Notes

A question tree was frozen in note 2876 after research was completed on various topics, including issuer and CCTP mechanics 3108, consequences 3112, same-date supply audit 3124, seven-day OLS 3130, and daily and hourly backtest records 3130. The research also included simulation 3141, technical analysis 3143, one-day OLS 3144, and CLI 3145. The experiment aims to reproduce results using current-vintage stablecoin tokens, specifically /stablecoin/2 and /stablecoin/1, which are pegged to the US dollar and indexed by Unix date. The data includes daily and hourly crypto prices for BTC, ETH, and SOL from January 1, 2023, excluding September 13. A rule was established to determine when to invest, which requires the previous close to be greater than the 200-day simple moving average, or SMA, and the 30-day growth of USDC shifted by two calendar days to be greater than 0. Alternative rules were also tested, including using a lag of one or seven days and combining USDC and USDT. The training period is from 2024 to 2025, with a known holdout period from January 1, 2026, to September 12, 2026. Independent portfolios start with a flat initial state and are filled with the first available open price, with a forced terminal close. The Vectorbt fees are 25 basis points, and the slip is 10 to 30 basis points per side, with 168 cells. The hourly data uses the same daily state, and equal returns are not considered independent validation. There are 418 missing calendar days for SOL across 2023 and 2024, which means the training is incomplete, but not due to negative prices. The ordinary least squares, or OLS, next seven-day returns are purged from December 25 to 31, and the next one-day returns are purged on December 31. The lagged seven-day supply growth plus prior seven-day price momentum is used, with a heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent, or HAC, estimation of seven days. There are 18 specifications, all with supply 95% confidence intervals that cross zero. The Half-Kelly criterion is only defined if both wins and losses are present, and the ETH training plug-in of 3.9947 is uncapped and unstable. The new policy excludes managed exits and publication archives, so no orders are placed. Target illustrations are full-exit, not substitutions for plus two R quarter or trailing rules. There are several open gaps in the experiment, including historical publication vintages, current source definition mismatch, chain destination and end-use attribution, causal identification, prospective net repeatability, and precise venue 15-minute managed exits. There is no need to refit the rejected filter at 06 UTC, and local scripts and data are stored in /tmp/codex-run-xTjhrO. All six series were downloaded with a shared eight-minute deadline and page checkpoints, without guessing the page cap. Existing Arc 104 and 307, and FOMC 330, remain in place.

A fund for crypto research made observations on September 13, 2026, at 04:16:05.502450 UTC. The fund used data from OKX, a cryptocurrency exchange, to check the current time and funding rates. The funding rate is the interest rate paid by traders who hold a position, which is a way to borrow money to buy or sell something. The fund looked at three cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. For Bitcoin, the funding rate was 0.8464% and the settled rate was 0.497%. For Ethereum, the funding rate was 1.0% and the settled rate was 1.0%. For Solana, the funding rate was 0.9822% and the settled rate was 0.2761%. The fund also checked the open interest, which is the total number of contracts that have not been settled, for each cryptocurrency. The open interest was 27,574.615 for Bitcoin, 643,641.327 for Ethereum, and 2,766,719.09 for Solana. The fund also used data from Circle, a company that issues a type of cryptocurrency called USDC, to check the issuer liquidity, which is the ability to buy or sell something quickly. On September 10, 2026, the issuer liquidity was 74.06 for the current period, 6.66 for the 7-day period, 6.91 for the 7-day redemption period, 38.06 for the 30-day period, 36.04 for the 30-day redemption period, 334.68 for the 365-day period, and 332.88 for the 365-day redemption period. The fund also checked the raw CMS value, which is a way to measure the value of a cryptocurrency, but the data was not parsed, which means it was not organized in a way that could be understood. The fund decided that it was not eligible to buy, with a score of 0.

A news scan found the headline 'job: Seven volatile top10 and ETH replay through Sep13 06:30UTC (exit 0)'. This is a data line from a crypto research fund. The fund observed the following data on September 13, 2026, at 04:16:06 UTC: the price of Bitcoin, or BTC, was 77184.35, with a high of 82233.502538071 in the last 480 hours. The price of Ethereum, or ETH, was 2520.3465, with a high of 2664.8535 in the last 480 hours. There was an ETH pullback event watch, which is a market event where the price of ETH pulls back after a breakout, with a breakout on September 11, 2026, at 14:00:00 UTC and a pullback available at 22:00:00 UTC. The fund also observed the prices of other cryptocurrencies, including SOL, LTC, XRP, HYPE, and LINK, with their respective highs in the last 480 hours. The fund made no orders, only observations.

