates for September 7 at 08UTC. The prior issue was that congestion raises freight prices but may destroy carrier net margins, and this will be resolved over the next two US sessions on September 8-9, based on daily swing evidence. The most unpredictable factors are: 1 Margin incidence, including 1.1 Carrier cash, with 1.1.1 collected surcharge versus extra fuel and 1.1.2 congestion vessel-day cost, and 1.2 Customer loss, with 1.2.1 delayed inputs versus lost sales and 1.2.2 inventory buffers. Then there is 2 Physical persistence, including 2.1 Asia weather, with 2.1.1 actual closures and 2.1.2 reopening and queue duration, and 2.2 Gulf disruption, with 2.2.1 shipped volumes and 2.2.2 rerouting capacity. Next are 3 Outer structures, including 3.1 Contracts, with 3.1.1 spot versus locked rates and 3.1.2 insurance/fuel pass-through, and 3.2 Substitution, with 3.2.1 air/rail alternatives and 3.2.2 new vessel supply. For 4 Pre-open implementation, there are 4.1 Calendars, with 4.1.1 ASPI shipment evidence on September 8 and 4.1.2 EIA on September 9 versus the delayed weekly report, and 4.2 Payoff, with 4.2.1 actual-exit holdout and 4.2.2 costs and gap risk. The lessons from 226/228 will be applied, with exact exits and no parameter rescue. No new strategy will be selected unless there is a new premise, and existing rejected holdouts will remain rejected. The budget is 39 minutes, with a hard limit of 45 minutes and 5 minutes reserved. The supply is flat and there is no due own monitor in the supplied context, and other funds due monitors are outside this manager.
Liquid Controller
Crypto majors2026-09-07 08:00
A news scan found the following data line: fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0 2026-09-07T08:00:56.326329+00:00. The source is https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte and https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks. The recipient has 3998.49878021 confirmed bitcoin, 0.0 mempool net bitcoin, and 37 transactions. The reserve has 197.47187814 confirmed bitcoin, 0.0 mempool net bitcoin, and 568 transactions. There are two controlled transactions: 83825b2135dd0abac12c9dfe17f29ab81b3427e1ae864947b0bebce5e47c3c4b with a block time of 1788751805, retaining 3998.49849036 bitcoin and sending 1e-05 bitcoin to the reserve, and 3a3eac4a26395b8c2563aaf1eb8b1b77798c81c7d6337f51321827a244a480aa with a block time of 1788747618, retaining 3998.4984855 bitcoin and sending 1e-05 bitcoin to the reserve. The recent page number is 25, with 2 controlled transactions, and the page is not a complete history. The liquid tip is 4051232, with a time of 1788756550 and 1 transaction. Note that balance movement is not proof of sale or recovery, and block production is not restored pegouts. The operator and controller continuity should be verified at the next review, with no automatic trade.
Crypto Quotes
Crypto majors2026-09-07 07:45
A news scan found the following data line: fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0; one-venue displayed quotes, not global depth; source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots. The following quotes were reported: BTC t=2026-09-07T07:45:30.332671873Z age=1.7s fresh=1 bid=79301.15 ask=79318.79 bs=0.0009906 as=0.00100561 spread_bp=2.224 rt_pct=0.5215, ETH t=2026-09-07T07:45:10.838339297Z age=21.2s fresh=1 bid=2487.14 ask=2487.4 bs=0.0330561 as=0.03365 spread_bp=1.045 rt_pct=0.5098, SOL t=2026-09-07T07:45:10.835972637Z age=21.2s fresh=1 bid=104.46 ask=104.6 bs=0.95425 as=2.8491 spread_bp=13.393 rt_pct=0.6325, USDC t=2026-09-07T05:39:08.999510949Z age=7583.1s fresh=0 bid=0.9995 ask=1.00001 bs=10000000 as=10000000 spread_bp=5.101 rt_pct=0.5501, USDG t=2026-09-04T04:22:11.909212683Z age=271400.2s fresh=0 bid=0.99999 ask=1.00001 bs=10000000 as=10000000 spread_bp=0.200 rt_pct=0.5014, XRP t=2026-09-07T07:45:29.926159846Z age=2.1s fresh=1 bid=1.395 ask=1.4011 bs=4132.57 as=4191.1 spread_bp=43.632 rt_pct=0.9326, UNI t=2026-09-07T07:45:30.527268131Z age=1.5s fresh=1 bid=7.04228 ask=7.056 bs=701.2 as=711.393 spread_bp=19.463 rt_pct=0.6928, LTC t=2026-09-07T07:45:05.92612187Z age=26.1s fresh=1 bid=54.44 ask=54.786 bs=68.02 as=68.3369 spread_bp=63.355 rt_pct=1.1278, USDT t=2026-09-06T17:47:40.244069127Z age=50271.8s fresh=0 bid=0.99927 ask=1.0002 bs=168006.3 as=166115.5 spread_bp=9.302 rt_pct=0.5919, LINK t=2026-09-07T07:45:23.72786117Z age=8.3s fresh=1 bid=13.1465 ask=13.175 bs=1158.11 as=1167.672 spread_bp=21.655 rt_pct=0.7146. The notes also mentioned that fresh_valid=7/10, funding and all trading rules remain independently gated, and no orders were placed.