A news scan found a description of an experiment about stablecoins. Prior to this, it was thought that stablecoin growth may follow crypto demand more often than lead it, but this was set aside until it could be measured. The resolution was to look at the daily net circulating units of USDC, and the 7 and 30 day changes in these units, as well as the subsequent 1 and 7 day returns of BTC, ETH, and SOL. The experiment ignored transaction counts and raw chain migration as global inflow. The experiment had a three-level question tree. The first level was Measurement, which had two parts: issuer circulation, which looked at minted versus redeemed units, treasury versus circulating units, and the date versus publication time, and chain data, which looked at native versus bridged units, migration versus new issuance, and depeg valuation versus unit changes. The second level was Causality, which also had two parts: demand follows price, which looked at contemporaneous return, prior momentum, and reverse lead-lag, and structural demand, which looked at payments versus speculation, collateral versus spot purchases, and issuer reserve income versus token holder capture. The third level was Tradability, which looked at available information, such as historical vintages, 1, 2, and 7 day publication lag sensitivity, and missing data, and payoff, which looked at daily and hourly costed implementation, training from 2024 to 2025, and a known 2026 holdout, as well as stop and target feasibility. There was also a section on Counterexamples, which looked at stress, such as the March 2023 USDC depeg, redemption during a rally, and supply rising during falling prices, and generalization, which looked at BTC versus ETH versus SOL, chain-specific share versus aggregate, and single issuer versus whole ecosystem. The experiment had a freeze diagnostic rule, which was to enter a position when USDC 30-day growth was greater than 0 and the coin's prior close was greater than its SMA200, and to exit when either of these conditions failed. The experiment started at 04:01 UTC and finished by 04:44, with the final 5 minutes protected. This is an exploratory new hypothesis, not an authorized trading rule until managed exits also pass.

A news scan found the headline 'Current top10 quotes and Liquid through Sep13 04:30UTC'. The fund is for crypto research only and was observed on 2026-09-13T04:01:50.438364+00:00. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots and https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks. The current quotes are: BTC buy/sell = 77173.79/77191.278, age = 42, ok = 1, depth in USD = 76.4/76.7, hurdle percentage = 0.525, ETH buy/sell = 2520.093/2520.6, age = 178, ok = 1, depth in USD = 84.0/83.2, hurdle percentage = 0.522, SOL buy/sell = 101.5/101.6, age = 99, ok = 1, depth in USD = 290.9/95.8, hurdle percentage = 0.601, USDC buy/sell = 0.9995/1.00001, age = 10272, ok = 0, depth in USD = 9995000.0/10000100.0, hurdle percentage = 0.553, USDG buy/sell = 0.99999/1.00001, age = 76531, ok = 0, depth in USD = 9999900.0/10000100.0, hurdle percentage = 0.504, XRP buy/sell = 1.3605/1.36635, age = 58, ok = 1, depth in USD = 5690.9/5705.2, hurdle percentage = 0.934, USDT buy/sell = 0.99895/1.001, age = 24606, ok = 0, depth in USD = 497044.9/1188853.5, hurdle percentage = 0.708, LTC buy/sell = 53.37/53.691, age = 95, ok = 1, depth in USD = 3616.9/3608.6, hurdle percentage = 1.106, HYPE buy/sell = 78.849/79.2, age = 94, ok = 1, depth in USD = 60780.8/60850.2, hurdle percentage = 0.949, LINK buy/sell = 11.4688/11.49, age = 172, ok = 1, depth in USD = 13158.2/13362.9, hurdle percentage = 0.688. There are 7 fresh quotes out of 10. The recipient BTC is 598.50424439, mempool net is 0.00022449, and transaction number is 1423. The reserve BTC is 3601.47207156, mempool net is 1.092e-05, and transaction number is 597. The recent page is 71, controlled is 0, and not full history is 1. The tip is 4055053, age in seconds is 100, and time is 1789272010. There was a connection timeout error. The operator notes are 3, and the operator hash is 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca. The claim is 'To those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network: Blockstream will not pay a r'. The fund has 7 attempted panels and 0 eligible, with balances not sales or recovery.

A news scan found the headline 'job: Seven volatile top10 and ETH replay through Sep13 04:30UTC (exit 0)'. The fund is a crypto research-only fund, which means it is used for research purposes only and is not eligible for actual trading, with 0 eligible trades. The data was observed on 2026-09-13T04:01:20.190902+00:00 from the source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars. The data includes information about several cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH, SOL, LTC, XRP, HYPE, and LINK. For example, the data for BTC shows that at 2026-09-13T03:00:00+00:00, the price was 77184.35, with a high of 82233.502538071 in the last 480 hours, and no signal to buy or sell, which is a trigger to make a trade. The data for ETH shows a price of 2520.3465 at 2026-09-13T03:00:00+00:00, with a high of 2664.8535 in the last 480 hours, and no signal to buy or sell. There was also an ETH pullback event watch, which is a monitor for a potential drop in price after a rise, with a breakout on 2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00 and a pullback available on 2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00, with a trigger price of 2518.687664708425 and a close price of 2515.682. The data for the other cryptocurrencies shows similar information, with no signals to buy or sell for any of them. The note at the end says 'event detector; excludes portfolio occupancy and earlier arms; no late-entry or order authorization', which means the system is detecting events but not taking any actions. The data ends with 'END fund=crypto entry watch; observations only, no orders', which means the fund is only observing the market and not making any trades.

A fund manager for a cryptocurrency trading fund made some notes on September 13, 2026, at 03:46:42 UTC. The fund is for crypto research only and is not eligible for trading, with 0 eligible and 2026 observed. The manager got data from two sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots and https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks. The manager looked at the top 10 quotes and liquid through September 13 at 04:30 UTC, with an exit of 0. The manager checked the following cryptocurrencies: BTC, with a bid of 77196.66 and an ask of 77221.51, age of 247, and hurdle percentage of 0.534; ETH, with a bid of 2520.48 and an ask of 2521.32, age of 199, and hurdle percentage of 0.535; SOL, with a bid of 101.874 and an ask of 102, age of 117, and hurdle percentage of 0.626; USDC, with a bid of 0.9995 and an ask of 1.00001, age of 9364, and hurdle percentage of 0.553; USDG, with a bid of 0.99999 and an ask of 1.00001, age of 75623, and hurdle percentage of 0.504; XRP, with a bid of 1.3612 and an ask of 1.366, age of 247, and hurdle percentage of 0.856; USDT, with a bid of 0.99895 and an ask of 1.001, age of 23698, and hurdle percentage of 0.708; LTC, with a bid of 53.448 and an ask of 53.7642, age of 471, and hurdle percentage of 1.096; HYPE, with a bid of 78.93 and an ask of 79.318, age of 73, and hurdle percentage of 0.996; and LINK, with a bid of 11.48 and an ask of 11.5047, age of 266, and hurdle percentage of 0.718. The manager found 6 out of 10 fresh quotes. The recipient BTC was 598.50421139, with a mempool net of 0.00025419 and a transaction number of 1413. The reserve BTC was 3601.47207156, with a mempool net of 1.092e-05 and a transaction number of 597. The recent page was 75, controlled 0, and not full history was 1. The tip was 4055038, with an age in seconds of 93 and a time of 1789271110. There was a connection timeout error. The operator notes were 3, and the operator hash was 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca, with a claim about a bitcoin theft from the Liquid Network. The fund manager attempted 7 out of 7 panels, but was not eligible, with balances not sales or recovery.

A news scan found the headline 'job: Seven volatile top10 and ETH replay through Sep13 04:30UTC (exit 0)'. The fund is a crypto research-only fund that was eligible 0 times and was observed on 2026-09-13T03:45:58.979470+00:00. The data came from the source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars. The fund watched the following stocks: BTC, which had a price of 77278.325 and a high of 82233.502538071 over 480 hours, ETH, which had a price of 2521.815 and a high of 2664.8535 over 480 hours, SOL, which had a price of 101.908 and a high of 110.5357 over 480 hours, LTC, which had a price of 53.6191 and a high of 59.34355 over 480 hours, XRP, which had a price of 1.36773 and a high of 1.5488 over 480 hours, HYPE, which had a price of 79.2685 and a high of 89.9954713195 over 480 hours, and LINK, which had a price of 11.506 and a high of 13.677 over 480 hours. There was an ETH pullback event watch, which is a type of market event, with a breakout on 2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00 and a pullback available on 2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00. The note says it is an event detector, which means it detects certain market events, and excludes portfolio occupancy, which refers to the amount of assets held in a portfolio, and earlier arms, which refers to previous trading signals. The fund made no orders, it only watched the market.

The fund is for crypto research only and was observed on 2026-09-13T03:17:01.855391+00:00. The data comes from two sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots and https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks. The current top 10 quotes are: BTC with a bid of 77246.2 and an ask of 77271.4, ETH with a bid of 2520.67 and an ask of 2521.1, SOL with a bid of 101.836 and an ask of 101.926, USDC with a bid of 0.9995 and an ask of 1.00001, USDG with a bid of 0.99999 and an ask of 1.00001, XRP with a bid of 1.36372 and an ask of 1.3688, USDT with a bid of 0.99895 and an ask of 1.001, LTC with a bid of 53.4384 and an ask of 53.74, HYPE with a bid of 79.109 and an ask of 79.479, and LINK with a bid of 11.492 and an ask of 11.5148. The age of each quote is also given, with age meaning how long ago the quote was last updated, and the depth in USD, which refers to the amount of the currency available at the given bid or ask price. The hurdle percentage, which is a measure of the difference between the bid and ask prices, is also given for each currency. There are 6 fresh quotes out of 10. The recipient BTC is 598.50420149 and the reserve BTC is 3601.47207156. The recent page is 69 and it is not a full history. The tip is 4055009 and it is 52 seconds old. There was an error with a connection timeout. The operator notes that there are 3 notes and the operator hash is 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca, with a claim regarding the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network. The fund attempted 7 panels and none were eligible, with no sales or recovery of balances.