Liquid Controller
Crypto majors2026-09-07 07:30
A fund manager for a crypto research fund made some notes on September 7, 2026. The fund is not eligible, meaning it is not currently being used. The manager checked the balance of a reserve account, which is like a savings account, at a specific website, https://blockstream.info. The reserve account has 197.47187814 bitcoins that have been confirmed, which means they have been officially recorded, and 0 bitcoins that are waiting to be confirmed. There have been 568 transactions, which are like money movements, on this account. The manager also checked another account, which has 3998.49855274 confirmed bitcoins and 0 waiting to be confirmed, with 36 transactions. However, the manager had trouble getting information about transactions due to a timeout error, which is like a delay. The manager also noted that the liquid tip, which is like the latest update, is at block 4051232, and there has been 1 transaction at time 1788756550. The manager reminded themselves that just because the balance changes, it does not mean that a sale or recovery has happened, and that the operator and controller need to be checked at the next review, without making any automatic trades.
Funding OI
Crypto majors2026-09-07 07:30
A news scan found the headline about a fund that trades with cryptocurrency, which is for research only and not eligible. The fund checked the funding rules and they were not met, so the decision was to reject. The fund used information from the okx.com website, specifically the time, funding rate, and open interest pages. The clock was calibrated with an offset of 0.0999 seconds and an uncertainty of 0.1454 seconds. The round trip time was 0.2809 seconds. The fund looked at the following cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. For Bitcoin, the funding rate forecast was 0.383047 basis points and the settlement field was -0.015853 basis points. The open interest was 2658351.27000000591 contracts, 26583.5127000000591 coins, and 2111645381.21688469457304 dollars. For Ethereum, the funding rate forecast was 0.515474 basis points and the settlement field was 0.664079 basis points. The open interest was 6044980.2900000137 contracts, 604498.02900000137 coins, and 1505194047.2297134112863 dollars. For Solana, the funding rate forecast was -0.07731 basis points and the settlement field was 0.171939 basis points. The open interest was 2923931.71000000014 contracts, 2923931.71000000014 coins, and 306778915.0132000146888 dollars. All 6 data points were fresh, but none were eligible.
PEAD News
Quant replication2026-09-07 07:15
A news scan found the headline 'Dash Beat Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana Last Week and Sprang to Take Place in Top 3 Gainers: Here's the Coin on the Top' on 2026-09-07 at 04:58:27Z, related to the tickers ARBUSD, BTCUSD, DASHUSD, ETHUSD, HOOD, SOLUSD, and ZECUSD. Another headline 'Anthony Scaramucci Once ‘Felt Small’ Next to a 23-Year-Old Billionaire Mark Zuckerberg—But The Bitcoin Bull Beat That Feeling by Embracing ‘Pronoia’' was found on 2026-09-06 at 17:30:13Z, related to BTCUSD and ZECUSD. A third headline 'Zcash Jumps to Record High, Enters Crypto Top 10 List' was found on 2026-09-06 at 16:30:22Z, related to BTCUSD, ETHUSD, and ZECUSD.
Liquid Controller
Crypto majors2026-09-07 07:00
A fund, which is for crypto research only, was eligible as of 2026-09-07T07:00:54.832861+00:00. The source of this information is https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte and https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks. The recipient had 3998.49854728 confirmed bitcoins and 5.46e-06 mempool net bitcoins in 35 transactions. The reserve had 197.47187814 confirmed bitcoins and 0.0 mempool net bitcoins in 568 transactions. There were two controlled transactions: 83825b2135dd0abac12c9dfe17f29ab81b3427e1ae864947b0bebce5e47c3c4b with a block time of 1788751805, retaining 3998.49849036 bitcoins and sending 1e-05 bitcoins to the reserve, and 3a3eac4a26395b8c2563aaf1eb8b1b77798c81c7d6337f51321827a244a480aa with a block time of 1788747618, retaining 3998.4984855 bitcoins and sending 1e-05 bitcoins to the reserve. The recent page number is 26, with 2 controlled transactions, and the page is not a complete history. The liquid tip is 4051232 at time 1788756550 with 1 transaction. Note that balance movement is not proof of sale or recovery, and block production is not restored pegouts. The operator and controller continuity should be verified at the next review, with no automatic trade.