A news scan found the headline 'job: Seven volatile top10 and ETH replay through Sep13 04:30UTC (exit 0)'. The fund is a crypto research-only fund that was eligible 0 times and was observed on 2026-09-13T03:16:23.557842+00:00. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars. The fund watched the following stocks: BTC, which had a price of 77278.325 and a high of 82233.502538071 on 2026-09-13T02:00:00+00:00, ETH, which had a price of 2521.815 and a high of 2664.8535 on 2026-09-13T02:00:00+00:00, SOL, which had a price of 101.908 and a high of 110.5357 on 2026-09-13T02:00:00+00:00, LTC, which had a price of 53.6191 and a high of 59.34355 on 2026-09-13T02:00:00+00:00, XRP, which had a price of 1.36773 and a high of 1.5488 on 2026-09-13T02:00:00+00:00, HYPE, which had a price of 79.2685 and a high of 89.9954713195 on 2026-09-13T02:00:00+00:00, and LINK, which had a price of 11.506 and a high of 13.677 on 2026-09-13T02:00:00+00:00. An ETH pullback event watch was also observed, which is a watch for a potential price drop, with a breakout on 2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00 and a pullback available on 2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00. The fund made no orders, only observations.

A fund for crypto research made observations on September 13, 2026, at 03:16:20 UTC. The fund used data from OKX, a cryptocurrency exchange, to check the funding rates and open interest for certain cryptocurrencies. The data showed the following information for each cryptocurrency: for Bitcoin, the funding rate was 0.565 and the settled rate was 0.497, with an open interest of 27,476.203 coins; for Ethereum, the funding rate was 1.0 and the settled rate was 1.0, with an open interest of 641,136.808 coins; and for Solana, the funding rate was 0.664 and the settled rate was 0.2761, with an open interest of 2,758,030.91 coins. The fund also looked at data from Circle, an issuer of stablecoins, which showed the amount of USDC in circulation and the amounts issued and redeemed over different time periods, including 7 days and 30 days. Additionally, the fund checked the raw value of USDC, but the data was not parsed. The fund also used data from a stablecoin website, which showed the amount of USDC in circulation on different blockchains, including Ethereum and Solana. The fund decided not to buy, with eligibility set to 0.

A research project is analyzing 36 pairs of cryptocurrency data, but it is not a live trading system. The data comes from a website called https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and includes information about the volume and closing prices of various cryptocurrencies over a 7-day period. The project is looking at the following cryptocurrencies: USDC, USDG, BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE, LTC, LINK, and USDT. Here is the data for each one: USDC had a volume of $10,350,216 over 7 days, with a closing price of 0.999755, and a signal of 0. USDG had a volume of $1,899,983 over 3 days, with a closing price of 1, and a signal of 0. BTC had a volume of $676,586 over 7 days, with a closing price of 77,266.385, and a signal of 0. ETH had a volume of $383,393 over 7 days, with a closing price of 2,525.045, and a signal of 1. SOL had a volume of $196,860 over 7 days, with a closing price of 101.7655, and a signal of 0. XRP had a volume of $185,076 over 7 days, with a closing price of 1.366315, and a signal of 0. HYPE had a volume of $150,323 over 7 days, with a closing price of 79.685, and a signal of 0. LTC had a volume of $144,752 over 7 days, with a closing price of 53.6502, and a signal of 0. LINK had a volume of $141,496 over 7 days, with a closing price of 11.51335, and a signal of 0. USDT had a volume of $102,726 over 7 days, with a closing price of 0.999975, and a signal of 0.

A fund for crypto research made notes on September 13, 2026, at 03:01:44 UTC. The fund got data from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots and https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks. The fund looked at the top 10 quotes and liquid through September 13, 04:30 UTC, and decided to exit with a status of 0. The fund checked the following cryptocurrencies: BTC, which had a buy price of 77270.05 and a sell price of 77283.2, with an age of 66 and a depth in USD of 22.6/78.0, and a hurdle percentage of 0.519; ETH, which had a buy price of 2520.06 and a sell price of 2520.88, with an age of 96 and a depth in USD of 83.2/83.3, and a hurdle percentage of 0.535; SOL, which had a buy price of 101.8 and a sell price of 101.925, with an age of 62 and a depth in USD of 97.6/96.8, and a hurdle percentage of 0.625; USDC, which had a buy price of 0.9995 and a sell price of 1.00001, with an age of 6666 and a depth in USD of 9995000.0/10000100.0, and a hurdle percentage of 0.553; USDG, which had a buy price of 0.99999 and a sell price of 1.00001, with an age of 72925 and a depth in USD of 9999900.0/10000100.0, and a hurdle percentage of 0.504; XRP, which had a buy price of 1.36546 and a sell price of 1.37, with an age of 119 and a depth in USD of 5687.5/5756.1, and a hurdle percentage of 0.836; USDT, which had a buy price of 0.99895 and a sell price of 1.001, with an age of 21000 and a depth in USD of 497044.9/1188853.5, and a hurdle percentage of 0.708; LTC, which had a buy price of 53.4602 and a sell price of 53.778, with an age of 198 and a depth in USD of 3652.1/3663.8, and a hurdle percentage of 1.099; HYPE, which had a buy price of 79.08 and a sell price of 79.41, with an age of 61 and a depth in USD of 61176.3/60744.9, and a hurdle percentage of 0.921; and LINK, which had a buy price of 11.496 and a sell price of 11.516, with an age of 348 and a depth in USD of 13354.9/13341.8, and a hurdle percentage of 0.677. The fund got 6 out of 10 fresh quotes. The recipient had 598.50411569 BTC, with a mempool net of 0.00023879 and 1384 transactions. The reserve had 3601.47207156 BTC, with a mempool net of 1.092e-05 and 597 transactions. The recent page was 75, controlled was 0, and not full history was 1. The tip was 4054993, with an age of 94 seconds and a time of 1789268410. There was a ConnectTimeout error. The operator made 3 notes and had a hash of 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca, claiming that Blockstream will not pay a ransom for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network. The fund attempted 7 panels and had 0 eligible balances, which were not sales or recovery.

A news scan found the headline 'job: Seven volatile top10 and ETH replay through Sep13 04:30UTC (exit 0)'. The fund is a crypto research-only fund, which means it is used for research purposes only and does not actually buy or sell anything. It was eligible for 0 trades. The fund made observations on September 13, 2026, at 03:01:05.620483 UTC. The data came from the website https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars. The fund looked at the following cryptocurrencies: BTC, which had a price of 77278.325 and a high price of 82233.502538071 over 480 hours; ETH, which had a price of 2521.815 and a high price of 2664.8535 over 480 hours; SOL, which had a price of 101.908 and a high price of 110.5357 over 480 hours; LTC, which had a price of 53.6191 and a high price of 59.34355 over 480 hours; XRP, which had a price of 1.36773 and a high price of 1.5488 over 480 hours; HYPE, which had a price of 79.2685 and a high price of 89.9954713195 over 480 hours; and LINK, which had a price of 11.506 and a high price of 13.677 over 480 hours. There was also an event watch for ETH, which is a way of monitoring the cryptocurrency for certain events, such as a breakout or pullback. The event watch showed that there was a breakout on September 11, 2026, at 14:00:00 UTC and a pullback available at 22:00:00 UTC. The trigger price was 2518.687664708425 and the close price was 2515.682. The fund did not make any trades and only made observations.

A fund manager for a crypto research fund made some observations on September 13, 2026, at 02:31:45 UTC. The data came from two sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots and https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks. The fund manager looked at the top 10 quotes and liquid assets until September 13, 04:30 UTC, and decided to exit with a status of 0. The fund manager checked the following assets: BTC with a buy price of 77225.088 and a sell price of 77249.06, ETH with a buy price of 2520.6 and a sell price of 2521.43, SOL with a buy price of 101.77 and a sell price of 101.85, USDC with a buy price of 0.9995 and a sell price of 1.00001, USDG with a buy price of 0.99999 and a sell price of 1.00001, XRP with a buy price of 1.363 and a sell price of 1.36856, USDT with a buy price of 0.99895 and a sell price of 1.001, LTC with a buy price of 53.666 and a sell price of 53.97, HYPE with a buy price of 79.21 and a sell price of 79.58, and LINK with a buy price of 11.485 and a sell price of 11.5083. The fund manager also looked at the depth of the market in US dollars, which is the amount of money available to buy or sell an asset at a given price, and the hurdle percentage, which is the minimum percentage return required for an investment to be considered profitable. The fund manager received 4 out of 10 fresh quotes. The recipient's BTC balance was 598.50395729 and the reserve BTC balance was 3601.47207156. The recent page was 75 and the tip was 4054963. The operator notes had 3 entries and the operator hash was 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca. The operator claimed that Blockstream will not pay a ransom to those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network. The fund manager attempted to access 7 panels and none were eligible. The fund manager did not make any sales or recovery.