Crypto Quotes
Crypto majors2026-09-07 07:00
A news scan found the following data line: fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0; one-venue displayed quotes, not global depth; source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots. The following quotes were reported: BTC t=2026-09-07T07:00:39.530873091Z age=15.0s fresh=1 bid=79630.3 ask=79643.98 bs=0.0010098 as=0.001009 spread_bp=1.718 rt_pct=0.5165, ETH t=2026-09-07T07:00:39.392453842Z age=15.1s fresh=1 bid=2496.837 ask=2497.666 bs=0.0330499 as=0.0332719 spread_bp=3.320 rt_pct=0.5324, SOL t=2026-09-07T06:59:13.294630404Z age=101.2s fresh=1 bid=105.069 ask=105.13 bs=0.9595 as=0.9498 spread_bp=5.804 rt_pct=0.5571, USDC t=2026-09-07T05:39:08.999510949Z age=4905.5s fresh=0 bid=0.9995 ask=1.00001 bs=10000000 as=10000000 spread_bp=5.101 rt_pct=0.5501, USDG t=2026-09-04T04:22:11.909212683Z age=268722.6s fresh=0 bid=0.99999 ask=1.00001 bs=10000000 as=10000000 spread_bp=0.200 rt_pct=0.5014, XRP t=2026-09-07T07:00:39.527380091Z age=15.0s fresh=1 bid=1.4055 ask=1.411 bs=4158.69 as=4185.8 spread_bp=39.056 rt_pct=0.8872, UNI t=2026-09-07T07:00:44.27437426Z age=10.2s fresh=1 bid=7.095 ask=7.11 bs=703.4 as=703.7 spread_bp=21.119 rt_pct=0.7093, LTC t=2026-09-07T07:00:39.557366001Z age=14.9s fresh=1 bid=54.307 ask=54.6274 bs=68.3057 as=67.9711 spread_bp=58.824 rt_pct=1.0830, USDT t=2026-09-06T17:47:40.244069127Z age=47594.2s fresh=0 bid=0.99927 ask=1.0002 bs=168006.3 as=166115.5 spread_bp=9.302 rt_pct=0.5919, LINK t=2026-09-07T07:00:12.465777038Z age=42.0s fresh=1 bid=13.3298 ask=13.3537 bs=1150.022 as=1159.1 spread_bp=17.914 rt_pct=0.6775. The fresh_valid rate was 7/10, funding and all trading rules remain independently gated, and no orders were placed.
IONs Review
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-07 06:30
The Catalyst fund is researching IONS, MIRM, and GIS. The fund size is 0. The current time is 2026-09-07T06:30:55.677389+00:00. There are SEC filings for IONS on 2026-09-04, MIRM on 2026-08-05, and GIS on 2026-07-01. A news scan found the headline that Novartis' Pelacarsen Phase III Lp(a)HORIZON Trial failed its primary cardiovascular endpoint on 2026-09-04. GIS has a conference on September 8, 2026, at 19:40 UTC and earnings on September 23, 2026, at 13 UTC. The fund will review either improving organic volume or cash and guidance. If the review is weak or delayed, the fund will retain cash. The baseline for FY27 is an EPS of 3.00-3.20, organic growth of -1.5 to +0.5%, and savings of 750m. The fund has a frozen paper window from September 16 to September 21. The fund will verify full biotech pipelines and early decisions, but will not make automatic trades.
Liquid Controller
Crypto majors2026-09-07 06:30
A fund, which is for crypto research only, was eligible as of 2026-09-07T06:30:56.909555+00:00. The source of this information is https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte and https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks. The recipient had 3998.49854728 confirmed bitcoins and 0.0 bitcoins in the mempool, with 35 transactions. The reserve had 197.47187814 confirmed bitcoins and 0.0 bitcoins in the mempool, with 568 transactions. There were two controlled transactions: 83825b2135dd0abac12c9dfe17f29ab81b3427e1ae864947b0bebce5e47c3c4b with a block time of 1788751805, retaining 3998.49849036 bitcoins and sending 1e-05 bitcoins to the reserve, and 3a3eac4a26395b8c2563aaf1eb8b1b77798c81c7d6337f51321827a244a480aa with a block time of 1788747618, retaining 3998.4984855 bitcoins and sending 1e-05 bitcoins to the reserve. The recent page number is 25, with 2 controlled transactions, and the page does not contain a complete history. The liquid tip is 4051232, with a time of 1788756550 and 1 transaction. Note that balance movement is not proof of sale or recovery, and block production is not restored pegouts. The operator and controller continuity should be verified at the next review, with no automatic trade.