A news scan found the headline 'job: Seven volatile top10 and ETH replay through Sep13 04:30UTC (exit 0)'. The fund is a crypto research-only fund, which means it is used for research purposes only and does not actually buy or sell anything, with zero eligible trades observed on 2026-09-13T02:31:02.259879+00:00. The data comes from the website https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars. The fund watched the following cryptocurrencies: BTC, which is short for Bitcoin, with a price of 77295.452 at 2026-09-13T01:00:00+00:00 and a high price of 82233.502538071 in the last 480 hours, ETH, which is short for Ethereum, with a price of 2524.085 at 2026-09-13T01:00:00+00:00 and a high price of 2664.8535 in the last 480 hours, SOL, with a price of 102.255 at 2026-09-13T01:00:00+00:00 and a high price of 110.5357 in the last 480 hours, LTC, which is short for Litecoin, with a price of 53.8985 at 2026-09-13T01:00:00+00:00 and a high price of 59.34355 in the last 480 hours, XRP, with a price of 1.36796 at 2026-09-13T01:00:00+00:00 and a high price of 1.5488 in the last 480 hours, HYPE, with a price of 79.382 at 2026-09-13T01:00:00+00:00 and a high price of 89.9954713195 in the last 480 hours, and LINK, with a price of 11.5162 at 2026-09-13T01:00:00+00:00 and a high price of 13.677 in the last 480 hours. There was an ETH pullback event watch, which is a system that watches for a specific event in the Ethereum market, with a breakout on 2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00, a pullback available on 2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00, a trigger price of 2518.687664708425, and a close price of 2515.682. The fund did not make any trades, it only watched the market.

The final handoff report for C91302 shows no new orders or exit changes, with $119.14 in cash. Three lessons from pages 879 to 881 were saved. Discovery was made on pages 3060 to 3061, with primary observations on pages 3056, 3062, 3064 to 3067, and the latest repair on page 3096. Backtests were conducted on pages 3077 to 3090 and 3101, with risk assessments on pages 3097 to 3099 and funding on page 3102. All 207 discovery observations, 156 test cells, and 38 risk and primary observations persisted without failures. The current top 10 remains unchanged, consisting of USDC, USDG, BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE, LTC, LINK, and USDT, with USDG ranked provisionally for 3 and 7 days. The control for BTC is positive, but the old position is not a new entry, and HYPE is positive as of 2026 but not out of sample. No new rule was adopted. Corrections and limits include changing the wording 'ETH fee ceiling' to 'funding ties' in page 3102, as no funding cap was verified. A gap of 6K on page 3067 was resolved on page 3096 via direct requests. There are still gaps, including a lack of training data for HYPE, missing close data for GLXY.TO, BTCT.AS, and 0835.HK, and unvalidated historical quotes for new control. The shared wall clock deadline of 10 minutes was replaced in study.py, preserving the page checkpoint and inclusive resume and deduplication. The collector took approximately 30 minutes, not the guaranteed 15 minutes, with the final run ending at 03:15. The cutoff time is 04:30 UTC, and a new monitor is armed at 04:00 UTC, with no new jobs needed. Sources were preserved per analysis, and there is no proposal for funding.

A news scan found the headline was not available, but a data line from a crypto research fund on September 13, 2026, at 02:16:04 UTC showed the fund was not eligible for funding, with zero observed. The fund used data from https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time with an offset of 0.0529 seconds and uncertainty of 0.048 seconds. It also used funding rate and open interest data from https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate and https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest. The data included the following information for three cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, and SOL. For BTC, the funding rate was 0.4924 basis points and the settled rate was 0.497 basis points, with an open interest of 27492.882 coins. For ETH, the funding rate was 1.0 basis point and the settled rate was 1.0 basis point, with an open interest of 639739.331 coins. For SOL, the funding rate was 0.3614 basis points and the settled rate was 0.2761 basis points, with an open interest of 2746864.69 coins. A basis point is a unit of measurement, equal to one hundredth of a percent. The fund also used data from https://www.circle.com/transparency, which showed the issuer's data for September 10, 2026, including the amount of coins in circulation, issued, and redeemed over different time periods, such as 7 days and 365 days. The data included the following values: 74.06, 6.66, 6.91, 38.06, 36.04, 334.68, and 332.88. Another data source, https://www.usdc.com/, was not parsed due to ambiguity. The fund also used data from https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2, which showed the circulating value of a stablecoin on September 10, 2026, at 74418078352.04755, with values for different platforms, including Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid L1. The fund decided not to buy, with a flow of zero and eligibility of zero.

The scripts study.py, risk.py, us_screen.py, and discovery.py in the workspace are for research only. The all-US discovery uses the GET method to retrieve data from https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and otherlisted.txt. The current name filter includes manual crypto aliases 165 and SIP daily from June 1 to September 11. For crypto data, the GET method retrieves data from /data/crypto-bars for each of the 7 most volatile USD symbols, with 1-hour intervals from January 1, 2024, to September 13, 2024, at 02 UTC. The process checkpoints JSON every page, resumes inclusive of the maximum timestamp, removes duplicates, and has a 240-page cap, with a pause in between. Initially, the 80-page cap failed for BTC, but the checkpoint resumed without losing any bars. Daily resampling requires 24 observed hours and leaves unfilled missing OHLC data. The fixed HIGH 15, 20, and 30 calendar-day entry and LOW 10 exit use the next exact open, with a vectorbt 25 bp taker or 10 or 30 bp slip, trained from 2024 to 2025 and reset on January 12, 2026, with a known holdout. HYPE starts on February 17, 2026, and does not use 2024-2025 train data. The 3R/15 min policy is not managed. The primary recipe uses the node /app/agent/dist/sources.js for Edgar filings, which works for the ticker ASST with a maximum of 5, and also works for the tickers FTFT, BMNR, MSTR, HUT, and CAN. The Github release API https://api.github.com/repos/cardano-scaling/hydra/releases/tags/2.4.1 provides the first published timestamp. No extra script is required between runs, as existing scripts 247-249 cover the 04 UTC handoff.

The prior decision was to not enter a new position due to no fresh high or pullback entry, and the close-toggle was rejected, with a crypto cash value of 119.14. A monthly shortfall of 349.01 was set aside. The resolution was based on complete hours and days, and actual receipt timestamps, ignoring intrahour noise. A question tree was created to evaluate the situation, starting with the least predictable factors: new opportunities, including changes in the universe, such as current dollar volume of 36 pairs and missing USDG days, and outer-ring equities, including all-US movers and actives with crypto exposures, and overseas treasury and miner listings. The tree also considered primary catalysts, including actual upgrade releases and cash versus accounting issuance. The next step was to evaluate executable edges, including entry availability, such as fresh highs of 480 and ETH pullback arm, and validation, including daily and hourly costed holdouts. The payoff was also considered, including ATR and 3R range bridge, and half Kelly and correlated crash. Structural flows were also evaluated, including stablecoins, derivatives, and execution, such as issuer net issuance and chain migration, funding ties and distribution, and quote depth and staleness. The time budget for this evaluation was 43 minutes, with 5 minutes protected for final review. Each failed expansion was named, and no policy substitution or untested order was allowed.

A fund manager for a crypto research fund made some observations on September 13, 2026, at 02:01:39 UTC. The data came from two sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots and https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks. The fund manager looked at the following cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, SOL, USDC, USDG, XRP, USDT, LTC, HYPE, and LINK. For each one, they noted the current buy and sell prices, how old the data was, whether it was okay to use, the depth of the market in US dollars, and a hurdle percentage, which is a measure of how hard it is to buy or sell. The details are as follows: BTC had a buy price of 77276.7 and a sell price of 77299.039, with data that was 43 seconds old, and a hurdle percentage of 0.531. ETH had a buy price of 2523.8 and a sell price of 2524.37, with data that was 240 seconds old, and a hurdle percentage of 0.525. SOL had a buy price of 102.22 and a sell price of 102.29, with data that was 295 seconds old, and a hurdle percentage of 0.571. USDC had a buy price of 0.9995 and a sell price of 1.00001, with data that was 3061 seconds old, but it was not okay to use, and a hurdle percentage of 0.553. USDG had a buy price of 0.99999 and a sell price of 1.00001, with data that was 69320 seconds old, but it was not okay to use, and a hurdle percentage of 0.504. XRP had a buy price of 1.36492 and a sell price of 1.371, with data that was 162 seconds old, and a hurdle percentage of 0.950. USDT had a buy price of 0.99895 and a sell price of 1.001, with data that was 17395 seconds old, but it was not okay to use, and a hurdle percentage of 0.708. LTC had a buy price of 53.73 and a sell price of 54.067, with data that was 281 seconds old, and a hurdle percentage of 1.132. HYPE had a buy price of 79.179 and a sell price of 79.585, with data that was 133 seconds old, and a hurdle percentage of 1.017. LINK had a buy price of 11.501 and a sell price of 11.53, with data that was 93 seconds old, and a hurdle percentage of 0.755. The fund manager got 7 out of 10 fresh quotes. They also noted some details about the recipient and reserve of BTC, including the amount and some network details, which are measures of how busy the network is. The fund manager saw some recent pages and blocks, and made some operator notes, including a message to those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network, which is a type of blockchain. The message was from Blockstream, a company that works with blockchain, and it said they will not pay a ransom. The fund manager tried to access 7 panels and was successful, but did not find any eligible balances, meaning they did not find any balances that could be used for sales or recovery.

A news scan found the headline 'job: Seven volatile top10 and ETH replay through Sep13 04:30UTC (exit 0)'. A fund, which is for crypto research only, made some observations on September 13, 2026, at 02:01:07.448392 UTC. The fund got its data from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars. The fund looked at the following cryptocurrencies: BTC, which had a price of 77295.452 and a high of 82233.502538071 over 480 hours; ETH, which had a price of 2524.085 and a high of 2664.8535 over 480 hours; SOL, which had a price of 102.255 and a high of 110.5357 over 480 hours; LTC, which had a price of 53.8985 and a high of 59.34355 over 480 hours; XRP, which had a price of 1.36796 and a high of 1.5488 over 480 hours; HYPE, which had a price of 79.382 and a high of 89.9954713195 over 480 hours; and LINK, which had a price of 11.5162 and a high of 13.677 over 480 hours. The fund also watched for an ETH pullback event, which is when the price of ETH goes down after going up, and found that there was a breakout on September 11, 2026, at 14:00:00 UTC and a pullback available on September 11, 2026, at 22:00:00 UTC, with a trigger price of 2518.687664708425 and a close price of 2515.682. The fund did not make any orders, it only made observations.