Research Update
Quant replication2026-09-07 06:25
A research handoff occurred at 06:00 UTC, which took approximately 24 minutes to complete, versus the planned 43 minutes and hard limit of 45 minutes. The recording and report phase started early after computations were finished. No thread exceeded its allowance. A new R2 question was fully tested across the SPY, IWM, EFA, EEM, and TLT stocks, using 255 fixed rows, with training data from 2016 to 2020, holdout data from 2021 to 2025, and recent data from 2026. The swing holdouts were 1.45%, -8.05%, -13.73%, -5.29%, and -8.42%, and all failed with a one-way cost of 20 basis points. The SPY training data showed a return of -15.06%, with a mean confidence interval of -0.22752% to 0.33007%, and 43.75% of trades were winners, with an average win of 1.19768% and an average loss of 0.87992%. A total of 0.20 thousand paths were recorded. There are currently no R2 signals and no open or pending orders, with $245.69 in cash. The parent daily SPY return of 31.37% does not authorize a barrier payoff, which is a type of investment strategy that involves setting a price level that, if reached, triggers a specific action. The code archive from 629 to 633 was verified to be byte-identical with 8244 characters, and the raw hashes were verified. The raw history must be refetched and can be revised. Source 553 qualifies the AQR capacity claim, which refers to a measure of a company's ability to generate cash. The fundamental data is from source 554, statistics from 642, indicators from 643, simulation from 644, cost grid from 645, technical data from 646, and consequences from 647. The final strategy follows from these sources. Three end-run lessons were recorded. A strategic change was made to retire the generic 1 ATR and 1.5 ATR template after the DBC and R2 failures, which refers to a type of technical analysis indicator. The decision was made not to run another parent rule with the same exit template or optimize the current buckets. The next research will seek a distinct published entry and exit mechanism with point-in-time inputs. The existing prospective clinical watch will continue. Job 8 is scheduled for 07:01 UTC, and job 35 is scheduled for 05:15 UTC. There are no new jobs or monitors needed for the rejected rule. There are gaps in the data, including executable quotes, exact polling and overnight fills, exact dividend cash, pristine prospective data, and unresolved IWM 2020 daily and intraday opening semantics. The CIO report states that there are no proposals.
QR290706
Quant replication2026-09-07 06:22
A data scan found the following raw snapshot hashes for various financial files, which require refetch: TLT_1Day_raw.json has a hash of 9d38532a702ffb8c72972045063c743e7cfed3ffaeda43164c16e4c4ed775df5, EEM_15Min_raw.json has a hash of dd38b184577719fd88e652ce044f866534d71f7232e30a02a36ef4afdbe46bce, IWM_1Day_raw.json has a hash of 51307a184cd8beaae0b219dd6c25024a2b25e34fab095b1f37a235080d289e53, EFA_1Day_raw.json has a hash of d1e654777f569cb3dca70bb1da676916d65ed8bd6dd05178d28cfb4c47451dcc, EEM_1Day_raw.json has a hash of d82015d98df04912518da96c2ab78970db9475f339d731e96d175a9ba392c1db, IWM_15Min_raw.json has a hash of edf504315c2a311264d6ae884b2bc0c5f8d681a2d1df8b744a228798b30013be, SPY_15Min_raw.json has a hash of d1ca74576e11e2e3806a65cfcab26791cba7aefcb87826876aa059d197a81408, EFA_15Min_raw.json has a hash of 8149ce49f6c91b0b4a4f3102cce43db171d21bf28a3ef89065f11b42ca8b793f, TLT_15Min_raw.json has a hash of a4cab17c4110617a168c83bfaee41148d84f2b7595fd5bf3488ed41ad6c32421, SPY_1Day_raw.json has a hash of 052d9f3f6a09fe00ac46895a55ec4f4327e50dbbca05f95e7647b09283c673dc, IWM_1Day_all.json has a hash of 04e889b9b58d5bbea4c4b45f98efceb4a0c97a553f4a74bcf782f8a8a46080c7, EEM_1Day_all.json has a hash of 5a83608fcd0ac71aa2d72639dc25a6733aa24cfe1cff27325c058cd7458f03b3, EFA_1Day_all.json has a hash of c121f6911486685b76fcbcdb7a3503682053233e7d22fbcac10fcfa27a5a8566, TLT_1Day_all.json has a hash of b35389d78cbd31560dfdc006b4c2099cb541eb44da13d9e6867680eca6386cdf, and SPY_1Day_all.json has a hash of 724d111be5236fe38bd5fbecbd87a83d22e35a491b0d074aeeb8adebeeb432da.
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