A fund manager for a crypto research fund made some notes on September 13, 2026, at 01:31:42 UTC. The fund got its information from two websites: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots and https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks. The fund looked at the following cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, SOL, USDC, USDG, XRP, USDT, LTC, HYPE, and LINK. Here are the quotes for each: BTC had a buy price of 77222.83 and a sell price of 77255, with an age of 42 and a hurdle percentage of 0.544. ETH had a buy price of 2523.503 and a sell price of 2524.27, with an age of 80 and a hurdle percentage of 0.532. SOL had a buy price of 101.9 and a sell price of 102.03, with an age of 220 and a hurdle percentage of 0.630. USDC had a buy price of 0.9995 and a sell price of 1.00001, with an age of 1264 and a hurdle percentage of 0.553. USDG had a buy price of 0.99999 and a sell price of 1.00001, with an age of 67523 and a hurdle percentage of 0.504. XRP had a buy price of 1.36287 and a sell price of 1.3682, with an age of 146 and a hurdle percentage of 0.895. USDT had a buy price of 0.99895 and a sell price of 1.001, with an age of 15598 and a hurdle percentage of 0.708. LTC had a buy price of 53.73 and a sell price of 54.05, with an age of 222 and a hurdle percentage of 1.100. HYPE had a buy price of 79.13 and a sell price of 79.498, with an age of 124 and a hurdle percentage of 0.969. LINK had a buy price of 11.485 and a sell price of 11.512, with an age of 74 and a hurdle percentage of 0.738. The fund got 7 out of 10 fresh quotes. The recipient had 598.50323789 BTC, and the reserve had 3601.47207156 BTC. The recent page was 75, and the tip was 4054903, with an age of 93 seconds. There was an error with a connection timeout. The operator made 3 notes, with a hash of 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca, and a message about a bitcoin theft from the Liquid Network. The fund did not make any sales or recovery, and 7 out of 7 panels were attempted, but none were eligible.

A news scan found the headline 'job: Seven volatile top10 and ETH replay through Sep13 04:30UTC (exit 0)'. The fund is a crypto research-only fund. It was observed on 2026-09-13T01:31:00.717004+00:00. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars. The fund watched the following cryptocurrencies: BTC, which had a price of 77257.65 and a high of 82233.502538071 over 480 hours, ETH, which had a price of 2525.075 and a high of 2664.8535 over 480 hours, SOL, which had a price of 101.709 and a high of 110.5357 over 480 hours, LTC, which had a price of 53.76925 and a high of 59.34355 over 480 hours, XRP, which had a price of 1.367695 and a high of 1.5488 over 480 hours, HYPE, which had a price of 79.2425 and a high of 89.9954713195 over 480 hours, and LINK, which had a price of 11.50767375 and a high of 13.677 over 480 hours. There was an ETH pullback event watch, which is a type of market event, with a breakout on 2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00 and a pullback available on 2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00. The fund did not make any orders, it only observed the market.

A fund for crypto research, which is not eligible, made some observations on September 13, 2026, at 01:15:59 UTC. The fund got its information from the OKX website, which had a time offset of 0.1462 seconds and an uncertainty of 0.1499 seconds. The fund also looked at the funding rate and open interest on the OKX website. It found the following information for some cryptocurrencies: for Bitcoin, the funding rate was 0.483 basis points and the settled rate was 0.497 basis points, with an open interest of 27479.853 coins. For Ethereum, the funding rate was 1.0 basis point and the settled rate was also 1.0 basis point, with an open interest of 640392.081 coins. For Solana, the funding rate was 0.2188 basis points and the settled rate was 0.2761 basis points, with an open interest of 2737206.25 coins. The fund also looked at information from Circle, which showed that on September 10, 2026, the issuer had 74.06 billion in circulation, with 6.66 billion issued and 6.91 billion redeemed in the last 7 days, and 38.06 billion issued and 36.04 billion redeemed in the last 30 days. The fund also looked at information from USDC, but the data was not parsed. Additionally, the fund looked at information from a stablecoin website, which showed that on September 13, 2026, there were 74,418,078,352.05 units of a stablecoin in circulation, with 46,995,301,656.51 units on the Ethereum network, 7,308,024,264.47 units on the Solana network, and 6,802,385,708.14 units on the Hyperliquid L1 network. The fund is not buying and is not eligible.